re: Dave Aranda has to be fired today or after next week, right?

Some analytics on defensive efficiency for the LSU crowd that wants Aranda back and the skeptics arguing with them.

LSU Rankings in DF+ under Aranda:
2016: 2nd
2017: 18th
2018: 5th
2019: 13th

4 years since:
2020: 58th
2021: 39th
2022: 18th
2023: 82nd (not including week 12)

4 years before:
2015: 19th
2014: 5th
2013: 18th
2012: 4th

quote:

---

Fine. Aranda gave up just 24 pts and 375 yards to a Vanderbilt team that was shutout by ETSU. Happy?

---

First, don't lie about Dave. Second, 14% of Vandy's yards came on one play. Third, why don't you post all the other games after the defense became healthy where we held several top teams to less yards and points than your beloved Vandy.

quote:

---

The crowds have been atrocious and my buddy cancelled his season tickets for next year. Apathy is strong.

---

I don’t follow it enough to know what the problem is. But I do wonder if recruiting is a problem. Cause Matt Rhule was a relentless recruiter and Aranda’s best defensive team at Baylor was full of good players Rhule brought in.

Aranda was great at making half time or in-game adjustments. We havent seen any of that this year. (even i was screaming at the tv to put a spy on Alabama's QB by the 2nd quarter.)

His poor recruiting is overstated. I think he's just a different style recruiter. He's more like BK and will have a professional/mature recruiting pitch that will apeal to some guys more than others. As opposed to Coach O that will make a ton of promises, rah rah stuff, tell them anything they want to hear. (this approach leads to a lot of selfish players on the team if you havent noticed).

Agreed. Also keep in mind the game has swung towards offenses, especially in the last 5-10 years. Nobody has a shut down defense anymore, those days are over.
But dialing up a successful blitz, or getting an occasional sack or turnover or somehow back into a 3rd down stop , would be enough to win big with the offense we have this year.

quote:

---

People keep forgetting that Aranda wasn’t a recruiter and talent is a major issue currently.

I love dave but we need a guy who hammers the recruiting trail too.

---

A good head coach can balance those scales with position coaches who excel at recruiting.

quote:

---

I don’t follow it enough to know what the problem is. But I do wonder if recruiting is a problem. Cause Matt Rhule was a relentless recruiter and Aranda’s best defensive team at Baylor was full of good players Rhule brought in.

---

It's a multitude of things really. For starters, we are in Aranda's fourth year and the direction of the program is a downward spiral. Really from the back half of last season and carry forward into this year.

The team has 0 energy. Honestly these guys don't even appear to want to be playing football when the game starts. No excitement in this team and I'm afraid it's a direct reflection of Aranda.

Recruiting has been tough but we honestly made it tougher on ourselves. For starters, we were late to the NIL game and have only now just caught up but that was after losing a couple key recruits to larger schools late in the recruiting process the past two years. I don't put all of the blame on Aranda though, the AD is equally responsible.

Once we did get NIL going (just this season) Aranda has this "person over player" motto which is fine but he insisted on equal distribution of NIL amongst all scholarship players. Dave has good and sincere intentions but the consequences include our best players being unsettled and we aren't helping ourselves with this motto when trying to recruit from the portal (which we only recently started using more).

We were also were slow to adopt the strategy of recruiting from the portal. Dave has since realized this mistake but we won the Big 12 Championship under Aranda (with Rhule's recruits) and then did nothing to capitalize in recruiting. In fact our recruiting rankings have only continued to decline and we weren't quick to fill needs with the portal.

Honestly Dave is a great guy and good coach. Running a college football program might not be his cup of tea. I just feel bad for him because he wants to do what's right and he want's to do things the right way but the outcome has been poor.

The general thought is he won't be fired until after the last game of the season because the buyout goes down.

quote:

---

Honestly Dave is a great guy and good coach. Running a college football program might not be his cup of tea. I just feel bad for him because he wants to do what's right and he want's to do things the right way but the outcome has been poor.

---

Great post & insight. The only way I could've seen Aranda failing as a HC is him being too ethical and refusing to play dirty enough to win. It sounds like that's what's happened here.