re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

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At this point there is almost no way for this to be more than a cat 1

Jumping from a disorganized TS into major hurricane in less than 36 hours just isnt happening

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that's not accurate at all. THIS STORM might not do that, but it's certainly possible. Wilma went from like Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 6 hours or something crazy like that.

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I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua

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Thanks. I even googled "CAG hurricane" and got nothing.

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Gut feelings abound.

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I watch the neighbor's cows in the field morning of.

They start acting weird, something bad is up.

Might seem silly. But those strong southern winds last Friday night in BR prompted me to buy a few extra 40 packs of water.

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This is worded a bit weird, but yes, a quicker storm gives it less time to get its act together. It doesn't really prevent strengthening on its own,

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In this case, it might be moving fast enough to act as a limit on strengthening. Once Nate is really flying over the gulf, the east side will be pulling up a lot of heat with those strong steering currents helping out of the S and SE. The west side will have those steering winds working against it, and limiting the heat the west side can pick up. Making Nate spend energy to just get and stay somewhat symmetrical instead of having all quadrants supplying good heat flux.

I might be overselling just how much the wind differential on sides matters, but it makes sense to me it would have an impact in this case with a small circulation trying to organize for the first time.

I hate when people make statements like he made. It’s like they are so nervous they make outlandish remarks when things look slightly better. Things by no means look good for Louisiana, just better.

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I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua

Could be wrong though

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Correct. I tried to avoid using that in this thread and for most of the thread I just referred to a broad area of lower pressure. The NHC started using gyre in the discussions and some other posters have posted it here and there. So I figured I could save some key strokes and use the preferred CAG.

if it misses the yucatan, we may get a hurricane earlier than predicted. The two gifs on this page show more spinning/tightening than we'd seen.

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All images are free to share publicly on social media, and on personal websites or blogs with moderation, with the stipulation that proper citation be given. Special requests may be directed to levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com.

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I wonder if young Levi would consider the use of his images in these threads as "moderate?"

I think we steer more people to his site though, and he's a beast.

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Correct. I tried to avoid using that in this thread and for most of the thread I just referred to a broad area of lower pressure. The NHC started using gyre in the discussions and some other posters have posted it here and there. So I figured I could save some key strokes and use the preferred CAG.

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I understand what you're saying completely... and I'm not against shorthand at all

just sometimes... you gotta do what we in the media call "re-establishing shots"... remind us what it is and why it's important... then go back to the shorthand for a while

Boat gets it