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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 3/10/14 at 6:49 pm to
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 3/10/14 at 6:49 pm to
I picked up DGAZ last week. I think Nat Gas has topped out so the swing should happen soon. Then again maybe I am missing something also.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/12/14 at 7:12 pm to
May futures trending down. I'm not sure it started for real yet, but it sure does seem headed down fairly soon.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 9:39 am to
My July 23 UNG Puts are almost worth what I paid for them averaged down cost.

If NG goes as I anticipate, this is going to be a huge winner for me.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22752 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 10:21 am to
I have 2000 shares of Kold at 36.50 feeling is mutual.....
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 10:26 am to
Picked up July 22 contracts this morning. Hoping for a nice downturn in the upcoming months.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 10:28 am to
quote:

Picked up July 22 contracts this morning. Hoping for a nice downturn in the upcoming months.


Can you clarify for me? You sold July futures? You bought July puts? If you bought puts, what did you buy them on, futures contracts, or tracking fund. I'm assuming UNG? Curious here.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 10:45 am to
Bought July 22 puts for UNG.

Also, have stock in DGAZ right now. The downturn in Nat Gas is coming.
This post was edited on 3/13/14 at 10:49 am
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:29 am to
quote:

Bought July 22 puts for UNG.


That's my play also. I considered selling futures contracts, but I think there will be volatility, so I didn't go that route.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:40 am to
Kicking myself for not getting my 23's averaged down more, but this is the only trade in my portfolio right now... was beginning to doubt myself.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:43 am to
I'm in 24 at under a buck, and in 20 at under .50.

I haven't done a technical analysis on the chart, but I think 18 is very possible this summer.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 12:36 pm to
DGAZ looking solid today... +8%
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 1:16 pm to
Those July 22 Puts on UNG still seem incredibly cheap to me.
Posted by 5 Deep
Crawford Boxes
Member since Jul 2010
21493 posts
Posted on 3/17/14 at 9:38 am to
Let me preface this by saying that I am extremely ignorant on this subject and I'm looking for someone to point me in the right direction:

Whith all this Russia, Crimea, Ukraine, sanctions, etc what do y'all think is going to happen to NG? Doesn't Europe depend on Russian NG? Will we see any repercussions here in the US?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/17/14 at 9:41 am to
Generally these volatility spikes are violent, but short lived. Fundamentals eventually return to the market. Eventually.
Posted by TigerBite
Dallas
Member since Feb 2004
2535 posts
Posted on 3/17/14 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

Whith all this Russia, Crimea, Ukraine, sanctions, etc what do y'all think is going to happen to NG?


Russia needs to sell their gas, so it's twofold.

Domestically, nothing in the short-term. I guess you could see a very slight shift out in the curve due to LNG exports, but there's plenty of time to fix issues. Storage, early summer forecasts, and drilling response will have a far greater impact on domestic NG....IMO
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/20/14 at 12:27 pm to
Proceeding as expected. Even when natty gas recovers, the pricing on my puts firms up and doesn't come down as much. I am almost break even on July 23 puts today.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16168 posts
Posted on 3/21/14 at 10:21 am to
I'm liking what I'm seeing the past few days. These next couple weeks could have some big moves.
Posted by TigeRoots
Member since Oct 2008
8505 posts
Posted on 3/21/14 at 1:38 pm to
DGAZ and KOLD performing well this week. Hopefully Spring is truly here.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/21/14 at 1:43 pm to
July 20 UNG Puts for .27. Something tells me the longs on this are pigs, and the pigs are gonna get slaughtered.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16168 posts
Posted on 3/25/14 at 8:40 am to
U.S. lawmakers to weigh speeding up LNG exports to help Europe, Ukraine

So what do all the NG shorters think of this? NG just saw a small spike this morning.
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