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re: Oil Wars: Why OPEC Will Win

Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:10 pm to
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:10 pm to
Sounds good on paper however you guys think Saudi will just do whatever they want while the world watches. Idly.

Quite funny.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19586 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:21 pm to
what are you implying? What course of action does the world have? The free trade market you idiot, they swing the big stick in OPEC everyone else follows there lead and has no choice for the most part. What, you think baracks going to go and threaten them, I'm confused on what you thinks going to happen here.
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9933 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

Sounds good on paper however you guys think Saudi will just do whatever they want while the world watches. Idly.


The Saudis have been doing pretty much whatever the hell they want since WWII.


ETA - Do you really think Russia will attack SA and start WWIII? Or Iran attack and give us justification to take them out? What do you think is going to happen to SA?
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 4:25 pm
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

Sounds good on paper however you guys think Saudi will just do whatever they want while the world watches. Idly.


Unless you are sitting on the idea that will decrease the drilling/operating cost of shale oil/gas, then there is not much the US can do. What do you propose? Interested in your grand ideas to help the US "win" the "oil wars"?
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:26 pm to
Well I don't know why you mentioned Obama. This isn't the 80s.

The US can play this game this time. It's the desperate country's I'm talking about.

I don't think Saudi would play it long. Some one like Russia would and could take action.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:28 pm to
Do you really think these country's will let Saudi bankrupt them?

No. Saudi won't play for long. The US has enough production to keep up b
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:29 pm to
I'm saying the US can play the game this time. Unlike the 80s.
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:32 pm to
quote:

I'm saying the US can play the game this time.


How? You have not one time mentioned how the US plans to compete when the majority of our oil/gas costs more to pull out of the ground than SA. Explain how when SA can produce the same product at a cheaper cost, the US can "play the game" for an extened amount of time. The US producers will struggle and layoffs nation-wide in the field have already begun.

This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 4:33 pm
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:36 pm to
The US doesn't depend on oil as much as Saudi. Saudi is 100% oil dependent.

It's not like prices will go to $30.

At current price over 80% of production can still run and gun.

So this isn't all scary.

The big boys in the US will be just fine and so will the work force.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:37 pm to
I should add, if Saudi plays it long, the US can lift the export ban.
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9933 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

Do you really think these country's will let Saudi bankrupt them?


I think at worst Russia/Iran may attempt to inflate prices by funding unrest elswhere in the middle east or perhaps even Venezuela. No one is attacking SA and you are naive if you think otherwise.

Saudi Arabia is not doing anything other than refusing to cede market share. It is not like they are exporting oil at a loss right now. They are just not going to cut production to make others happy. To an extent they will let the market work itself out.

Non-OPEC production growth rates will slow as shale production will be forced to get more efficient, credit will tighten, and operators will be less willing to take big risks.
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

The US doesn't depend on oil as much as Saudi. Saudi is 100% oil dependent.


Well no shite. It has been posted already. They have $1T in reserves while the US is $17T in the hole. Of course this won't bancrupt Exxon, Chevron, or any of the other huge well diversified companies but to pretend that they US oil/gas companies will be just fine at $50 oil is a joke.

quote:

At current price over 80% of production can still run and gun.


How in the hell can you know that? In the previously posted graph, at $80 most of our fields become less or not profitable to produce. We are below $60 now and still dropping if you haven't kept up.

This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 4:43 pm
Posted by htownjeep
Republic of Texas
Member since Jun 2005
7612 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

I'm saying the US can play the game this time. Unlike the 80s.

I must say, you have been entertaining today. Your lack of experience or knowledge in everything you have talked about has been astounding. It amazes me how you ask for opinions or information and then will argue with it.

I'll be away from a computer for a while here in a few minutes, but I certainly hope you keep the night crew busy and I have some good things to read in the morning with my coffee.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:42 pm to
Lol ok how long will it be at $50 if it even gets there?
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

Lol ok how long will it be at $50 if it even gets there?


Who knows. It depends on how long SA wants to sell cheap oil.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:45 pm to
Ok. We'll make sure you repeat Saudi's bank roll over and over when you get back.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:46 pm to
Then how do you know the US can't play?

The US is the future. It's only a matter of time.
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 4:46 pm
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

The US is the future


That is probably the only smart thing you have said. When we can produce/operate shale gas and oil more cost efficient than we do now, we will run the show. We are not anywhere near that.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:48 pm to
2035-2040

Not that far!
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19586 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 4:49 pm to
a year at least not more than two tho, the market will balance itself out. this is assuming that the status quo will remain, which means to the layman no terrorist attacks, Middle East uprisings, etc. however it still won't get back up to 100 in couple of years though, at least I don't think in my opinion.
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