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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/23/16 at 6:00 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/23/16 at 6:00 am to GEAUXmedic
there is no Fiona at that point. they're just open waves and they conglomerate a bit west of Florida... but it looks more like 90L's the dominant one to me.
actually taking a closer look at the vort, you could argue that it's actually neither, as the vort from 90L dissipates east of the bahamas and the vort max from fiona goes into the carolinas while this develops from a separate vort max that splits off over the everglades at 132-138h.
Either way it's a pointless argument as it's still a gulf threat 5-6 days out, same as the ecmwf.
actually taking a closer look at the vort, you could argue that it's actually neither, as the vort from 90L dissipates east of the bahamas and the vort max from fiona goes into the carolinas while this develops from a separate vort max that splits off over the everglades at 132-138h.
Either way it's a pointless argument as it's still a gulf threat 5-6 days out, same as the ecmwf.
2
Posted on 8/23/16 at 6:16 am to baytiger
quote:
Either way it's a pointless argument as it's still a gulf threat 5-6 days out, same as the ecmwf.
Yep, basically... but its something to talk about .
Posted on 8/23/16 at 6:34 am to GEAUXmedic
This would be sick... a moderate-strong cat 3, but the HWRF always pumps up intensity
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 6:36 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 7:21 am to baytiger
quote:
there is no Fiona at that point. they're just open waves and they conglomerate a bit west of Florida... but it looks more like 90L's the dominant one to me.
actually taking a closer look at the vort, you could argue that it's actually neither, as the vort from 90L dissipates east of the bahamas and the vort max from fiona goes into the carolinas while this develops from a separate vort max that splits off over the everglades at 132-138h.
Either way it's a pointless argument as it's still a gulf threat 5-6 days out, same as the ecmwf.
The two Euro runs are certainly raising an eyebrow but this looks like a very complex setup. It appears that the remnant vorticity of Fiona and the associated PW surge interact with 99L to various degrees on the different models. It appears that the Euro is kind of having the remnants of Fiona run cover for 99L and protecting it from the dry air on the southern flank of the high. It shows a much more moist environment for 99L as it approaches Florida than does the GFS.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 7:26 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This would be sick... a moderate-strong cat 3, but the HWRF always pumps up intensity
If anything, the HWRF has been missing convection in the short term. The persistent convection with 99L should be helping to moisten the local environment. Unfortunately, things look to be getting much more interesting over the next couple of days.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:09 am to rds dc
quote:
If anything, the HWRF has been missing convection in the short term. The persistent convection with 99L should be helping to moisten the local environment. Unfortunately, things look to be getting much more interesting over the next couple of days.
Well, not what I expected to hear from you... not good.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:14 am to rds dc
So, watch and wait for a couple of days......odds that it will affect the Keys??
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:15 am to rds dc
so 99L tracking more northerly?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:18 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Well, not what I expected to hear from you... not good.
I'm not saying that the HWRF final solution is correct but that, in the short term, there might be reasons to believe that 99L could be healthier than the models are depicting.
On another note, one difference b/w the Euro and GFS is how they are handling the "dry air" out in front of 99L. The GFS is much drier in the red circled area than the Euro as 99L moves towards Florida. That could play a big role.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:28 am to rds dc
As far as Louisiana is concerned, wouldn't we want a stronger storm as early as possible in hopes it starts to recurve?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:30 am to slackster
so none of these are going to make it in the GOM it looks like?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:33 am to LSUvegasbombed
I wouldn't say that. None of the named storms are a threat, but 99L could be.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:34 am to rds dc
If this storm was to impact Florida or Louisiana when would you estimate landfall?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 8:39 am to rds dc
Recon is on it's way
Posted on 8/23/16 at 9:16 am to GEAUXmedic
Will be interesting to see what they find.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 9:19 am to CapperVin
quote:way too far out for that right now. let's see if it's even going to get into the gulf first
If this storm was to impact Florida or Louisiana when would you estimate landfall?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 9:38 am to baytiger
Fiona is done
Gaston still intensifying now expected to become a cat 2 in the open Atlantic
Gaston still intensifying now expected to become a cat 2 in the open Atlantic
Posted on 8/23/16 at 9:41 am to lsuman25
The latest runs trended a bit more north and east but mainly because they ramped up intensity more quickly. If this takes a little longer to get together it should move further west. I also am really doubtful of that ridge breaking down when they say it will, that ridge has been persistent this summer if my memory is correct. Models are also notorious for underdoing the ridging beyond 3-4 days.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 9:45 am to BigB0882
Yea, i feel like this is gonna be a nerve racking next 5-7 days because it just seems like it can go just about anywhere. Hopefully with recon in there the models will get a better handle on the system in the coming days.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 9:48 am to BigB0882
Wait and see where the trends lie. Right now, west has the upper hand. Obviously that can change, but one run isn't going to do it.
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