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Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:53 am to MrSmith
Mainland US should not worry about Harvey-peej
.....
4 1/2 feet of rain.
.....
4 1/2 feet of rain.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:53 am to slackster
quote:Agreed.
He's highly confrontational which makes for quality entertainment.
So why do so many posters in these weather threads tell him to quit posting, or worse? His posts almost always make me
. I think we'd miss him if he stopped posting in them...
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:54 am to rds dc
quote:
12z GFS is slightly stronger and slightly west of 06z at landfall.
From there, it wouldn't take much of a shift to slide this over New Orleans. The biggest thing that jumped out at me was that the GFS trended towards a more compact and organized system.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:57 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Is that bend to the NW after the Yucatan the result of a stronger ridge to the NE or a small-scale Fujiwara effect with the other vorticity?
I know the NHC talked about Nate traveling around the western periphery of the ridge, but it also seems to behave like you'd see in the Fujiwara effect too.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:58 am to LSURussian
quote:
I think we'd miss him if he stopped posting in them...
Well we'd definitely be less prepared without his predictions to fade.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:59 am to slackster
quote:Okay, but you know what I'm referring to. Most of the early models were way off, resulting in a wrong consensus cone. (I admit I'm not a hurricane geek so I don't know all the terminology and forecasting timelines.)
lso, it's worth noting that this was never the NHC forecast.
Hell, half the time when I read rds dc's hurricane posts I feel like I'm reading a foreign language. I still don't know what "CAG" means but it seems to be important.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 11:06 am
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:00 am to LSURussian
I dont believe this shift east
We all know these things end up shifting west toward LA
-LA chicken littles
We all know these things end up shifting west toward LA
-LA chicken littles
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:01 am to rds dc
RDS What is worst case scenario for NOLA as far as intensity. It seems to me like pretty much no one here is putting much thought into this storm and since its supposed to be on the coast at around 6am Sunday morning most people will have no clue if by some chance rapid intensification happens after the 10pm advisory on Saturday.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:01 am to LSURussian
quote:
Hell, half the time when I read rds dc's hurricane posts I feel like I'm reading a foreign language. I still don't know what "CAG" means but is seems to be important.
Idk what the hell he's talking about either, but I know where to find quality maps and gifs, so I tag along.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:02 am to LSURussian
Question
WIth this storm moving so fast, does it have a chance to impact our area earlier now on Saturday? 7pm landfall they are saying right?
Also the quicker the storm the more chance it may not be able to get stronger? Just questions
WIth this storm moving so fast, does it have a chance to impact our area earlier now on Saturday? 7pm landfall they are saying right?
Also the quicker the storm the more chance it may not be able to get stronger? Just questions
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:02 am to slackster
quote:
Is that bend to the NW after the Yucatan the result of a stronger ridge to the NE or a small-scale Fujiwara effect with the other vorticity?
I'm not sure it's exactly a fujiwara but Nate should get a bump NW off the other low pressure area down in the BOC. Riding along the E and N side of it, flow ought to be coming from the South and SE eventually around the other low and give Nate a kick while the edge of the ridge flows him in a similar direction too.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:02 am to Cosmo
quote:
I dont believe this shift east
We all know these things end up shifting west toward LA
-LA chicken littles
What time we heading down to glassman's camp in Venice?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:03 am to LSU5508
At this point there is almost no way for this to be more than a cat 1
Jumping from a disorganized TS into major hurricane in less than 36 hours just isnt happening
Jumping from a disorganized TS into major hurricane in less than 36 hours just isnt happening
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 11:03 am
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:03 am to Cosmo
quote:
I dont believe this shift east We all know these things end up shifting west toward LA -LA chicken littles
Tropical systems have a weird effect on people, at least the people who post in these threads. Wishcasting can get out of control. Gut feelings abound.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:03 am to Cosmo
quote:
I dont believe this shift east
We all know these things end up shifting west toward LA
-LA chicken littles
Yep. There was a post almost word-for-word like that yesterday. Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:04 am to Y.A. Tittle
Im at camp in grand isle, Artie's hurricane party starts tonight at 7
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:04 am to slackster
quote:Good word!
Wishcasting
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:05 am to longhorn22
quote:
Also the quicker the storm the more chance it may not be able to get stronger? Just questions
This is worded a bit weird, but yes, a quicker storm gives it less time to get its act together. It doesn't really prevent strengthening on its own, but it gives it less time to do anything. If it was already a strong storm, the speed would give it less time to weaken, for example.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:06 am to LSURussian
quote:
Hell, half the time when I read rds dc's hurricane posts I feel like I'm reading a foreign language. I still don't know what "CAG" means but is seems to be important.
I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua
Could be wrong though
ETA: it's that gyre that's helping slow Nate's intensification currently I do believe
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 11:07 am
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