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Started By
Message
re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:01 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:01 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
We don't parse our words that tightly, and we shouldn't have to.
Again, tell that to LSU Russian. He is literally at the top of the list on any of these boards for posters who do such things.
1
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:04 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Really? So why are other posters telling you to take a hike??
It's turned into someone finally calling this guy on his bullshite.
Could it be they are tired of reading your whiny, word parsing, nit picky posts in your effort to save face?
Or maybe you have no credibility on any topic in this thread?
Or is it because they don't trust someone who thinks an investment firm gaining $30 billion in assets in one quarter is really something remarkable but the same firm losing $100 billion the next quarter is no big deal?
Or could it be they just don't want to read what someone posts who can't tell the difference between $350 million and $500 million when he's quoting his own link because they have learned you will lie?!
I'm going to go with "All Of The Above."
Have fun making a fool out of yourself. You'll have to do it without me helping you any more.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:05 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
"damn near"
Sounds like a degree of risk tolerance.
One man's "Damn near" is another man's "not even close".
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:05 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
I don't have a dog in this hunt. For future reference, if you want to hang on every word I type, please give me forewarning.
I've been known to type fast and loose.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:06 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:You mean this bullshite. ETA: Which honestly you could be the bullshitter; I don't have a dog in this fight, and I don't have much background in these matters. Hence why I'm here.
It's turned into someone finally calling this guy on his bullshite
He's also under the false impression that a specific group of posters stalk him and downvote him everywhere he goes. It's a product of his paranoia and narcissism rolled into one.
But he knows his stuff when it comes to finance and Russia. Is he always right? Of course not. Who is? The issue I find when trying to have a dialogue with him is that there's very little give and take like most discussions have. It's like he's afraid to give up any ground. Usually, when faced with a situation where he's proven wrong, he'll resort to tactics that move away from the original topic: grammar and syntax of posts, pretending to ignore specific points, name-calling, etc. ETA: Not here, though. Which makes me think you're the one full of shite.
It will be interesting if he responds to this. He's sworn that he'll ignore me from now on. And he knows I was reading this thread weeks ago and that I was looking for it earlier today. But he's fixated on the notion that I follow him around; I don't know why. Many of his threads, especially here and the Money Talk are interesting. Why wouldn't I read them?
But, alas, here we are. Back to Russia, though. This all fascinates me. It almost seems surreal the way this is going down in the information age. I'm referring to Putin and his tactics that are so Cold-Waresque.
This post was edited on 12/16/14 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:07 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:Correct. That's technical financial jargon only those in the financial industry can comprehend.
"damn near"
Sounds like a degree of risk tolerance.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:22 pm to LSURussian
Reuters
quote:
The rouble plunged more than 11 percent against the dollar on Tuesday in its steepest intraday fall since the Russian financial crisis in 1998
quote:
It has now fallen close to 20 percent this week, taking its losses this year against the dollar to more than 50 percent and stirring memories of the 1998 crisis when the currency collapsed within a matter of days, forcing Russia to default on its debt.
quote:
analysts say the country is on the brink of a full-blown currency crisis.
quote:
The 650-basis-point rate hike, less than a week after another 100-basis-point rise, was seen as a sign of desperation by the bank, whose Governor Elvira Nabiullina now appears powerless to stop the currency's slide,
quote:
The central bank's First Deputy Governor Sergei Shvetsov said the bank would implement more measures to stabilize the currency market, calling the situation "critical".
quote:
analysts say the currency is in dangerous territory as it is increasingly being driven down by sheer panic.
quote:
"What now rules the Russian currency is not oil, or even waiting for it to move, but panic fueled by a large number of rumors about the return of our country to the "98-year" regime," said Alena Afanasyeva, a senior analyst at Forex Club in Moscow, referring to the 1998 crisis.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:24 pm to LSURussian
quote:
This all fascinates me. It almost seems surreal the way this is going down in the information age. I'm referring to Putin and his tactics that are so Cold-Waresque.
It is one of the oldest tools in the political arsenal, the dreaded Wizard of Oz gambit.
Pay no attention to this looming crisis, look over there at those damn (fill in the blank with ethnic minority or foreign rival).
I think Putin has held onto power because Russia's economy showed signs of life for the first time in a while, now that it seems to have run out of steam that broad political support he depends on has to look pretty darn shaky.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:28 pm to Arksulli
It might look fragile from the outside, but that may not be how it's viewed from the inside. That may seem odd, and that's because it is. Russians are, if anything, very different from us in their worldview.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 4:32 pm to ell_13
Read the Reuter's link. He better do something soon. I wonder if the OPEC production gambit is aimed at him, our fracking industry or a little of both.....
The enemy of my enemy ...........
The enemy of my enemy ...........
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:01 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:Earlier in this thread I wrote: "It the ruble is allowed to freely float, it will probably drop by a double digit percentage decline within a week." Obviously I was way too conservative with my prediction. The ruble fell by a double digit decline in just one day.
The rouble plunged more than 11 percent against the dollar on Tuesday in its steepest intraday fall since the Russian financial crisis in 1998
LINK
quote:Sergei is on borrowed time. Don't drink the tea, Sergei!!! Polonium-210 is tasteless!!!
The central bank's First Deputy Governor Sergei Shvetsov
quote:"The market ignored....."
The market ignored Nabiullina's comments on Tuesday that the rouble was undervalued, as well as comments by Putin's spokesman that the rouble fall was driven largely by a speculative mood.
That's the part that Russians can't comprehend. It's just not in their DNA to think a market can refuse to do what government leaders tell it to do.
It's very similar to when a Central Bank of Russia Deputy Governor told me he knew there was no money laundering going on in Russian banks because the Russian Duma had passed a law outlawing money laundering.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:07 pm to LSURussian
Thanks! 
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:41 pm to ell_13
quote:Which makes him part of an elite rogue's gallery of villains known as "Pretty Much Everyone Who Has Ever Argued On The Internet Yes Including You"
Usually, when faced with a situation where he's proven wrong, he'll resort to tactics that move away from the original topic: grammar and syntax of posts, pretending to ignore specific points, name-calling, etc.
This post was edited on 12/16/14 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:51 pm to ell_13
quote:
But he knows his stuff when it comes to finance and Russia. Is he always right? Of course not. Who is? The issue I find when trying to have a dialogue with him is that there's very little give and take like most discussions have. It's like he's afraid to give up any ground. Usually, when faced with a situation where he's proven wrong, he'll resort to tactics that move away from the original topic: grammar and syntax of posts, pretending to ignore specific points, name-calling, etc. ETA: Not here, though. Which makes me think you're the one full of shite.
But he HAS done EXACTLY that here. Sure, he knows about Russia (just ask him). That doesn't give him free reign to spout utter nonsense. You can see that he is entirely unwilling to give any ground when shown to be objectively wrong.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:54 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Or is it because they don't trust someone who thinks an investment firm gaining $30 billion in assets in one quarter is really something remarkable but the same firm losing $100 billion the next quarter is no big deal?
Continue with the dissembling. I said no such thing. I simply pointed out that CONTRARY TO YOUR bullshite ASSERTION, PIMCO was NOT languishing under a poor rates bet by Gross - they were in fact trending ever higher in AUM (I believe to an alltime high, but not sure) on the heels of better-than-industry-average performance. It's your inherent dishonesty that continues to misportray it.
quote:
Or could it be they just don't want to read what someone posts who can't tell the difference between $350 million and $500 million when he's quoting his own link because they have learned you will lie?!
Typo. Get over it.
quote:
Have fun making a fool out of yourself. You'll have to do it without me helping you any more.
Translation: You're a huge pussy who won't step up to the plate. I offered you a very simple Perma-Ban proposition based on your ABSURD LIES.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:57 pm to Iosh
quote:
Which makes him part of an elite rogue's gallery
So you do admit that is what he's done here?
Iosh, answer me this: if you believe it was 100% chance Russia was going to default in the next year, why would you not go out of your way to buy CDS that implied the same chance was only 4%? You're getting 24:1 odds with a KNOWN DOWNSIDE = to the premium you have to pay over the life of the contract. This is exactly the sort of asymmetric dream bet any investor would be looking to get on. Certainly you have an answer for me better than "you don't understand Russia".
Posted on 12/16/14 at 5:58 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The last time Russia defaulted on its debt was in 1998.
we'll be defaulting on our debt before long too... we aren't that different from Russia.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 6:00 pm to Jagd Tiger
quote:
we'll be defaulting on our debt before long too... we aren't that different from Russia.
That's a silly assertion and I will happily join Russian in his soon-to-be destruction and dismissal of your nonsense claim. It's even stupider than what he said about PIMCO.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 6:40 pm to LSURussian
quote:I mean know about it ahead of time,
"Know" about it? You don't think the "average Russian" knew about the 1998 default when 100% of the Russian banks refused to open their doors the day after the default was announced?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 6:43 pm to Roaad
Since thay have had fairly recent experience with their government defaulting you may be correct. They can probably recognize the increasing indications that what happened in 1998 might be happening again.
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