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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:13 pm to slackster
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:13 pm to slackster
I saw the local news guy(one with Margaret Oar(sp?) said that wave coming off Africa in his opinion will not pose much threat to Louisiana. I didn't hear his explanation as to why. I think he said cool fronts will be rolling through that will essentially push it away. True?
1
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:17 pm to deuce985
As we get later in the season it does get tougher for a storm to make it all the way across the atlantic withiut a front picking it up. Fronts start to come through fairly regularly by mid-late september
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:24 pm to slackster
See that convection blossoming to the NE...me thinks the turn is about to begin. It's struggling to spread out west and able to bubble up to the N and E. It's starting to feel the trough IMHO, and is about to turn.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:37 pm to Duke
The last couple frames on the radar show storms blowing up again in the SW blob.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:38 pm to jlu03
Storms along the northwest and northern fronts of this storm seem to be moving northeast. Is this the ridge starting to exert its force?
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:52 pm to Duke
quote:
See that convection blossoming to the NE...me thinks the turn is about to begin. It's struggling to spread out west and able to bubble up to the N and E. It's starting to feel the trough IMHO, and is about to turn.
The trough is actually still up in north central Canada and won't really start to play a significant role for another 24 hours or so. The system is now kind of caught in a weakness in the flow with the Plains ridge over the top and the Atlantic ridge to the east. The general trend should be N to NE until the trough starts to pick it up and accelerate it out.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:56 pm to GeauxTime9
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:57 pm to rds dc
10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 30
Location: 24.3°N 87.8°W
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Location: 24.3°N 87.8°W
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:58 pm to jlu03
It's starting to look a little mean
I'd say that it's coming together better than any other time in its life right at this moment. The LLC and the MLC are starting to align closer and closer to eachother, and when that happens we should see a massive storm churn up in terms of area covered. I still think this growth was too late in the process to make landfall at anything other than a TS or Cat 1, but I'm no professional.
I'd say that it's coming together better than any other time in its life right at this moment. The LLC and the MLC are starting to align closer and closer to eachother, and when that happens we should see a massive storm churn up in terms of area covered. I still think this growth was too late in the process to make landfall at anything other than a TS or Cat 1, but I'm no professional.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:03 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
The LLC and the MLC are starting to align closer and closer to each other
There is really no way to determine that without recon. Sat data, esp. at night just isn't good enough. Maybe if we get an ASCAT pass before recon gets back in there then you could make some assumptions about what is going on.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:03 pm to RazorBroncs
looks like a big ole girl
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:04 pm to jlu03
quote:
The last couple frames on the radar show storms blowing up again in the SW blob.
As if we needed anymore proof that we're far from experts on the tropics, let our continued use of the word "blob" be Exhibit A as to how informal it is.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:05 pm to rds dc
quote:
Maybe if we get an ASCAT pass before recon gets back in there then you could make some assumptions about what is going on.
That ASCAT thing is really something. I need to read up more on how it works.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:06 pm to TypoKnig
quote:
Storms along the northwest and northern fronts of this storm seem to be moving northeast. Is this the ridge starting to exert its force?
To my knowledge that is just outflow and not necessarily indicative of any steering patterns.
I'm no expert, but I did just finish watching Levi's latest blog on TropicalTidbits.com.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:08 pm to slackster
quote:
That ASCAT thing is really something. I need to read up more on how it works.
We need rapid scan ASCAT and microwave and not just sitting around drinking beer waiting for it to maybe pass close by
Oh, and 24/7 Global Hawk flights for storms threatening the US.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:10 pm to Hulkklogan
I think it's toughness speaks to how fertile conditions are this season
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:12 pm to slackster
quote:
As if we needed anymore proof that we're far from experts on the tropics, let our continued use of the word "blob" be Exhibit A as to how informal it is.
At least y'all don't use landmass
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:14 pm to rds dc
quote:
Oh, and 24/7 Global Hawk flights for storms threatening the US.
When I read about that thing this morning I wondered why it doesn't completely replace hurricane hunter flights altogether.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:14 pm to rds dc
Thanks for the clarification rds.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:23 pm to RazorBroncs
I think it was John Hope who said when you get the massive cloud deck to the east of a tropical system, as indicated in that pic, you can expect a very rapidly strengthening storm that will get very large as long as it doesn't have any westerly wind shear.
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