re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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Florida got pretty lucky that it didn't have more time. With that eyewall in place we could have seen some rapid intensification in the next 6-12 hours over water.

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Also, it came ashore in one of the more sparsely populated areas of the state.

The rain shield has really expanded on the northern side as the system interacts with the trough coming down. Storms that move up the East Coast are much more likely to have the precipitation max on the left side of the track while storms that landfall in the Gulf are more likely to have the max on the right side of the track. The models are showing this undergoing some extratropical transition but then, as the trough lifts out and a ridge builds over top, they are showing it transitioning back to more of a warm core tropical system. Tough forecast challenge for the MA & NE for this weekend.

I'm in SC and we are already getting hammered and the worst is still to come. Have already had just over 3 inches of rain in the past 2 hours. Schools here in this area are closed, flood warnings, tornado watches with high TOR:CON index values, winds already gusting to 40 mph..and from what we are being told they aren't expecting the heaviest stuff until this evening. Just an absolutely miserable, hellatiously messy day...and praying hard that we can somehow avoid more flooding. Everybody stay safe out there and just stay home if you don't absolutely have to go out in this mess.

Best wishes.

Ehh, they call every morning at the same time whether I answer or don't. They were completely non-phased about the storm last night. They're adults and have a dozen ways of contacting me if they actually needed to speak to me about something,

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Tough forecast challenge for the MA & NE for this weekend.

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I don't forecast far enough out to worry about it yet... but those that do have been all over the map. I think NWS had a forecast for Rhode Island that was like "72 and sunny. Tropical storm conditions possible"

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What the frick is wrong with you?

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I had a $100 bet with a dipshit buddy that this thing would become a hurricane a week ago.

You misspelled SUPER STORM Sandy

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If the westward trend continues, on the high end, this could be worse than Sandy and even Katrina like for areas of the Mid-Atlantic/NE.

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the prediction I saw this morning has it camped off North Jersey, south of Long Island, for days. Days of heavy squalls and gales for RI. NJ and NYC and Long Island Sound, Connecticut.

We may have a month of this left. The water off Dauphin Island, Alabama is 89 degrees. Same off the northern coast of Florida. plenty of locations 87 and 88.

Compare to Long Island Sound. 76 on the western enclosed end.
69 on the eastern end, which opens to the Atlantic.
So the wind should die down once its over water in the high 60's.


This business is the streams of New Jersey.
Should get interesting in a few days.

LINK

Go away, then