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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:50 pm to im4LSU
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:50 pm to im4LSU
quote:
ea I know. Just curious to hear the opinions of some with more knowledge. Monday is really shitty. I'm getting back on the helicopter tomorrow, frick that
Don't confuse me for someone with more knowledge. I just poke around a few models where I can look at the map and convert UTC to Central Daylight Time and pass on the information.
1
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:50 pm to CuseTiger
Me too. I am kind of self taught myself. But, getting the hang of it.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:51 pm to slackster
Added link to model page w/ run times in the 1st post
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:53 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
have to say I really like the tropical tidbits site. The 10 min youtube videos right at the front really help me understand what's going on. The most recent one was at 7:30pm tonight LINK
I learned more in that 10 minute video than I've learned in 20+ years of watching NHC warning cones and reading their discussions.
I've been reading about upper level troughs for years and now I know what it means. Sorta. Kinda.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:55 pm to slackster
GFS continues to be fricked.
embarassing that the U.S. government's weather model is so shitty.
not surprising though.
embarassing that the U.S. government's weather model is so shitty.
not surprising though.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:00 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
The GFS just can't handle the remnants of Fiona. If it is right then it is a HUGE victory, perhaps the biggest I have ever seen but the odds are really stacked against it. Even other models that use some of the same information as the GFS aren't having the same issues.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:01 pm to BigB0882
Here are some of the latest model runs:
CYYZ 291300Z 36005KT 15SM FEW060 FEW240 M01/M05 A3048 RMK SC1CI1 SC TR SLP329
CYYZ 291200Z 36005KT 15SM FEW065 FEW240 M03/M06 A3046 RMK SC1CI1 CI TR SLP323
CYYZ 291100Z 36005KT 15SM SKC M02/M05 A3045 RMK SLP318
CYYZ 291000Z 01005KT 15SM SKC M03/M06 A3045 RMK SLP318
CYYZ 290900Z 36006KT 15SM FEW065 M02/M06 A3044 RMK SC2 SLP314CYYZ 290800Z 36005KT 15SM FEW070 M02/M06 A3043 RMK AC1 SLP312
CYYZ 290700Z 36004KT 15SM FEW070 M01/M05 A3043 RMK AC1 SLP311
CYYZ 290600Z 01006KT 15SM SCT070 M02/M05 A3043 RMK AC3 SLP312
CYYZ 290500Z 36006KT 15SM SKC M01/M05 A3042 RMK SLP308
CYYZ 290400Z 36007KT 15SM SKC M00/M05 A3041 RMK SLP305
CYYZ 290300Z 36009KT 15SM SKC 00/M05 A3041 RMK SLP304
CYYZ 291300Z 36005KT 15SM FEW060 FEW240 M01/M05 A3048 RMK SC1CI1 SC TR SLP329
CYYZ 291200Z 36005KT 15SM FEW065 FEW240 M03/M06 A3046 RMK SC1CI1 CI TR SLP323
CYYZ 291100Z 36005KT 15SM SKC M02/M05 A3045 RMK SLP318
CYYZ 291000Z 01005KT 15SM SKC M03/M06 A3045 RMK SLP318
CYYZ 290900Z 36006KT 15SM FEW065 M02/M06 A3044 RMK SC2 SLP314CYYZ 290800Z 36005KT 15SM FEW070 M02/M06 A3043 RMK AC1 SLP312
CYYZ 290700Z 36004KT 15SM FEW070 M01/M05 A3043 RMK AC1 SLP311
CYYZ 290600Z 01006KT 15SM SCT070 M02/M05 A3043 RMK AC3 SLP312
CYYZ 290500Z 36006KT 15SM SKC M01/M05 A3042 RMK SLP308
CYYZ 290400Z 36007KT 15SM SKC M00/M05 A3041 RMK SLP305
CYYZ 290300Z 36009KT 15SM SKC 00/M05 A3041 RMK SLP304
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:02 pm to slackster
quote:
I learned more in that 10 minute video than I've learned in 20+ years of watching NHC warning cones and reading their discussions.
same here I do have a question about the last few frames in this image
Does it look like the two portions of the wave are beginning to consolidate? The wave doesn't look as spread out as earlier today
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:05 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
Yep, GFS back to nothing. Never seems to have any consistency. It's funny how it has supposedly been upgraded in the last few years.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:06 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
embarassing that the U.S. government's weather model is so shitty.
not surprising though.
I've talked to some of the folks at NCEP and they are just as frustrated as anyone. They are working with one hand tied behind their backs. It is actually pretty impressive what they have done with the limited computing power they have. There is new computing power coming online and plans to totally rework of the GFS with a new dynamic core. Hopefully, there will also be upgraded data assimilation to go with this. The problem is who knows when this will actually come online.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:07 pm to rds dc
didn't they just upgrade from like 750 teraflops to 6 petaflops tho?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:09 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Yep, GFS back to nothing. Never seems to have any consistency. It's funny how it has supposedly been upgraded in the last few years.
GFS is identical to the 18z so far. Not back to nothing yet.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:10 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
Does it look like the two portions of the wave are beginning to consolidate? The wave doesn't look as spread out as earlier today
Yeah rds has been mentioning this for a while. I believe that is the wave becoming more "vertically stacked". In essence, for strengthening you need lower level winds around the same center as the mid level winds.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:10 pm to GEAUXmedic
it seems to be basically a strong wave or a very weak TS on this run, yet again
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:12 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
it seems to be basically a strong wave or a very weak TS on this run, yet again
yeah, actually contrary to the last run shes just sitting there getting her act together. Upper level winds are improving.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:12 pm to GEAUXmedic
You're right, for some reason an old run came up and I didn't realize it.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:13 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
wait does anyone have a link to the 0z? i think i'm looking at the wrong run too.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:13 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GFS is identical to the 18z so far. Not back to nothing yet.
I just don't see this WNW or NW motion in the IR loops. Like none at all.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:13 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
didn't they just upgrade from like 750 teraflops to 6 petaflops tho?
Yes, but it isn't really helpful until the GFS upgrade is in place. There have been minor upgrades to some of the models like the HWRF and HRRR. However, until the GFS is upgraded all the models that use it for boundary layer parameteriztion will continue to suffer.
ETA: by upgrade, I mean replaced with a new version with a new dynamic core
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:20 pm
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