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Message
re: Oil Wars: Why OPEC Will Win
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:36 am to cwill
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:36 am to cwill
quote:
I think you're subject to the same question regarding your thoughts on Syira, Iran
Those are my thoughts/opinions which I have based upon the last decade of working with Middle Easterners in the oil & gas industry. I have derived these thoughts/opinions based off of countless conversations with my day to day dealings with customers/colleagues along with dozens of trips to Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Turkey.
quote:
how much money SA has in its war chest to survive a $60 price environment.
Like said before, it is math. But I want to see the other math to see how mine is incorrect.
1
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:39 am to htownjeep
quote:
Those are my thoughts/opinions which I have based upon the last decade of working with Middle Easterners in the oil & gas industry. I have derived these thoughts/opinions based off of countless conversations with my day to day dealings with customers/colleagues along with dozens of trips to Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Turkey.
Fair enough, but I disagree that those are drivers since the price collapse wasn't manufactured and the protection of market share would appear to be the clear overriding factor.
quote:
Like said before, it is math. But I want to see the other math to see how mine is incorrect.
I'd be curious to see anyone's math on this board regarding SA reserve cash since the Kingdom's production and finances are far the most part completely opaque. I've gotten the 1 year from articles I've read.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 11:40 am
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:45 am to cwill
quote:
Fair enough, but I disagree that those are drivers since the price collapse wasn't manufactured and the protection of market share would appear to be the clear overriding factor.
Like I said, it's just my opinions but I am not alone in those opinions. The things I've cited about the Asaad regime and their growing concerns over Iran are not exactly big secrets. But, I think they are things that the normal US citizen does not pay attention to. Why would they?
quote:
I'd be curious to see anyone's math on this board regarding SA reserve cash since the Kingdom's production and finances are far the most part completely opaque. I've gotten the 1 year from articles I've read.
I am not in possession of any top secret documents, but there are documented numbers available. Whether you believe those numbers or not is up to you. I am curious to see the math that refutes my math though.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:50 am to cwill
Last piece read said they have close to a trillion in foreign banks alone. There main reason is to gain market share plain and simple, everything else is lagniappe.
And for ole boy who still persist that the shale break even points are better than SA.
I know for a fact that H&P alone are stacking 19 rigs in just STX on the 1st.
And for ole boy who still persist that the shale break even points are better than SA.
I know for a fact that H&P alone are stacking 19 rigs in just STX on the 1st.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 12:30 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Last piece read said they have close to a trillion in foreign banks alone. There main reason is to gain market share plain and simple, everything else is lagniappe.
Ding ding ding winner
The Saudi's did not create the supply gut and anyone who thinks they will or should cut production to end it lacks a understanding of basic market principles. The players who created the supply imbalance are about to get bled, plain and simple. We are going to find out exactly how far extended banks are into the energy market as well.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 12:53 pm to cave canem
quote:
The Saudi's did not create the supply gut and anyone who thinks they will or should cut production to end it lacks a understanding of basic market principles. The players who created the supply imbalance are about to get bled, plain and simple. We are going to find out exactly how far extended banks are into the energy market as well.
It really is as simple as they are trying to cut the world supply - not any of this other imaginary plotting.
Think about the movement over the last 7+ years for every public company and now even the PE backed to become pure play companies...just Bakken, EF or Permian (think of all the start-ups in the Perm). They have no diversity of assets and they've been borrowing like crazy and issuing junk bonds out the wazoo on I would guess $80+ price decks...it's going to get bad over the next year.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:14 pm to htownjeep
quote:
Mind sharing your "math" with the class?
Saudi is only 1/3 of OPEC. Even if Saudi could survive for "several" years of a price war, the rest of OPEC sure as hell can't.
Anyway, there is no long term benefit for ANYONE for prices to be this low.
If you know any, share.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:15 pm to cwill
quote:
They have no diversity of assets and they've been borrowing like crazy and issuing junk bonds out the wazoo on I would guess $80+ price decks...it's going to get bad over the next year.
The big boys can handle it better than most. It is going to be the comunity banks that loaned Joe Wildcatter money to work over his new field based on income from his other field that are about to get hammered.
The bank of ________ insert Parish/County/City is either going to get bought out cheaply or have to close up shop.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:25 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Saudi is only 1/3 of OPEC. Even if Saudi could survive for "several" years of a price war, the rest of OPEC sure as hell can't.
Moving the goal posts again Jay.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:29 pm to cwill
quote:
Moving the goal posts again Jay.
I'm not the one who claimed Saudi could survive "SEVERAL" years of a price war.
The burden of proof does not rest on my shoulders.
Try to keep up.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:36 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
I'm not the one who claimed Saudi could survive "SEVERAL" years of a price war.
They can.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:40 pm to cave canem
quote:
They can.
If by survive you mean still be a country then yes. In no other way would they come out ahead.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:42 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Even if Saudi could survive for "several" years of a price war
Again, they can.
quote:
the rest of OPEC sure as hell can't.
They don't give a shite about the rest of OPEC. They've tried to help out before and it didn't do them any good.
quote:
Anyway, there is no long term benefit for ANYONE for prices to be this low.
Debatable
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:44 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
If by survive you mean still be a country then yes. In no other way would they come out ahead.
If this price correction last years they will emerge with at least double their market share and a stranglehold on prices. That is my definition of ahead. Think chess not checkers.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:47 pm to htownjeep
quote:
Debatable
Then debate it.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:48 pm to cave canem
quote:
If this price correction last years they will emerge with at least double their market share and a stranglehold on prices. That is my definition of ahead. Think chess not checkers.
Heard that one before.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:56 pm to JayDeerTay84
The lack of basic understanding of economic and market principles of some people never cease to amaze me. Then again this country did elect a complete pathological lying idiot.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 2:00 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Debatable
Then debate it.
Ok, let's pretend I'm Saudi Arabia.
If, in one action, I could defund the Asaad regime and cripple Iran's economy, I would call that a great long term benefit.
Oh, and as a perk I gain a lot more market share after it's all over because a lot of people couldn't afford to weather the storm? More market share than I had when it all started? Yes, thank you, I'll take that long term benefit as well.
Oh, and I have close to a Trillion USD socked away for a rainy day and my annual budget is less than $250 Billion. So I can weather this storm longer than just about anybody else and my citizens will never see one bit of economic or social impact and I won't have to cut one program at all.
Tell me why I should even bother listening to the other members of OPEC?
Posted on 12/15/14 at 2:01 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
The lack of basic understanding of economic and market principles of some people never cease to amaze me. Then again this country did elect a complete pathological lying idiot.
Educate us.
Posted on 12/15/14 at 2:02 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Educate us.
There is no "us" here honcho... You're the only one not getting it.
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