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Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 11/20/14 at 2:57 pm to sneakytiger
Posted on 11/20/14 at 2:57 pm to sneakytiger
What I understand from my reading is whether up or down leveraged etf, they all decline in value due to the monthly roll decay factor over the long term. I'm not talking about buying DGAZ, I'm talking holding a short position in both UGAZ and DGAZ over the long term.
2
Posted on 11/20/14 at 3:04 pm to Ole War Skule
So anyone want to explain the seeming disconnect in UGAZ and DGAZ. They've been tracking eachother pretty close to oopposite. (One gains 12%, the other loses 12%), but today UGAZ is up 4 and DGAZ is down 14. What's up with this?
This post was edited on 11/20/14 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 11/20/14 at 3:08 pm to Ole War Skule
I get what you're saying, but neither roll nor decay guarantee downward price movement, they are unpredictable
Posted on 11/20/14 at 3:14 pm to southernelite
quote:
UGAZ
U = UP
quote:
DGAZ
D = Down
duhhhhhhh
Posted on 11/20/14 at 3:15 pm to southernelite
from what I've read..
* opposite leveraged ETFs NEVER mirror each other, or accurately follow their base commodity or index
* I haven't seen a clear and concise explanation of what one can expect them to do in the future relative to base commodity or index changes
* factors like futures contango and backdwardation, compounding effects of price changes, and rollovers each month all mean the price of 3x etfs will never be 3x.
note: I am not experienced at all in this and trying to figure it out myself...best of luck if you're trying to
* opposite leveraged ETFs NEVER mirror each other, or accurately follow their base commodity or index
* I haven't seen a clear and concise explanation of what one can expect them to do in the future relative to base commodity or index changes
* factors like futures contango and backdwardation, compounding effects of price changes, and rollovers each month all mean the price of 3x etfs will never be 3x.
note: I am not experienced at all in this and trying to figure it out myself...best of luck if you're trying to
Posted on 11/20/14 at 3:20 pm to RebelOP
I actually missed that. Am an idiot.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:13 pm to southernelite
I think the bull runs with some minor interruptions for a while. Could be early as next week as we are trading at a .73 premium over last year and have Dec expiry. Craziness almost exclusively based on weather I think.
There is also weather and usage modeling coming out every day, inclusive of Europe. The Euro ensemble.
There are a lot of call sellers out there right now in the future's market. Call sellers in to expiry. Now why would they be selling in the money calls in to the teeth of the 25th? Makes one wonder if next week we close the gap on spreads. And the swap activity has been unusual as well. That's likely banks and hedgers.
Anyway, one of the quoted articles above talked about savvy traders (futures and future's options traders) trading in front of the etf's rolls. Worse price for the paper etp's, and potential smallish (%) profits for the commodities guys. A trade much like when Friedman complained that gold didn't pay any interest, and magically the gold leasing started. Between the yen carry and to a smaller degree gold leasing banks and governments help finance themselves. The bankers on here will probably disagree and they are some pretty smart guys, but I doubt much they've ever been invited to participate in the private pre-earnings calls either.
Trust me, institutional commodity trader are dirty, dirty players. The entire future's market is still the wild west of investing, and natural gas is impacted. Not as much as gold and silver, but still impacted. Just look at the COT and drill down in to it. shite, they talk about it openly on their calls. The CFTC looked in to it, JP Morgan specifically, and surprise, surprise, couldn't find anything.
So what the hell to do? Well, I'm not that smart at all, so I just try to copy them. And copy guys smarter than me, including a couple on this board.
As much as I hate it, I think on the securities side I'm going to need to buy DGAZ. I can't find the right options expiration on the others. Different months are released at different times, and I want a decent short entry point for this summer, and I'd like to start trading towards this point fairly soon. Before the options are released.
A lot of talk above about the etp's. I don't ever (except DGAZ I guess) own any of this stuff. I trade options on it. The derivative of the paper. Or the paper of the paper I guess.
Guys that but SLV and GLD are really delusional in my opinion. The custodian has no obligation to the shareholders, only to the trust itself. Says it right in the prospectus. You essentially own nothing. If I'm going to own nothing, I'm going to trade the paper on the paper to ensure my losses are stopped at reasonable levels. I'll own the right to either buy or sell nothing, or I'll sell the right to either buy or sell nothing. The right is something. The paper is mostly nothing. They'll argue you can do that with the etp's as well, and I guess you can. Kind of. Another topic for another day I guess.
There is also weather and usage modeling coming out every day, inclusive of Europe. The Euro ensemble.
There are a lot of call sellers out there right now in the future's market. Call sellers in to expiry. Now why would they be selling in the money calls in to the teeth of the 25th? Makes one wonder if next week we close the gap on spreads. And the swap activity has been unusual as well. That's likely banks and hedgers.
Anyway, one of the quoted articles above talked about savvy traders (futures and future's options traders) trading in front of the etf's rolls. Worse price for the paper etp's, and potential smallish (%) profits for the commodities guys. A trade much like when Friedman complained that gold didn't pay any interest, and magically the gold leasing started. Between the yen carry and to a smaller degree gold leasing banks and governments help finance themselves. The bankers on here will probably disagree and they are some pretty smart guys, but I doubt much they've ever been invited to participate in the private pre-earnings calls either.
Trust me, institutional commodity trader are dirty, dirty players. The entire future's market is still the wild west of investing, and natural gas is impacted. Not as much as gold and silver, but still impacted. Just look at the COT and drill down in to it. shite, they talk about it openly on their calls. The CFTC looked in to it, JP Morgan specifically, and surprise, surprise, couldn't find anything.
So what the hell to do? Well, I'm not that smart at all, so I just try to copy them. And copy guys smarter than me, including a couple on this board.
As much as I hate it, I think on the securities side I'm going to need to buy DGAZ. I can't find the right options expiration on the others. Different months are released at different times, and I want a decent short entry point for this summer, and I'd like to start trading towards this point fairly soon. Before the options are released.
A lot of talk above about the etp's. I don't ever (except DGAZ I guess) own any of this stuff. I trade options on it. The derivative of the paper. Or the paper of the paper I guess.
Guys that but SLV and GLD are really delusional in my opinion. The custodian has no obligation to the shareholders, only to the trust itself. Says it right in the prospectus. You essentially own nothing. If I'm going to own nothing, I'm going to trade the paper on the paper to ensure my losses are stopped at reasonable levels. I'll own the right to either buy or sell nothing, or I'll sell the right to either buy or sell nothing. The right is something. The paper is mostly nothing. They'll argue you can do that with the etp's as well, and I guess you can. Kind of. Another topic for another day I guess.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:25 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I think the bull runs with some minor interruptions for a while. Could be early as next week as we are trading at a .73 premium over last year and have Dec expiry. Craziness almost exclusively based on weather I think.
There is also weather and usage modeling coming out every day, inclusive of Europe. The Euro ensemble.
There are a lot of call sellers out there right now in the future's market. Call sellers in to expiry. Now why would they be selling in the money calls in to the teeth of the 25th? Makes one wonder if next week we close the gap on spreads. And the swap activity has been unusual as well. That's likely banks and hedgers.
Anyway, one of the quoted articles above talked about savvy traders (futures and future's options traders) trading in front of the etf's rolls. Worse price for the paper etp's, and potential smallish (%) profits for the commodities guys. A trade much like when Friedman complained that gold didn't pay any interest, and magically the gold leasing started. Between the yen carry and to a smaller degree gold leasing banks and governments help finance themselves. The bankers on here will probably disagree and they are some pretty smart guys, but I doubt much they've ever been invited to participate in the private pre-earnings calls either.
Trust me, institutional commodity trader are dirty, dirty players. The entire future's market is still the wild west of investing, and natural gas is impacted. Not as much as gold and silver, but still impacted. Just look at the COT and drill down in to it. shite, they talk about it openly on their calls. The CFTC looked in to it, JP Morgan specifically, and surprise, surprise, couldn't find anything.
So what the hell to do? Well, I'm not that smart at all, so I just try to copy them. And copy guys smarter than me, including a couple on this board.
As much as I hate it, I think on the securities side I'm going to need to buy DGAZ. I can't find the right options expiration on the others. Different months are released at different times, and I want a decent short entry point for this summer, and I'd like to start trading towards this point fairly soon. Before the options are released.
A lot of talk above about the etp's. I don't ever (except DGAZ I guess) own any of this stuff. I trade options on it. The derivative of the paper. Or the paper of the paper I guess.
Guys that but SLV and GLD are really delusional in my opinion. The custodian has no obligation to the shareholders, only to the trust itself. Says it right in the prospectus. You essentially own nothing. If I'm going to own nothing, I'm going to trade the paper on the paper to ensure my losses are stopped at reasonable levels. I'll own the right to either buy or sell nothing, or I'll sell the right to either buy or sell nothing. The right is something. The paper is mostly nothing. They'll argue you can do that with the etp's as well, and I guess you can. Kind of. Another topic for another day I guess.
What?
Posted on 11/20/14 at 8:30 pm to LSURussian
To answer your question above, Bret Bielema. He's an Iowa guy. I know he coached Wiscy, but he's an Iowa guy.
I think cash was trading at $4.49 at HH today, and might have even closed that high.
Curious if any of you guys has access to spot prices down there, and if so, where you get them from?
I think cash was trading at $4.49 at HH today, and might have even closed that high.
Curious if any of you guys has access to spot prices down there, and if so, where you get them from?
Posted on 11/20/14 at 10:55 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 11/21/14 at 6:09 am to b-rab2
Are you ready for the BOOM? Down we go. And next week maybe down more, but then up. And I think all violently.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 6:40 am to Iowa Golfer
I'm ready to make some cheese, then yes.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 7:00 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Are you ready for the BOOM? Down we go. And next week maybe down more, but then up. And I think all violently.
I bailed yesterday for no valid reasons. Just think UGAZ moved too fast too far and will fall off as it has every other time recently. I'll buy back in once it's dropped 8-10% or so. ETA: nevermind..already dropped 8% since I sold...will wait a while
I think what I want are real time screen access to what Golfer and Force are doing though.
I had a serious (sort of) thought though in that concept.
Fidelity (or any other broker) scans all of its accounts and pulls out the ones that consistently kick arse. Contact those traders and offer them a percentage of fees earned by allowing other customers to watch their trading realtime. There are some web sites that track investors portfolios in a similar way, but they're not 'real' portfolios, just what the trader reports. I'd pay for that access.
BTW, please keep this on the QT, I'm going to file a patent soon.
This post was edited on 11/21/14 at 7:03 am
Posted on 11/21/14 at 7:20 am to Ole War Skule
Premarket not looking good for the longs.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 7:32 am to Iowa Golfer
What price point do you think UGAZ/DGAZ is attractive again? Also would like thank give and golfer for their insight.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 7:37 am to Revan11
Posted on 11/21/14 at 7:40 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Wisconsin claims our stadium is louder than when they played LSU.
Ha, love the insight you bring in this thread but I would hope your stadium is louder than a 70K seat neutral field. I know the game was much closer to LSU but it isn't really comparable to playing as a visitor in Baton Rouge.
ETA: I'm excited to see Lambeau in 2 years but I am pissed we aren't playing at Camp Randall.
This post was edited on 11/21/14 at 7:44 am
Posted on 11/21/14 at 7:47 am to Waffle House
I've been to some SEC stadiums. I've mostly enjoyed them, except some Florida and Alabama fans. Our stands sit right on top of the visitors bench.
We recruited Melvin Gordon and had a verbal. He decided to stay in state. We collapsed in 2010 when we were supposed to be a NC contender again. BB pulled a fake punt deep inside his own territory and we seemed to have just collapsed since then. Suffering through 8 & 9 seasons at best. Hired Mack Brown former OC, and it is ugly.
Anyway, Gordon has made several comments about how he hates coming to IC. He said he can hear all the fan's comments. This year the students are supposed to start chanting, "Meeeelvin, come ouuut and play".
I do think some Southern teams should come north to play. It is an entirely different energy when it gets cold up here.
We recruited Melvin Gordon and had a verbal. He decided to stay in state. We collapsed in 2010 when we were supposed to be a NC contender again. BB pulled a fake punt deep inside his own territory and we seemed to have just collapsed since then. Suffering through 8 & 9 seasons at best. Hired Mack Brown former OC, and it is ugly.
Anyway, Gordon has made several comments about how he hates coming to IC. He said he can hear all the fan's comments. This year the students are supposed to start chanting, "Meeeelvin, come ouuut and play".
I do think some Southern teams should come north to play. It is an entirely different energy when it gets cold up here.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 8:10 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:Please keep those recommendations coming. I'm making good coin on them.
Now forget DGAZ, even if it continues to get crushed. And it will.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 8:27 am to LSURussian
One day Brother Russian. I'm a long term trader, at least a week. LULZ. My predication about DGAZ will be fact. And fairly soon. If not, it will be fact in early spring. A modest return this year. Maybe only 70% or so.
Mighty Iowa Hawkeye Golfer Hawker Hacker 70% only.
The 2010 Iowa Wisconsin game produced 30 draft picks, 56 NFL players. Natural gas in this thread is a disappointment if you only make 15% in two weeks.
Mighty Iowa Hawkeye Golfer Hawker Hacker 70% only.
The 2010 Iowa Wisconsin game produced 30 draft picks, 56 NFL players. Natural gas in this thread is a disappointment if you only make 15% in two weeks.
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