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re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:37 pm to slackster
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:37 pm to slackster
quote:do you have posters of fauci on your wall?
Yeah I understand why people think it’s real - I played sports too - but it just isn’t readily apparent in the data. Most examples of momentum are cherry picked and can be easily explained by random chance.
0
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:38 pm to CalLSU
quote:
I understand analytics
Apparently not.
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 6:39 pm
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:43 pm to CalLSU
what team please?
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:46 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
It's proved because sports is played by people who are human.
Ask Freud. Being insecure, as humans are, can lead to performance failure... When the opponent shocks your ego...and the tables get turned and dominoes fall.
If its so obvious and prevalent, there should be numerous definitively proving these statements. Got a link to those studies?
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:55 pm to shel311
quote:
Going for 2: - make the 1st one 50% of the time, you win - Miss 1st and 2nd 25% of the time, you lose - Miss 1st and make 2nd to get to OT 25% of the time.
No coach wants to be the one that missed two 2 point conversions when two extra points would have tied the game
Ultimately as a coach your goal is to give the players a chance to win the game. They get the credit if you win and the coaches get the blame if you lose
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 1/21/24 at 7:27 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:A good coach understands vision and true leadership
No coach wants to be the one that missed two 2 point conversions when two extra points would have tied the game
A good coach will play to give his team the best chance to win a game, not to coach and make decisions based on what will give him the least amount of backlash.
Posted on 1/21/24 at 7:48 pm to shel311
Posted on 1/21/24 at 7:49 pm to shel311
Doesn’t account for missed extra points which is another variable
Posted on 1/21/24 at 7:49 pm to CalLSU
Agree 100%. Kick the extra point and if you score again THEN you decide if you want to go for 2 and the win or kick the extra point. But to make yourself now have to get a 2 pt conversion just to tie is stupid.
Posted on 1/21/24 at 7:54 pm to shel311
quote:that is the dumbest shite ever there’s no 50-50 odds of making it or not it’s not a frickibg coin flip there’s hundreds if not thousands of variables that would change the probability and percentages of converting the short yardage play
Here's a good breakdown of the math.
Saying it’s 50-50 is absolutely dumb and lazy
There probably is some mathematical way to justify it but that ain’t it
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 1/21/24 at 8:02 pm to theCAW
You only have to convert at a 47.6% rate to make it the correct decision every time, not even in this situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:04 am to Gordon Hayward
He did against dallas
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:06 am to shel311
quote:
good coach will play to give his team the best chance to win a game, not to coach and make decisions based on what will give him the least amount of backlash.
So two questions here…
1. Should teams ever go for 2 before the 4th quarter?
2. Do you think a game has ever been lost because teams don’t go for 2 in (nonobvious) situations before the 4th quarter?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:28 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
1. Should teams ever go for 2 before the 4th quarter?
2. Do you think a game has ever been lost because teams don’t go for 2 in (nonobvious) situations before the 4th quarter?
1) The answer is NO, except in one situation. If you are down 24, going for 2 in the third quarter makes sense because you need 3 8's to tie.
2) Absolutely games have been lost, or at least altered, because coaches chase points early in the game.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 10:01 am to LSUGrad9295
quote:
2) Absolutely games have been lost, or at least altered, because coaches chase points early in the game.
Have they ever been lost because coaches DIDN’T chase points though?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 10:49 am to slackster
quote:
-8 margin after the TD says you go for 2 every time after halftime.
Actually, there appears to be a few data points past the mid-way point for the 4thQ where this chart says to kick it when you are trailing by 8. The graph you included doesn't have minute marks at the bottom, but it looks like it could have been close to when TB tried to go for 2 there.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 12:51 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
Have they ever been lost because coaches DIDN’T chase points though?
That's purely hypothetical, because you are asssuming they would convert the 2 point conversions.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 12:54 pm to CalLSU
quote:
I understand the analytics of it but think it’s such a dumb thing that has become popular lately. I just don’t get it. Kick the dumb extra point and make it a 7 point game
So you don't understand the analytics.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:02 pm to tigerinthebayou
quote:
Agree 100%. Kick the extra point and if you score again THEN you decide if you want to go for 2 and the win or kick the extra point. But to make yourself now have to get a 2 pt conversion just to tie is stupid.
This is so stupid its unfathomable. In that case of going for it after the second, you would lose if you miss the 2 point conversion there. If you miss the first one, you have a chance to get the second one.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:11 pm to TheSexecutioner
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 1:13 pm
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