re: BOIL has become predictable

I don't feel like doing the math right now, but I made a small sub 1% gain today

Dude's learning, cut him some slack. He gets on here and let's us know the good and bad of his trades. Better than a lot of the posters on here, who are all presumably zillionaires if we are to believe them. If.

I'm just messing with the guy. He's doing well.

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Dude's learning, cut him some slack. He gets on here and let's us know the good and bad of his trades. Better than a lot of the posters on here, who are all presumably zillionaires if we are to believe them. If.

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While I agree with you, it's a mistake to think you can learn to trade with real money by trading with play money or the equivalent. It could actually be worse as it can give the trainee a false sense of confidence.

It is fun to watch and see how the strategy works though. As bama said, If I could pick up 1% a day, I'd be one of those kazillionaires in no time!

ETA: the more I think about this, the more I"m convinced he's just playing all of us. When he says $10 trades, he really means 100k. He's just being modest

Back in. I shorted DGAZ. We'll see how long to cover. I'm going to keep it short even if it goes up a significant amount.

Yes, 1% per day, compounded over a year. That's a hefty return.

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jlu03

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So for the non-option traders, can you shed some light on that? In other words, you bought the right (via a number of $100 put contracts) to sell UNG at $13 on or before April 17?

So you're banking on UNG falling below $13.

I'm not necessarily planning on it going below $13 but I do believe the price of Nat Gas will be dropping very soon. If UNG nears $13 a few weeks ahead of the expiration date then I have the opportunity of making quite a bit of cash. Not sure how technical you want to get on this topic.

FYI... 1 contract equals 100 shares not $100.

Options are traded on several exchanges. They don't need to be exercised, you can buy or sell the contracts at a gain or loss.

I'[m on the opposite side of the trade. We'll see how it plays out. A lot of short interest, and I'm long because of it.

The fee is whatever commission your brokerage firm has for you. I'm at .05 per contract + $1.99. The price of the specific contract is whatever you can get it bought or sold for.

If you purchased a contract and it expired worthless (because you didn't sell if when it was marketable on the way down), you'd lose the contract cost which would include the price paid, commission and fees.

If you write a contract and it expires worthless, you keep the buyer's premium less your commissions and fees.

You don't need to let a purchased contract expire worthless, you can sell at any point so long as there is a buyer. A hidden stop loss would be one way.

If you write contracts you'd need to review contingent orders, and check your brokerage firms execution guaranty. For example if I sell calls, I set a buy to close contingent on the underlying securities price. If it blows through the price, it is automatically set to buy, preventing a disaster.