Tuesday Severe weather for the Gulf Coast/Snowstorm for Arkansas

This is just one run from one model but a decent frame of reference

3 pm:



6 pm:



9 pm:



Midnight:



Severe weather for the Gulf Coast:



Big snow totals for Arkansas:





Models have been sitting pretty on this one for a while. Two sides of the same system. Looks like northern Arkansas might get clocked with snow a footer+ in some areas..

A negatively tilted trough with a jet streak entrance region aligned over North Texas will allow for a surface low to form in that general area. Strong upper level divergence all across the region via terms 2 and 3 of the ageostrophic wind equation. Arrows are divergent flow from the ageostrophic wind allowing for mass removal from the surface:



Positive vorticity advection pumping out of the base of the trough at 500 mb providing spin and lift:



Once the mid-latitude cyclone cranks up it will tap into plenty of Gulf moisture. Pumping it up and over into Arkansas. NW Arkansas getting TROWAL'd hard. Seen on the isentropic map with moisture and rising air howling out of the Gulf:






With cooler temperatures over the area and a small warm sector severe weather will be limited to closer to the coast along the cold front:



Very saturated for NW Arkansas. Entire column below freezing. Dendritic snow growth region saturated with abundant lift. This is a snow cranker: