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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:25 am to LSURussian
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:25 am to LSURussian
quote:
And earlier this week the NHC model consensus cone had Nate going into Florida between Destin and Tallahassee. Let's make fun of their forecasting abilities while we're at it.....
quote:
LSURussian
What a buzzkill.
2
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:28 am to slackster
So NOLA might not take a direct hit? Hmm. Neighbors of NOLA, don't tell us Peej didn't warn you 
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:29 am to tilco
This looks like the most raggedy assed, discombobulated storm ever. moving this fast I see no way it really gets its act together. I know its good to be prepared but I just don't see how this thing can be much of anything other than a slight wind and rain event.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:29 am to LSURussian
between the last 2 dropsondes in the eye of Nate... Nate's moved 0.6 N 0.1 W in 1 hr 54 min
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:31 am to artompkins
just enough to cause power outages which will be annoying as hell.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:34 am to slackster
quote:I know this board's Hurricane Mafia likes to pile on Peej and he certainly brings a lot of it on himself.
What a buzzkill.
But he is far from being the only person who is wrong on his forecasts for where a storm is eventually going. A lot of posters on here just parrot the latest forecast consensus and forget the consensus changes daily, sometimes by a LOT! And they seem to only remember their own latest forecast forgetting it has changed.
Remember when the NHC consensus was for Irma to go well east of Florida and out to sea not even making a U.S. mainland landfall? Then it changed to it making landfall near Miami and then had it going up the west coast of Florida and making landfall near Tampa/St Pete before nudging it back towards the east.
So why not ridicule all the wrong forecasts?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:35 am to LSURussian
quote:to be fair, PJ has earned his reputation for being wrong about everything, not just hurricanes
So why not ridicule all the wrong forecasts?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:36 am to bee Rye
Point taken. 
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:36 am to LSURussian
quote:
So why not ridicule all the wrong forecasts?
Because Lehigh.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:37 am to bee Rye
Has a state of emergency been declared for. Aron Rouge
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:38 am to rds dc
12z GFS is better organized and more compact through 30hrs vs recent runs.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:38 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:40 am to loogaroo
Hello Buras
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:42 am to LSURussian
That's because people don't understand uncertainty. Climate and weather is an ever evolving change where over night something can happen that completely changes the dynamics of where a storm can go. It's not something that's easily predictable. That's why they give you all this information and show you probability this storm can still have RI or it might be a weak Cat 1 by the time it hits land. The closer it gets the lower the probability goes down and more accurate it gets. They have certainly whiffed on some things like Maria's intensity forecast was WAY off in just 24 hours. They do what they can to inform people on the probabilities in play and how they can change the storm.
As far as Irma goes, I think the NHC did a fantastic job predicting where that storm was going to go. What you're talking about was well past 7 days out which we all know can't be predicted. On that storm I remember 7 days out they were consistent on the turn north being just off Florida's coast hitting SC/NC or off the west side of Florida. Turned out it hit the west side but the tracks were very consistent for 7 days in that area on the northward turn. Gave plenty of people time to prepare. The alternative is you can be like Central America and have 20 deaths from a tropical storm.
We've had this discussion before but every year they get more accurate. An example, just compare the cones from 10 years ago compared to how they are now.
As far as Irma goes, I think the NHC did a fantastic job predicting where that storm was going to go. What you're talking about was well past 7 days out which we all know can't be predicted. On that storm I remember 7 days out they were consistent on the turn north being just off Florida's coast hitting SC/NC or off the west side of Florida. Turned out it hit the west side but the tracks were very consistent for 7 days in that area on the northward turn. Gave plenty of people time to prepare. The alternative is you can be like Central America and have 20 deaths from a tropical storm.
We've had this discussion before but every year they get more accurate. An example, just compare the cones from 10 years ago compared to how they are now.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 10:43 am
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:45 am to deuce985
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:46 am to rds dc
12z GFS is slightly stronger and slightly west of 06z at landfall.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:48 am to LSURussian
quote:
I know this board's Hurricane Mafia likes to pile on Peej and he certainly brings a lot of it on himself.
But he is far from being the only person who is wrong on his forecasts for where a storm is eventually going. A lot of posters on here just parrot the latest forecast consensus and forget the consensus changes daily, sometimes by a LOT! And they seem to only remember their own latest forecast forgetting it has changed.
The difference is:
A) PJ is often wrong on a epic scale. Harvey, BR floods, Lehigh, etc.
B) PJ posts with a confidence that is completely unwarranted. "there is absolutely no need for this thread right now", for example.
C) He posts with the caps lock on, at random, for no reason.
D) He's highly confrontational which makes for quality entertainment.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:49 am to rds dc
Well, crap
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:49 am to slackster
quote:
PJ posts with a confidence that is completely unwarranted. "there is absolutely no need for this thread right now", for example.
That's the biggest thing for me
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:52 am to LSURussian
quote:
Remember when the NHC consensus was for Irma to go well east of Florida and out to sea not even making a U.S. mainland landfall? Then it changed to it making landfall near Miami and then had it going up the west coast of Florida and making landfall near Tampa/St Pete before nudging it back towards the east.
Also, it's worth noting that this was never the NHC forecast. They stick to 5-day forecasts, and they were actually very good with Irma. However, some of the computer models past 5 days were showing the out to sea route early in the development.
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