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Started By
Message
re: Cassidy staying out of the debate tonight on the largest TV channel in the state
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:24 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:24 pm to LSURussian
Most telling in Russian's link and confirming the minority turnout
From the earlier article
Only 22% black in 2010.
quote:
More Democrats than Republicans and other party/no party — combined — have voted early, so far, for the Nov. 4 election, he said. Early voters followed the state’s racial makeup with about two-thirds of the early voters white and about 31 percent black. About 14,000 more women have voted early
From the earlier article
quote:
Four days into early voting and John Couvillon, the Baton Rouge pollster, tracks turnout as similar to 2008, with 127,737 voters casting early ballots between Tuesday and Friday. During the first four days of early voting in 2008, a presidential election in which U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu was last re-elected, 137,223 votes were cast, Couvillon said.
Interestingly, voters casting early ballots had the same racial patterns: 67 percent white, 30 percent black.
In 2010, when the Republican Party won control of the U.S. House, 66,503 had voted four days into early voting, of whom 78 percent were white, Couvillon said.
Early voting continues until Tuesday. The election is Nov. 4.
Only 22% black in 2010.
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 9:28 pm
1
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:40 pm to I B Freeman
Mary needs 28% of white vote to win if the black vote remains at 31%.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:26 pm to I B Freeman
I wouldn't bet the farm on Mary winning in the end, BUT, anyone who completely writes her off is being foolish. Early voting matters in this election. A lot. Things can change unexpectedly in a week. Never underestimate Landrieu. We'll see. I'm honestly not vested very much in this election.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:30 pm to I B Freeman
We already Robby is getting your vote I B free, you should go back and count how many times you have already told us 
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:35 pm to SuperSaint
Landrieu needs a hail mary in the primary vote.
Because she will lose to either candidate in the runoff.
Because she will lose to either candidate in the runoff.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:37 pm to USMCTiger03
quote:
Of course she is. She's a senior incumbent and about to have to get a non-public job for the first time in her life.
I'm pretty sure she'll instantly quadruple her salary (at least) and be making more money than any of us posting in this thread. Part of me wonders why she wouldn't just take the money and run? She could definitely afford housed in Washington DC and New Orleans once that lobbyist money starts rolling in.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:38 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Landrieu--Why didn't Bill Cassidy show up???
Because he's a coward and a moron.
Why else?
Sounds like a real leader!
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 11:38 pm
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:38 pm to VOR
I think running with Obama saved her in 2008. I simply don't see how she'll get the black turnout this time. Democrats get crushed in Red States in off-year elections.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:39 pm to ClubTiger
quote:
Obviously a calculated decision just wonder the strategity behind it.
Yes. The calculation is Mary would destroy him. So best to not even play.
Very calculating, that Cassidy!
Come on man!!!
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:40 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
HOWEVER, his job is to vote how his constituents want him to vote
I'm having trouble finding where in the Constitution it actually says that.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:41 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Mary just said she hopes Maness makes the run off so she will have someone to debate in the runoff. She is jabbing the absent Cassidy pretty hard.
Just imagine what she'd be doing to him if he had showed!
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:44 pm to VOR
quote:
anyone who completely writes her off is being foolish.
Landrieu has ALWAYS been in tight races - here's a history of her run-off victories:
1996 - 50.7%
2002 - 51.7%
2008 - 52.1%
Go ahead guys, write her off! No need to show up for the run-off, Cassidy is going to destroy her!
Posted on 10/28/14 at 7:26 am to USMCTiger03
quote:
She's a senior incumbent and about to have to get a non-public job for the first time in her life.
Well, quasi-nonpublic. She'll become a lobbyist and still live off the government teat. The question is what will her husband do now that Mary will no longer be in a position to do favors for his real estate "clientele".
Posted on 10/28/14 at 9:38 am to SirWinston
quote:
I think running with Obama saved her in 2008. I simply don't see how she'll get the black turnout this time. Democrats get crushed in Red States in off-year elections.
This is the assumption all the establishment republicans have been making and early voting is proving them wrong.
31% black turnout is not good for any republican in this state.
BTW USA Today is now calling the race a toss up. LINK
Posted on 10/28/14 at 9:40 am to I B Freeman
quote:
31% black turnout
For a jungle primary.
This will get her in a runoff.
Do you honestly think you will see this same turnout in a general?
Posted on 10/28/14 at 9:47 am to udtiger
quote:
Do you honestly think you will see this same turnout in a general?
The only reason the black turnout is so high is because of her race. They aren't turning out to vote on the amendments.
Republicans should be very worried. If she gets a high turnout now just think what she will do in the runoff with tens of millions of dollars pouring in.
Republican voters are not excited about Cassidy and Maness supporters are passionate and do not like how Villere and the big Pacs have treated them. They may stay home.
It was incredibly stupid to run a candidate so bad on the stump you are better off leaving him at home during debates. It was incredibly stupid to run a campaign void of any promotion of the candidate. The strategy of vote Cassidy because Landrieu likes Obama will only get you so far. Some where along the lines it would seem there should be a message of "vote Cassidy because he believes in x, y, z and x,y,z is good for the people of Louisiana"
Cassidy may still win but the idea he is going to cake walk in with this anti Obama strategy is just wrong.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:01 am to LSURussian
quote:
And you think if Cassidy was in tonight's debate he would change the minds of all those "minority" early voters?
Of course not but if he can change the turnout of white voters he could stomp her. Change the mix 1 or 2% and the race is over.
The idea that he is taking or should be taking the victory knee is just stupid.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:07 am to I B Freeman
quote:
It was incredibly stupid to run a candidate so bad on the stump you are better off leaving him at home during debates. It was incredibly stupid to run a campaign void of any promotion of the candidate. The strategy of vote Cassidy because Landrieu likes Obama will only get you so far.
Your subjective perception of the situation does not make it reality. There has been much focus on the candidate (along with the focus on the Landriei/Obama marriage) since the beginning. But the leftist push has been to mischaracterize Cassidy's campaign this way. Of course, the majority of emphasis has been Laundrieu/Obama because it's a clear and easy message, but his record and positions have also been promoted as well. I guess you haven't been listening but that's no surprise.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:10 am to udtiger
quote:
WWL
New Orleans station.
Landrieu voters.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:19 am to USMCTiger03
quote:
Your subjective perception of the situation does not make it reality.
Why is that my perception? Of course the numbers on early voting are not subjective and you are a complete blind idiot if you are not concerned that Landrieu has managed to get the black vote out very close to the same turnout as in 2008 with Obama on the ballot. Subjective my arse.
quote:
There has been much focus on the candidate
You might point to the media buy that defines "much focus".
quote:
I guess you haven't been listening but that's no surprise.
I have not made any special effort to search and search for every Cassidy statement. Do you know many voters that have???
I am sure that if Landrieu manages a win you will simply claim the voters are stupid or Landrieu cheated. No way will you remove your blinders and say the campaign of Cassidy sucked.
This post was edited on 10/28/14 at 10:22 am
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