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re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm out of this state permanently if a hurricane hits us this year.
0
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:42 pm to rds dc
99L looks like an east coast storm to me. Still too far out to tell and the storm has a lot of dry air to fight through the next couple of days.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 4:45 pm to GEAUXmedic
Murphy's Law always wins. And after this flooding I'd believe it could happen.
Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:03 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
way too far out to take that model run seriously
Yea, still almost no support for that kind of solution. Way more signals pointing against it than for it.
This post was edited on 8/20/16 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 8/20/16 at 6:07 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
Can someone tell me what peej isn't predicting?
This is the reason I came to this thread.. Just to see what PJ is saying about these storms.
Posted on 8/21/16 at 9:52 am to OweO
99L 
Models have really backed off on 99L and seem to be more interested in 90L. Conditions seem a bit more favorable for 90L but it looks to head out to sea, if it develops.
Models have really backed off on 99L and seem to be more interested in 90L. Conditions seem a bit more favorable for 90L but it looks to head out to sea, if it develops.
This post was edited on 8/21/16 at 9:55 am
Posted on 8/21/16 at 9:53 am to OweO
You are a strange stalker Chris.
This post was edited on 8/21/16 at 9:54 am
Posted on 8/21/16 at 9:54 am to rds dc
quote:
99L
I like the structure.
Posted on 8/21/16 at 10:24 am to rds dc
Hurricane season has been incredibly boring the last 3 years.
Posted on 8/21/16 at 10:28 am to GeorgeTheGreek
Isn't that a good thing?????
Posted on 8/21/16 at 11:18 am to rds dc
quote:
Hurricane Season - Peak Season Thread - No Imminent Gulf Threats
Great. You just jinxed us.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 4:19 am to rds dc
90L looks a lot like it's going to become a depression today.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 4:54 am to baytiger
90L is looking like it'll eventually become a beast... a fish... but still a beast. It'll be interesting to see what happens to 99L once it gets into more favorable conditions. It got a taste earlier tonight and started with the popcorn convection. Also, will be interesting to see the timing, and if that ridge across the southeast sets up 99L to end up in the Gulf.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 5:50 am to GEAUXmedic
More model fantasy wackiness:
Posted on 8/22/16 at 6:10 am to GEAUXmedic
that system (currently 99l) is kind of interesting because most of the models do have it developing into a system early next week, but they have it going anywhere from Texas to the Carolinas. Huge spread.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 6:16 am to baytiger
quote:
that system (currently 99l) is kind of interesting because most of the models do have it developing into a system early next week, but they have it going anywhere from Texas to the Carolinas. Huge spread.
I had to laugh, there was one facebook page with the headline "Major hurricane to hit Gulf Coast next week", and another said "100% chance we will not be affected by invest 99L".
Get real, this far out, you don't know shite.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 6:44 am to baytiger
quote:
that system (currently 99l) is kind of interesting because most of the models do have it developing into a system early next week, but they have it going anywhere from Texas to the Carolinas. Huge spread.
It has been the prototypical wave of the past few seasons. Looked good coming off Africa, models too aggressive with development early on, NHC appears aggressive and then has to walk back chances, then it just hangs around not really doing much, then eventually might find better conditions off the SE or in the Gulf.
The convective pattern this morning suggest that dry air is still an issue. Shear also looks unfavorable in the near term. Biggest concern at this point appears to be it getting trapped under a ridge and stalling out along the northern Gulf. It will be a tricky forecast with an active WPAC causing downstream issues for the models.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 6:45 am to rds dc
quote:
The convective pattern this morning suggest that dry air is still an issue. Shear also looks unfavorable in the near term. Biggest concern at this point appears to be it getting trapped under a ridge and stalling out along the northern Gulf. It will be a tricky forecast with an active WPAC causing downstream issues for the models.
Thats not what we want. We want it to strengthen. The weaker it is, the more westward it will go.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 9:17 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Thats not what we want. We want it to strengthen. The weaker it is, the more westward it will go.
I don't really have any thoughts, at this time, as to what 99L might do down the road but did feel models were too aggressive early on. It wouldn't surprise me if the SE ridge ends up being more than models are currently showing. That could increase chances of it moving towards FL/ Gulf.
Posted on 8/22/16 at 11:09 am to baytiger
quote:
90L looks a lot like it's going to become a depression today.
Continues to look good. Upgrade later today?
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