re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

Storm surge would absolutely frick the Tampa area.

I'll admit 99L models are making me a little nervous today.

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TD 7 has formed well out in the Atlantic

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Now upgraded to TS Gaston, no threat to land.

It's actually funny because this is the one time where you want to see it turn into a hurricane before it gets near Florida because it would get sucked out to open sea. It has too much dry air and it's possible even more gets pulled down to it which COULD be a good thing but also another problem is it might stall near Florida sucking up power which would be really bad. Since it's weak and will likely remain so it's going to stay on a west track which is bad for Florida and Louisiana.

Best thing we can hope for is it just gets ripped up at some point before it can form. European model has it having decent circulation by around Sunday near Florida.

I am worried that the models are still under-estimating the ridge. They have trended stronger and stronger with that ridge and some of the models often break down ridges too quickly. I could see this making it further west which would put Louisiana on notice. I won't worry too much, though, the models can't even agree if this will get its act together or not.

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That's a large percentage of the models bringing it over the Florida peninsula.

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That image is from the GEFS, it only has 3 members that really develop the system. That is a pretty weak signal for an ensemble model. The Euro EPS also has a few members that develop the system but, once again, that is a pretty weak signal.

99L ingested a good bit of dry air and that shows up pretty nicely in the 18z HWRF cross section at 00hr but the HWRF still goes on to blow 99L up. I'm still not convinced the HWRF handles the upper levels properly beyond 2 or 3 days (I've had discussion with the developers about this) and it appears to be doing it again. By 126hr the HWRF has a nearly perfect anticyclone over the top of 99L while the other models show a upper level trough in the area producing shear.

I still remain skeptical that anything will come of 99L but it is certainly worth watching since the general pattern could eventually steer it towards the Gulf.

euro still has 99L strengthening and making landfall in florida and into the gulf.

eta:

you mean like...?

ok downvote me. cool.

^ not directed at GM

eta ^

So 980mb puts it at what Cat...or is more of a rainmaker?

I just got the shakes seeing that '05 chart...

Obviously would be catastrophic, but do you or anyone see an slight NE movement at the very end of that projection?

ETA: Actually looks more NW but away from LA