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re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:15 pm to theCAW
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:15 pm to theCAW
Mathematically it makes sense sure if you assume 50% odds but not sure where this percent is coming from besides people saying “you either make it or you don’t”
What I see is a high risk high reward strategy. If your kicker sucks it’s the right move.
What I see is a high risk high reward strategy. If your kicker sucks it’s the right move.
2
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:18 pm to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
Not necessarily. That's the frequentist argument but every situation is different.
Nope - math is math. But I get the average football fan hates math.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:46 pm to theCAW
quote:
Mathematically it makes sense sure if you assume 50% odds but not sure where this percent is coming from
In 2023, teams were successful on 2-point conversions 70 out of 127 times (55%).
we are rounding down from 55% to 50%. even rounding down it still makes sense to go for it
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:51 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Nope - math is math. But I get the average football fan hates math.
i'd love to see some of these people play blackjack.
they would call you an idiot for doubling down on 11 when the dealer was showing a 5 if it lost.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:08 pm to Corinthians420
quote:
2023, teams were successful on 2-point conversions 70 out of 127 times (55%). we are rounding down from 55% to 50%. even rounding down it still makes sense to go for it
Here are stats per team ranking.com
LINK
Tampa converted at 40% overall with 33.3% on the road for 2023
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:08 pm to theCAW
It works even if you’re bad at 2 point conversion success rate with 40%.
Assuming you make your kicks:
Scenario 1 - Go for it, get it (40%); kick it next time - 40% win
Scenario 2 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, get it (40%) - OT - 24% of the time; split the wins 12% each
Scenario 3 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, don’t get it (60%) - 36% loss
So 52% vs. 48%. Again, this is if you’re bad at 2 point conversions and have XPs as a guaranteed make the math still tells you to go for it.
I feel like when people don’t understand the math they just tend to call it analytics.
Assuming you make your kicks:
Scenario 1 - Go for it, get it (40%); kick it next time - 40% win
Scenario 2 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, get it (40%) - OT - 24% of the time; split the wins 12% each
Scenario 3 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, don’t get it (60%) - 36% loss
So 52% vs. 48%. Again, this is if you’re bad at 2 point conversions and have XPs as a guaranteed make the math still tells you to go for it.
I feel like when people don’t understand the math they just tend to call it analytics.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:10 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:what about a 33.3% success rate on the road?
It works even if you’re bad at 2 point conversion success rate with 40%.
LINK
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:22 pm to theCAW
How many times did they go for it on the road?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:26 pm to theCAW
The math makes sense if you want to win in regulation. You go for it on the first TD when down 14 in the 4th, and if you get it you’re in a position to take the lead with a 2nd TD and only an XP. If you don’t get it you’re still in a position to tie on the 2nd TD with a 2 point.
On the road, against an offense the Bucs were really struggling to stop, I’m guessing Bowles wanted to avoid OT if possible.
Therefore, he went for 2 after the TD.
On the road, against an offense the Bucs were really struggling to stop, I’m guessing Bowles wanted to avoid OT if possible.
Therefore, he went for 2 after the TD.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:53 pm to theCAW
quote:
what about a 33.3% success rate on the road?
it was 50% until this weekend
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:00 pm to shel311
Not the correct math BTW
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:04 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:See the link I posted on page 3
Not the correct math BTW
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:06 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:I'm sure there are some scenarios
. Should teams ever go for 2 before the 4th quarter?
quote:Not really the right question but coaches have decreased their chances of winning, sure.
Do you think a game has ever been lost because teams don’t go for 2 in (nonobvious) situations before the 4th quarter?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:07 pm to DownSouthCrawfish
The real time situation should override the abstract analytics
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:13 pm to VOR
quote:
The real time situation should override the abstract analytics
what about the real time situation would change things to where giving yourself a 50% chance to win isn't better than giving yourself a chance to go to overtime where you would have a slightly less than 50% chance to win (they were road underdogs)?
if you have a problem with anything it should be the 2 pt playcall, not the decision to attempt a 2 pt conversion.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 6:16 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:25 pm to Corinthians420
quote:
it was 50% until this weekend
That huge of a variance should clearly tell you that there is not enough data for anyone to so confidently claim one way or the other is the right thing to do.
We’re not talking about 3-pointers vs 2-pointers in basketball where there are millions of points of data in every imaginable scenario.
How many 2-pt conversions have been successful on the road, against a playoff worthy defense, late in the game after fatigue and some injuries have set in, after the other team has adjusted to your offensive playcalling, etc. etc.
Show me that data.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:27 pm to theCAW
quote:If you were forced to get your life savings on a coin flip, would you prefer 1 flip and if you lose, you lose... Or would you prefer a 2nd chance if you lose the first one to get back to even?
If you’re really adamant on playing to win/lose in regulation put all the chips on the second attempt.
quote:50% is low probability?
Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:31 pm to CatfishJohn
quote:There's a book called Scorecasting, it debunks this theory.
If you've had 5 great shots in a row, confidence is high, thus more likely to succeed.
The hot hand does not exist.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:01 pm to shel311
quote:compared to the probability of hitting 2 xp it is lower
50% is low probability?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:10 pm to xenythx
quote:
How many 2-pt conversions have been successful on the road, against a playoff worthy defense, late in the game after fatigue and some injuries have set in, after the other team has adjusted to your offensive playcalling, etc. etc.
Show me that data.
none of this matters since going for 2 gives you the best chance to win. figuring out how to convert the 2 is on your coach/team.
the odds for the season were 55% of converting a 2 pt conversion. anything above a 40% chance to convert is a bonus when it comes to giving you a better chance to win.
we just watched the Bills kicker miss what was basically an extra pt to cost them a chance to go to OT.
if you want to win, you have to figure out how to convert these "50/50" situations.
if you just wanna let the other team have a better chance to win because you don't feel like you are good enough to execute, then you dont deserve to win anyway.
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