re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

quote:

---

TDS on the storm approaching Jacksboro, TX.

---

quote:

---

The threat of discrete supercells is the threat that would maximize the parameters and produce large tornadoes and hail. It is not a certainty those will fire, but if they do, they really have very high end potential. The most likely locations for those cells would be along and north of US 190 and I12 and really maturing as they enter Mississippi. Some convective allowing models show those cells forming farther east into western Alabama, and they would provide the same high end threat over there if they do. This is not to say areas south of US 190 won’t have these dangerous prefrontal storms, just that the areas north look far more likely.

Follow that threat will be a strong line of storms that will present a damaging straight line wind, embedded tornado, and hail threat. Once again, the most likely locations for that will be in the moderate risk zone of the SPC chart shown near the top of the post but anywhere in the risk region could see those threats materialize from this line. So stay weather aware tomorrow, have a plan if a tornado threatens your area, and have multiple ways to receive warnings.

---

quote:

---

Apple. Sized. Hail.

---

quote:

---

You can really see her legs spread

---