re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months

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I have not claimed my OP has "come to pass." I've only said that now the possibility of Russia defaulting is being mentioned in the media when it wasn't when I first started this thread two and half months ago.

Why do you feel the need to lie about it? Are you that desperate to be right about something you know very little about?

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Interesting discussion on CNBC. Bill Gross and others drawing contrasts with 1998, mainly in terms of debt differences then vs now. Consensus was Russia won't default.

(Probably means Gross has money tied up over there )

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I've only said that now the possibility of Russia defaulting is being mentioned in the media when it wasn't when I first started this thread two and half months ago.

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And I've given you several instances of others talking explicitly about the possibility of it prior to this thread - others who didn't have benefit of anonymity on sports message boards.

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And yet you're ridiculing him for being "out of phase" with the global markets

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No, I've asked him to explain why he thinks the CDS markets are so out of phase with the certainty of his predictions. Why do you act like that is some crazy point to be clarified?

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while at the same time saying his prediction was nothing special based on some back page speculation about risk.

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What I'm saying is easy: it's not like he's the only person in the world that thinks about a potential Russian default. So he started a thread saying they would default. And I want to know what he knows that is so much more relevant than whatever package of global info that is going into CDS pricing.

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Doesn't change the fact that someone investing based on that view is making money right now. Someone with a naked CDS position, shorting the ruble, buying an inverse Russian ETF, is way up. RUSSIA DEATHWATCH is now front page financial news as opposed to back page speculation.

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Yes and no. Let's be very clear that what's happening now is based on the movement in oil prices - a consideration that appears to be conspicuously absent from the OP. Which global commentator that you know of would not predict Russian stress if they were given info that oil prices collapsed by almost 50% in a few months time?

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For the life of me I cannot figure out why this thread is rustling your jimmies so much.

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Mostly his refusal to answer direct questions about what he knows (if anything) and why he thinks the markets aren't taking it into account. You honestly aren't interested in that info at all? I mean, I want to make some money off of this thing. I totally agree that Russia is a shite hole that is probably not a great credit risk.

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And I've given you several instances of others talking explicitly about the possibility of it prior to this thread -

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"Several"?? Do you mean "two"? And one of your links was about Poland and Ukraine defaulting, not Russia. In fact it said explicitly there was almost no risk of Russia defaulting.

The first link you gave, the one from July, mentioned that default risk had increased for Russia but nowhere in it did it predict Russia would default.

What is your deal? You're really starting to bore me.....

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Not like you think they do. Many websites are blocked in Russia. And all of the media is government controlled again.

It's how Putin keeps the internal opposition suppressed.

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Is Pussy Riot out of jail yet?

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The Russians are the best in the world at obscuring facts and downright lying especially when it comes to financial issues.

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I would describe this as common knowledge, particularly amongst investors. I know very very few people who are just rip-roaring ready to go when it comes to investing in Russia. I'm sure, e.g., this is why Gazprom trades at some multiple that would be judged to be preposterously low...IF people weren't very aware of how untrustworthy the numbers are (not to mention the state's power in simply stealing value if they wanted to.)

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The analysts who cover Russia are probably just like you, thinking "knowing something about Russia is irrelevant" when it comes to understanding their financial risks.

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Stop intentionally misconstruing what I have said. My comment was in regards to YOUR STATED PREDICTION VERSUS CDS PRICES IN THE OPEN MARKET. I stand by the reasonable and true assertion that my specific knowledge of Russia is ENTIRELY IRRRELEVANT to questioning why the two would be so far apart. (Again, we aren't talking 5X earnings versus 7X earnings. We are talking about off by 20-30X.)

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For example, do you know that in Russia a company's or bank's balance sheet doesn't have to balance?

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I'm quite positive that a great many analysts - both big names on Wall Street as well as more obscure ones inside private firms - are very well aware of such things. It beggars belief to assume that you would be the ONE person in possession of this information. Now, are there ignorant young analysts around the street who don't know their arse from a hole in the ground? Yes, sure.

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I've worked in almost three dozen countries setting up financial reporting systems and Russia is the only country I've worked in that has a system in place for the balance sheet not to balance. And that is not an accident on their part. They don't want the balance sheet to balance because that would make it more difficult for them to hide their true financial condition. You would know that if you didn't think it was irrelevant to know anything about Russia.

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You seem to think I have some positive opinion about the Russian financial system. I do not. I think it's horribly flawed and deeply criminal. I'm simply asking you to explain why one can still make impossibly cheap bets on a default via liquid,observable markets if the probability of default is close to 100%.

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F*ck off....

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Please provide one...JUST ONE...credible citation of Gross "nearly bankrupting" PIMCO.

YOU CAN'T YOU frickING LIAR. Because not one single person thinks that even came close to happening.

You're talking out of your arse again.

You:

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He damn near bankrupted PIMCO when rates fell even more and have stayed lower than they were when he announced his position.

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Your claim is that this happened in the past and that it was due to rates. Yet you then provide a bunch of links to potential regulatory scrutiny in the future.

Still looking for just ONE DAMNED LINK EVEN SLIGHTLY SUPPORTING YOUR LIES.

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Apparently providing links to articles for you doesn't really accomplish anything since you obviously didn't even take the time to read the ones I posted. The PIMCO saga is not over yet. It might still happen. I provided you just the first five articles I found when I googled stating PIMCO's ongoing financial problems. There were dozens more. At least one of the articles I linked was published just last month. The SEC is now looking at whether PIMCO, under Gross, committed fraud. Since Gross resigned, the massive outflows of PIMCO's funds under management is apparently only a secret to you. It's obvious to me you've got some axe to grind with me and whatever it is, that's okay with me. Frankly you're not important enough to me for this discussion to continue with you.

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GTFO with this weak noise. You EXPLICILTY stated that Gross's positioning of the funds nearly "bankrupted" PIMCO. That is a demonstrably false statement as their AUM is still nearly $2 Trillion.

You have now tried to shift the argument into some forward investigation of PIMCO (presumably that would theoretically lead to a "bankrupting" of the firm's equity holders?).

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Since Gross resigned, the massive outflows of PIMCO's funds under management is apparently only a secret to you.

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In the 1st reported quarter after he left, they had dropped 5% - $100 Billion, still leaving behind the paltry sum of $1.876 TRILLION. Yes..."MASSIVE" outflows of 5%.

You are full of shite and it's time you were called on it. You are just making shite up now and it's ridiculous.

Analysts predict they could withstand the loss of another $300-500 Billion before they would eat into the bonus pool or have to reduce staff.

Bankruptcy is such an absurd thing to say that I don't even know where to begin.

LINK