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SECretariat
Member since Jun 2015
211 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

This looks like the most raggedy assed, discombobulated storm ever. moving this fast I see no way it really gets its act together.


Sadly, it doesn't take long to get organized... it looks better formed in every new frame:


Zach Lee To Amp Hill
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2016
2590 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

At this point there is almost no way for this to be more than a cat 1

Jumping from a disorganized TS into major hurricane in less than 36 hours just isnt happening


that's not accurate at all. THIS STORM might not do that, but it's certainly possible. Wilma went from like Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 6 hours or something crazy like that.


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71
The Boat
Duke Fan
Nazi Germany
Member since Oct 2008
87083 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Models shifting back towards the east. Looks like I bought gas and water for nothing.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
100835 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua

Thanks. I even googled "CAG hurricane" and got nothing.


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
32765 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Sadly, it doesn't take long to get organized... it looks better formed in every new frame:


It does, and the current consensus seems to be little to no interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula, which would help things along the central Gulf coast.

It's still having hell in the NE quadrant, and until that gets more organized, it will be hindered.


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32
Rando
USA Fan
When IPs were Visible
Member since Apr 2015
8585 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Gut feelings abound.


I watch the neighbor's cows in the field morning of.

They start acting weird, something bad is up.

Might seem silly. But those strong southern winds last Friday night in BR prompted me to buy a few extra 40 packs of water.


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82
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
32765 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Models shifting back towards the east. Looks like I bought gas and water for nothing.


Pour it out then. At least you were prepared.


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
24613 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

This is worded a bit weird, but yes, a quicker storm gives it less time to get its act together. It doesn't really prevent strengthening on its own,


In this case, it might be moving fast enough to act as a limit on strengthening. Once Nate is really flying over the gulf, the east side will be pulling up a lot of heat with those strong steering currents helping out of the S and SE. The west side will have those steering winds working against it, and limiting the heat the west side can pick up. Making Nate spend energy to just get and stay somewhat symmetrical instead of having all quadrants supplying good heat flux.

I might be overselling just how much the wind differential on sides matters, but it makes sense to me it would have an impact in this case with a small circulation trying to organize for the first time.


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31
rt3
LSU Fan
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
46348 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Thanks. I even googled "CAG hurricane" and got nothing.

that's my 1 tiny complaint with these threads sometimes... they use all this meteorology shorthands that most of us common folk don't understand

have to look at like 5 different sources to put it all together and make sense


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61
iamAG
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Aug 2015
2894 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
I hate when people make statements like he made. It’s like they are so nervous they make outlandish remarks when things look slightly better. Things by no means look good for Louisiana, just better.


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11062 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:


I believe "CAG" stands for "Central American Gyre"... which I think is a fancy way of saying monsoon rains over Honduras & Nicaragua

Could be wrong though


Correct. I tried to avoid using that in this thread and for most of the thread I just referred to a broad area of lower pressure. The NHC started using gyre in the discussions and some other posters have posted it here and there. So I figured I could save some key strokes and use the preferred CAG.


SECretariat
Member since Jun 2015
211 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
You can see the region starting to spin up...


Muriel
New Orleans Saints Fan
third ward
Member since Dec 2016
444 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
if it misses the yucatan, we may get a hurricane earlier than predicted. The two gifs on this page show more spinning/tightening than we'd seen.


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61
CapperVin
Chicago Cubs Fan
NOLA
Member since Apr 2013
5708 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Thank goodness!! Wishcasters dreams are about to be ruined!! Hopefully it will be nothing more than a thunderstorm for our area


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47
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
32765 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:


All images are free to share publicly on social media, and on personal websites or blogs with moderation, with the stipulation that proper citation be given. Special requests may be directed to levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com.





I wonder if young Levi would consider the use of his images in these threads as "moderate?"

I think we steer more people to his site though, and he's a beast.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 11:19 am


MrSmith
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2009
7181 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

I think we steer more people to his site though, and he's a beast.

Definitely


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20
rt3
LSU Fan
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
46348 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Correct. I tried to avoid using that in this thread and for most of the thread I just referred to a broad area of lower pressure. The NHC started using gyre in the discussions and some other posters have posted it here and there. So I figured I could save some key strokes and use the preferred CAG.

I understand what you're saying completely... and I'm not against shorthand at all

just sometimes... you gotta do what we in the media call "re-establishing shots"... remind us what it is and why it's important... then go back to the shorthand for a while


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50
The Boat
Duke Fan
Nazi Germany
Member since Oct 2008
87083 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Things by no means look good for Louisiana, just better.


They look good for Baton Rouge which is all that really matters.


Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
82074 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Boat gets it


Chad504boy
USA Fan
Member since Feb 2005
116634 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Covington is nearly out the cone. i may not even tie up my travel trailer cover.


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