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Started By
Message
re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:12 pm to Corinthians420
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:12 pm to Corinthians420
I would love to see P5 team go all in and go for 2 on every single TD no matter the situation.
1
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:19 pm to KosmoCramer
Oregon goes for 2 a lot. It isn't always the right decision mathematically though.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:38 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
but don't talk about it when it succeeds like the Titans/Dolphins game earlier this year.
I know you know regular season and playoff games are different…
It’s easy to gamble on two point conversions and such when you’re already eliminated or there’s 12 more games to go. It’s not so easy when that’s your season and your arse on the line.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:10 pm to Corinthians420
Going for 2 down 8 kept the Saints out of the playoffs and putting GB in Dallas to beat that arse, kept the Dolphins from winning the AFC East.
Teams went for 2 down 8 30% of the time this year in the NFL, so this wasn’t some new phenomenon.
It’s funny that everyone loves to cite “momentum and other voodoo” as a reason why you shouldn’t do it, but never acknowledges that going for 2 scares the shite out of the opponent, bc it puts the fear of losing into the team leading, adding more game pressure.
You should always lean towards doing what your opponent doesn’t want you to do. The end.
Teams went for 2 down 8 30% of the time this year in the NFL, so this wasn’t some new phenomenon.
It’s funny that everyone loves to cite “momentum and other voodoo” as a reason why you shouldn’t do it, but never acknowledges that going for 2 scares the shite out of the opponent, bc it puts the fear of losing into the team leading, adding more game pressure.
You should always lean towards doing what your opponent doesn’t want you to do. The end.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:11 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
It’s easy to gamble on two point conversions and such when you’re already eliminated or there’s 12 more games to go. It’s not so easy when that’s your season and your arse on the line.
Except it's not gambling.
In both situations the math is the same.
It's the same as doubling down on 11 with the dealer showing an 8. It makes sense whether you are betting a dollar or a million dollars.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 8:12 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:44 pm to theCAW
quote:But you only need to make 1, not 2.
compared to the probability of hitting 2 xp it is lower
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:46 pm to xenythx
quote:Show me the data for 2pt conversions late in games when the defense is tired, defense is injured and you've adjusted to the defenses play calling...
How many 2-pt conversions have been successful on the road, against a playoff worthy defense, late in the game after fatigue and some injuries have set in, after the other team has adjusted to your offensive playcalling, etc. etc.
Show me that data.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:49 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:Again, no good coach makes decisions with saving their arse as a higher priority than winning. If they do, they're not showing any leadership and aren't a coach who should be around much longer.
It’s easy to gamble on two point conversions and such when you’re already eliminated or there’s 12 more games to go. It’s not so easy when that’s your season and your arse on the line.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:18 pm to shel311
I’m just replying to what you posted, which is not correct math, actually not even close to the correct math the way you presented it…
quote:
Going for 2: - make the 1st one 50% of the time, you win - Miss 1st and 2nd 25% of the time, you lose - Miss 1st and make 2nd to get to OT 25% of the time.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:27 pm to JPLSU1981
And I'm just telling you to see the link I posted or any of the 5-10 posts with the same breakdown.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:29 pm to shel311
pretty surprising this thread is 8 pages. I thought this was kind of widely accepted already
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:30 pm to shel311
If you make the first 2 to be behind 6 - a team statistically based on empirical evidence - absolutely doesn’t have a 50% chance to win the game.
Of course you could focus on the minuscule sample size of those scenarios and get closer to your percentages, but the rest of us live in reality.
Of course you could focus on the minuscule sample size of those scenarios and get closer to your percentages, but the rest of us live in reality.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:33 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:You realize this thread is 8 pages of discussion assuming you're scoring 2 TDs, right?
If you make the first 2 to be behind 6 - a team statistically based on empirical evidence - absolutely doesn’t have a 50% chance to win the game.
I also didn't say you have a 50% chance of winning the game. I said you have a 50% chance of making the 1st 2pt conversion.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:34 pm to shel311
I quoted exactly what you posted.
Hence why I said your math was wrong.
I
the right answer as a coach here, I just know the Percentages you posted are wrong.
quote:
Going for 2: - make the 1st one 50% of the time, you win - Miss 1st and 2nd 25% of the time, you lose - Miss 1st and make 2nd to get to OT 25% of the time.
Hence why I said your math was wrong.
I
the right answer as a coach here, I just know the Percentages you posted are wrong. This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:35 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
If you make the first 2 to be behind 6 - a team statistically based on empirical evidence - absolutely doesn’t have a 50% chance to win the game.
the % you see aren't absolute. it's a percentage GIVEN THAT (this part is constant for all cases, thus ignored).
The "given that" in this case includes stopping the other team, getting the ball back and scoring another TD. So yeah all that lowers the actual odds, but that can be ignored when discussing scenarios that involve doing all that already.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:43 pm to Madking
quote:
Madking
When Madking is this adamant that he’s right the correct choice should be obvious to everyone else.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:45 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:Cool, it wasn't wrong. You seem to just not understand it.
Hence why I said your math was wrong.
Again, read the multiple posts on every page explaining the same thing to you, coach.
quote:You're correct, because 55% is the actual number, plus less than 100% for extra points.
the right answer as a coach here, I just know the Percentages you posted are wrong
Meaning, my numbers were on the conservative side, it's actually even stronger in reality the argument to go for 2. Is that what you were trying to explain to me?
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:46 pm to castorinho
I hear you, just making it clear you don’t have a 50% chance of winning when you make the first 2.
Because you don’t, as y’all are aware.
And if we’re just looking at those exact scenarios, the sample sizes are small…….very small.
Maybe I am misunderstanding you . When you go for 2 down 8, you do NOT win 50% of the time.
Because you don’t, as y’all are aware.
And if we’re just looking at those exact scenarios, the sample sizes are small…….very small.
Maybe I am misunderstanding you . When you go for 2 down 8, you do NOT win 50% of the time.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:51 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
I hear you, just making it clear you don’t have a 50% chance of winning when you make the first 2.
You have a low chance of winning down 6-7-8 with 6ish minutes to go regardless, but being down 6 is considerably better than being down 8.
The examples posted in here are simplified for discussion because this board struggles to understand basic math.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:53 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Maybe I am misunderstanding you . When you go for 2 down 8, you do NOT win 50% of the time.
There is an assumption that you stop the other team and score a TD again. If you don’t stop them and score again the 2pt vs 1pt is irrelevant.
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