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Les Miles projections - wins, losses, final season
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:20 pm
We are at the mid-point of 2013. Assuming LSU has no problems with Furman, and takes 3/5 of the remaining conference games, that is a 9-3 regular season, and a likely mid-tier bowl. With Les' recent history, I can't assume the bowl win, but I spot him that.
So, it looks like a 10-win season, and he'll be 95-24 (just a sliver under 80%) at the conclusion of 2013. That will also leave him just 42 wins short of tying (43 short of surpassing) Charles McClendon's 137 wins.
At a modest rate of 9 wins per year, that puts Miles as the winningest LSU coach sometime in the middle of 2018 - and, he will have something like 40 to 42 losses to go with that, whereas Mac lost 59 (and tied 7).
He's already at 80%, far in excess of any long-tenured LSU coach. Assuming that holds, I actually see him retiring at the end of the 2018 season. He'll turn 65 and probably start to have a few grandchildren popping up.
Of course, that kind of money will be hard to walk away from, but I don't see him as the kind of guy who is driven by money. I also see him retiring in and around Baton Rouge, unless family issues drive a move.
Thoughts?
So, it looks like a 10-win season, and he'll be 95-24 (just a sliver under 80%) at the conclusion of 2013. That will also leave him just 42 wins short of tying (43 short of surpassing) Charles McClendon's 137 wins.
At a modest rate of 9 wins per year, that puts Miles as the winningest LSU coach sometime in the middle of 2018 - and, he will have something like 40 to 42 losses to go with that, whereas Mac lost 59 (and tied 7).
He's already at 80%, far in excess of any long-tenured LSU coach. Assuming that holds, I actually see him retiring at the end of the 2018 season. He'll turn 65 and probably start to have a few grandchildren popping up.
Of course, that kind of money will be hard to walk away from, but I don't see him as the kind of guy who is driven by money. I also see him retiring in and around Baton Rouge, unless family issues drive a move.
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 3:32 pm
8
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:26 pm to Ace Midnight
If les averages 9 wins over the next 5 years he won't be here in 5 years.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:28 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Assuming LSU has no problems with Furman, and takes 3/5 of the remaining conference games, that is a 10-3 regular season
That would make us 9-3
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:30 pm to lsu2006
quote:
That would make us 9-3
Yep.
That's right.
ETA: OP edited to correct. Math is hard.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:33 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
He'll turn 65 and probably start to have a few grandchildren popping up
Dude, none of his kids are even out of high school yet
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:35 pm to Walter White
quote:
Dude, none of his kids are even out of high school yet
This is Louisiana.
ETA: And Smacker is a freshman at Texas.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:37 pm to Coon
quote:
If les averages 9 wins over the next 5 years he won't be here in 5 years.
He has averaged that in the last 5 years and he's still here.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:39 pm to Coon
Unless he bolts for Texas at the end of the year
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:43 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Unless he bolts for Texas at the end of the year
I don't think he's on the short list.
It's Saban, Payton or bust, I think - 10 years, $100 million - the first guy to reach for it gets the job.
(ETA: Yes I know that Payton is probably going to Dallas, not Austin, but $100 million is $100 million.)
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:45 pm to Ace Midnight
40-42 losses? Negative senator.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:50 pm to Ace Midnight
Payton won't go to Dallas or Texas.
Full control and Drew Brees or romo and no control?
Nfl or college?
Full control and Drew Brees or romo and no control?
Nfl or college?
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:53 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Payton
Just because you have a keyboard, you shouldn't clickity-clack.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:54 pm to PeaRidgeWatash
quote:
40-42 losses? Negative senator.
I should have clarified - by the time he gets wins 137 and 138, if it takes him 4 years and change - that's about right.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:55 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
It's Saban, Payton
wat
quote:
Yes I know that Payton is probably going to Dallas, not Austin, but $100 million is $100 million
again wat
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:59 pm to The Eric
quote:
Full control and Drew Brees or romo and no control?
How many years does Brees have, brah?
He hasn't been the healthiest QB, anyway, and turns 35 in January. Payton's not yet 50.
Payton's family lives in Dallas and he just bought a giant house there.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying - it is possible he will be considered for that vacancy, should it materialize.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:01 pm to lsu2006
quote:
again wat
The Texas gig is going to offer the right coach $100 million for 10 years - maybe that's Saban only money, but even Gruden, Cowher, and other big names, "too big for college" guys might listen for that kind of scratch.
Longhorn network is hemorrhaging money.
Sorry for letting this get side-tracked - back to Miles.
A good point was raised earlier - Will Les keep his job if he averages "only" 9 wins a year for the next 4?
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:19 pm to Ace Midnight
Saban bolts to UT only if Bama gets sanctioned for that 2011 season.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:23 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
I should have clarified - by the time he gets wins 137 and 138, if it takes him 4 years and change - that's about right.
My bad, I wasn't clear. I don't think Les will have that many losses by the time he reaches 138. Not with the talent we have coming in. I'm hopeful at least. I mean, your talking almost 4 losses per year.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:25 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
It's Saban, Payton or bust, I think - 10 years, $100 million - the first guy to reach for it gets the job.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:26 pm to Ace Midnight
Think he'll pull out 10 wins this season including a bowl win. But with many more seasons like that around Lsu I think the dream of him staying until 2018 is out of the picture with that production. As much as I would love to see that happen its slim. 
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