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Started By
Message
Game was lost on decision to kick the FG there.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:00 pm
Inexcusable to not go for it on 4th there. Now, before all you fools come and talk about how we needed to take the lead, let's rationally look at the only thing that matters. Possible outcomes and how they would pertain to our chance of winning the game.
There were basically 4 possible outcomes. We could kick and make it, kick and miss, go for it and make it, and go for it and not convert.
If we kick and make it, Rodgers and GB get the ball with 2:40 left and 2 timeouts. They will use 4 downs and slice through our defense to move to ball into FG range. They win the game.
If we miss it, what did happen happens. Our only chance would be they went conservative, ran it three times and kick it to us to have to drive 50 or so yards to get in FG range.
We go for it don't get it, same as above minus a few yards or field position.
If we get the first down, we run the clock down and kick the FG to take the lead as Aaron Rodgers sits on the sideline helpless as his useless D gives up the game. There is probably about a 50 percent chance of converting this 4th down.
Anybody who thinks anything other than going for it was a viable alternative is a fool. You have to understand that in games like this, whoever has the ball last will probably win. No different than the Super Bowl last year or our loss to San Fran.
There were basically 4 possible outcomes. We could kick and make it, kick and miss, go for it and make it, and go for it and not convert.
If we kick and make it, Rodgers and GB get the ball with 2:40 left and 2 timeouts. They will use 4 downs and slice through our defense to move to ball into FG range. They win the game.
If we miss it, what did happen happens. Our only chance would be they went conservative, ran it three times and kick it to us to have to drive 50 or so yards to get in FG range.
We go for it don't get it, same as above minus a few yards or field position.
If we get the first down, we run the clock down and kick the FG to take the lead as Aaron Rodgers sits on the sideline helpless as his useless D gives up the game. There is probably about a 50 percent chance of converting this 4th down.
Anybody who thinks anything other than going for it was a viable alternative is a fool. You have to understand that in games like this, whoever has the ball last will probably win. No different than the Super Bowl last year or our loss to San Fran.
10
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:01 pm to TheSexecutioner
Game was lost when you could get 9 fricking yards on 7 tries
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:01 pm to TheSexecutioner
If we go for it on 4th and don't convert when we're in easy field goal range then you start a thread about how we were stupid to not take the points.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:02 pm to tehchampion140
Game was lost when the front office refused to hire anyone to run this team! YOU NEED A LEADER!!!
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:02 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Inexcusable to not go for it on 4th there. Now, before all you fools come and talk about how we needed to take the lead, let's rationally look at the only thing that matters. Possible outcomes and how they would pertain to our chance of winning the game.
There were basically 4 possible outcomes. We could kick and make it, kick and miss, go for it and make it, and go for it and not convert.
If we kick and make it, Rodgers and GB get the ball with 2:40 left and 2 timeouts. They will use 4 downs and slice through our defense to move to ball into FG range. They win the game.
If we miss it, what did happen happens. Our only chance would be they went conservative, ran it three times and kick it to us to have to drive 50 or so yards to get in FG range.
We go for it don't get it, same as above minus a few yards or field position.
If we get the first down, we run the clock down and kick the FG to take the lead as Aaron Rodgers sits on the sideline helpless as his useless D gives up the game. There is probably about a 50 percent chance of converting this 4th down.
Anybody who thinks anything other than going for it was a viable alternative is a fool. You have to understand that in games like this, whoever has the ball last will probably win. No different than the Super Bowl last year or our loss to San Fran.
Yeah what he typed
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:02 pm to TheSexecutioner
Wow
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:02 pm to TheSexecutioner
The game was lost because this is not a good football team. In fact, it's a bad team.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:03 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Anybody who thinks anything other than going for it was a viable alternative is a fool.
Jesus Christ.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:03 pm to tehchampion140
quote:
If we go for it on 4th and don't convert when we're in easy field goal range then you start a thread about how we were stupid to not take the points.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:13 pm to tehchampion140
quote:
If we go for it on 4th and don't convert when we're in easy field goal range then you start a thread about how we were stupid to not take the points.
Hahahahahaha, I would do no such thing. It would be started by morons like you who don't understand how criminally punt/kick-happy coaches are. Coaches have been proven so completely and lopsidedly wrong by statistics, yet their bullshite still flies because idiots like you who think it's a decision where hindsight should effect things.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 7:14 pm
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:16 pm to tehchampion140
quote:
If we go for it on 4th and don't convert when we're in easy field goal range then you start a thread about how we were stupid to not take the points.
And anyway, go look at my posts on the in-game thread. I said on 3rd down that it was 4 down territory. So don't try to tell me that I'm speaking in hinesight. You just keep on believing that coaches with no clue about the fundamentals of game theory are fit to make decisions like whether to punt/kick or go for it.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:17 pm to TheSexecutioner
It will be interesting to see if we just throw caution to the wind from here on out and just start going really aggressive on 4th downs and the like.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:18 pm to TheSexecutioner
Than let's see the stats. You gave 4 outcomes each have a different % chance of occurring
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:19 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Alright Sid, let's hear your rebuttal. The league average on 4 yard conversions between the 20s is right at 50 percent.
So is it your opinion, that the Saints percentage would be lower against this Packers defense? Or that you would rather our defense on the field holding a 1 point lead than our offense trying to convert on something where far worse offenses convert 50 percent of the time?
So is it your opinion, that the Saints percentage would be lower against this Packers defense? Or that you would rather our defense on the field holding a 1 point lead than our offense trying to convert on something where far worse offenses convert 50 percent of the time?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:19 pm to TheSexecutioner
"Anyone who disagrees with me is an ignorant fool."
"Oh shite! I don't want people thinking I'm an ignorant fool! THIS GUY'S RIGHT!"
"Oh shite! I don't want people thinking I'm an ignorant fool! THIS GUY'S RIGHT!"
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:21 pm to St Augustine
quote:
It will be interesting to see if we just throw caution to the wind from here on out and just start going really aggressive on 4th downs and the like.
What are you talking about? Why the hell would we do that when we have been doing no better than any of the other clowns making these decisions. You don't need to throw caution to the wind. You just need to make the statistically correct decisions to give your team the best chance of winning. A statistician from Cal already did all the work for us. He has pinpointed the exact situations where you go for it on 4th. Coaches mess that up egregiously but this is a little bit of a different matter.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:21 pm to TheSexecutioner
Only way we win is if we score a TD there. Field wouldn't have matter. They had well over 3 minutes to score a FG. No way that abomination makes a stop
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:23 pm to mgdtiger
quote:
Than let's see the stats. You gave 4 outcomes each have a different % chance of occurring
I'm not going to go construct all of that. Probably wouldn't even have the means or sample data to get it down to a small margin of error. But its not something thats close and needs looking at. There was an over 50 percent chance we make that first.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:24 pm to Supernova
quote:
Only way we win is if we score a TD there. Field wouldn't have matter. They had well over 3 minutes to score a FG. No way that abomination makes a stop
Not entirely true. Getting a field goal AND running the clock down to inside of 40 or so seconds would have done it. So really, the first down was the key.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:27 pm to TheSexecutioner
I kinda agree with you here, but at the same hindsight is 20/20
I certainly wouldn't have felt comfortable with giving Rodgers the ball down 2 with almost 3:00 and 2 timeouts left against our shitty defense. At the same time, our defense actually did make some stops today.
I'm not sure how I'd have felt if we'd have gone for it and didn't get it.
I certainly wouldn't have felt comfortable with giving Rodgers the ball down 2 with almost 3:00 and 2 timeouts left against our shitty defense. At the same time, our defense actually did make some stops today.
I'm not sure how I'd have felt if we'd have gone for it and didn't get it.
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