re: Tornado! Threat Clearing Louisiana

quote:

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Here is your reason for the bust. Same thing has happened all week.

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The cap is just a symptom of the problem (probably not the best wording) that caused the bust. The actual reason was that the timing was off with the pieces of energy rotating around the base of the trough and that the trough was slower and deeper than what the models were showing earlier in the week. That allowed a prolonged period of SW flow off the high terrain of Mexico that transported warm dry air out in front of the system, that is the cap. Even so, with a much stronger cap in place than expected, the 00z FWD sounding showed that the cap had basically been eroded but there was not trigger for convective initiation since the next piece of energy hasn't kicked out across the warm sector. Timing is everything. Also, the slower deeper trough ejection will produce wind profiles tomorrow that are more supportive of a major squall line than discrete tornadic supercells.