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re: Oil Wars: Why OPEC Will Win
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:50 pm to GREENHEAD22
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:50 pm to GREENHEAD22
A year or so is all I have ever said.
I think in two years it will be $75-$80 on the high end maybe.
I think in two years it will be $75-$80 on the high end maybe.
1
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:53 pm to JayDeerTay84
You have never said that anywhere in this thread, all you've done is said and we can hold our own with SA and that we can outlast them and thrown out of a s*** ton of wrong information. Don't try to backpedal now.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:54 pm to GREENHEAD22
Uh. Yes I have. Go read.
If not, when I'm done working out I will prove it to you.
If not, when I'm done working out I will prove it to you.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:59 pm to JayDeerTay84
You may have, to be honest I don't have time to go back and read through all your BS. You have been so wrong on all your points and so dead set on arguing them and I really don't care. Been nice chatting with you though.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:00 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
It's not like prices will go to $30.
At current price over 80% of production can still run and gun.
So this isn't all scary.
The big boys in the US will be just fine and so will the work force.
Do you even work in the industry? Who are the "big boys" in your view? Do you have any idea the breadth of the industry and the other sectors affected?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:09 pm to cwill
Yes I do actually. And there a lot of of big boys not named Chevron etc.
I never said things wouldn't be affected and yes, certain plays will not even be worth it until drill costs continue to shrink, but it opens the doors for buyouts and allows for cost saving maneuvers not yet currently employed.
We got caught with our pants down in the 80s.
Obviously If it was just Saudi and the US, Saudi has more money to play for longer, but they won't and can't because of other factors. There is no reason this would not stabilize after a year or so unless something crazy happens.
The US government also has cards to play along with the international community.
But if you look at where the GDP comes from in the US and how oil prices affect our economy; as a country can play the game.
EDIT: I will also add, why does matter how much cash Saudi has anyway? Its not like it will even come to that.
I never said things wouldn't be affected and yes, certain plays will not even be worth it until drill costs continue to shrink, but it opens the doors for buyouts and allows for cost saving maneuvers not yet currently employed.
We got caught with our pants down in the 80s.
Obviously If it was just Saudi and the US, Saudi has more money to play for longer, but they won't and can't because of other factors. There is no reason this would not stabilize after a year or so unless something crazy happens.
The US government also has cards to play along with the international community.
But if you look at where the GDP comes from in the US and how oil prices affect our economy; as a country can play the game.
EDIT: I will also add, why does matter how much cash Saudi has anyway? Its not like it will even come to that.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:16 pm to JayDeerTay84
So yea, ya'll keep saying im wrong and the US cant play, but no one really backs it up.
The US is SO diversified it CAN play the game.
The US is SO diversified it CAN play the game.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:19 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
The US doesn't depend on oil as much as Saudi. Saudi is 100% oil dependent.
SA's entire petro industry is completely coordinated. They have obscene cash reserves and a significantly lower cost to extract. They have decided they will not cede market share via production cuts anymore and there is not much we can do about it. We cannot make them cut production.
We also cannot continue to grow our production at the current rate in a depressed price environment without a significant increase in efficiency. Even if we could, it would just serve to further erode prices.
quote:
At current price over 80% of production can still run and gun.
Not so much for exploration. Lots of companies are already feeling the hurt.
If SA's refusal to cut production is a sign that the era of inflated oil prices is over and a new normal of $50-75/bbl is established, the US energy industry is going to contract. Majors will weather the storm, but you are in denial if you think everything is going to be hunky dory with the work force.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:19 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
You may have, to be honest I don't have time to go back and read through all your BS. You have been so wrong on all your points and so dead set on arguing them and I really don't care. Been nice chatting with you though.
Well, then prove I am wrong.
What % of the GDP is shale responsible for??? DO you even know???
You tell me how Saudi will beat the US?
The US economy is a machine for a fricking reason. Its not a 1 commodity pony.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:21 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Majors will weather the storm, but you are in denial if you think everything is going to be hunky dory with the work force.
What % of the work force works shale production????
and $50-$75 futures? Broad don't ya think?????
I dont care what any of you say, $50 will not be a price it stabilizes at. Not even close.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 5:58 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Yes I do actually. And there a lot of of big boys not named Chevron etc.
So you don't think there will be job losses because the "big boys" (undefined) are "OK". Does OK involve layoffs at BP? Does OK involve serious reductions in capital budgets at CVX? Considering that the Majors are cutting capital, won't be drilling as much are doing as many projects, do you think that will ripple out into the service sector? How do you think the rig contractors are doing right now, just to mention one small sector?
And the US government isn't going to do anything. They're not going to "play cards" for the O&G industry. It benefits more of the country's economy to have lower prices. There is no threat to our national security or our greater economy from lower oil prices.
Your point that the US relies less on oil as part of its GDP further reinforces that no one in this country cares about low prices affecting the O&G industry except O&G people.
And whole hosts of companies were caught with their pants down again (like the 80s) - overextended and banking on $80+ in to the future. No one saw it coming, no one predicted it.
The majors will survive, they always do, but if this thing is extended a bunch of companies that collectively provide jobs to thousands of people will feel the crunch. If the majors start picking off some of these companies - like Apache for example, what do you think happens to all those Apache employees? To that office building?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:00 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
I dont care what any of you say,
Clearly.
quote:
$50 will not be a price it stabilizes at. Not even close.
Of course not, but anything in the sub $70 zone for a year is going to cause some serious bleeding.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:05 pm to cwill
quote:
There is no threat to our national security or our greater economy from lower oil prices.
Exactly why the US would win. We could survive it easily.
Yea, some layoffs would happen, but they happen in other industries ALL THE TIME.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:09 pm to cwill
quote:
Of course not, but anything in the sub $70 zone for a year is going to cause some serious bleeding.
For 1 industry.
Consumer spending is what is most important in the US and data shows it would go up at the current projected prices.
For the record. I think there is some confusion among my 18 conversations it seems like.
The US has more than enough GDP to crush Saudi. Its not even close.
HOWEVER, I get the feeling that some of you just have a singular argument like US Shale companies vs a country (Saudi) for example; in which case YEA, US companies cant do anything. But that is stupid and not even close to how it would play out because it is the US economy vs the Saudi economy (which happens to basically be 100% oil based).
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:13 pm to cwill
quote:
like Apache for example, what do you think happens to all those Apache employees? To that office building?
Well they certainly ardent all going to die and fall of the planet.
It would take millions of job losses to put a hurt on the US. Even then, the GDP is so strong the US is just fine.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:14 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
For the record. I think there is some confusion among my 18 conversations it seems like.
The US has more than enough GDP to crush Saudi. Its not even close.
You're the only one that has said anything about US v SA.
quote:
HOWEVER, I get the feeling that some of you just have a singular argument like US Shale companies vs a country (Saudi) for example; in which case YEA, US companies cant do anything. But that is stupid and not even close to how it would play out because it is the US economy vs the Saudi economy (which happens to basically be 100% oil based).
Maybe this made sense in your head. I'm convinced you don't know wtf you're talking about and ultimately you've confused even yourself. Congrats.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:15 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Well they certainly ardent all going to die and fall of the planet.
It would take millions of job losses to put a hurt on the US. Even then, the GDP is so strong the US is just fine.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:18 pm to cwill
quote:
You're the only one that has said anything about US v SA.
Its in the title!
Oil Wars: Why OPEC Will Win
quote:
Maybe this made sense in your head. I'm convinced you don't know wtf you're talking about and ultimately you've confused even yourself. Congrats.
Well, I am trying to understand why you people think that a country that basically sells 1 product would win much of anything.
This thing turned into myself saying Saudi didn't have enough resources to win a war. War vs who?
frick it I know at this point. I've got like 10 people talking to me.
If its Iran/Russia, yea. If its the US. Hell no.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:34 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
frick it I know at this point. I've got like 10 people talking to me.
I think we are all confused as hell and trying to figure out what's your fcking point?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 6:39 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I think we are all confused as hell and trying to figure out what's your fcking point?
OK, so basically, someone said Saudi would win a price war. I assumed it was about a price war vs the the US being as that was what this thread was started about.
Given that, I said no and everyone yelled at me.
My point is that the GDP is so big in the US and the Shale production is so a lower % of that, Saudi would NOT win a price war if it was in fact directed at the US.
The US could play all day.
Edit: but no one had even defined what winning means in all of this.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 6:41 pm
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