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otowntiger
LSU Fan
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
11544 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
A pro Met. Over on Storm2k says that the Euro is now forecasting a strong trough over most of the gulf by the time the forecast 'system' down in the Caribbean is in the gulf. This would keep whatever this is by then well in check.


PsychTiger
LSU Fan
Charleston
Member since Jul 2004
48186 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Luckily, Lee has stay well away from any land. It was left for dead and then, without any model support, came back and made the run to major. Lee has also stayed a very small system.


Lee has a great strategic mind. He is using Maria for cover while he plots his flanking maneuver on Baltimore and DC.


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42
BigB0882
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
2510 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Is that really a big swath of 150 kJ/sqcm? FUUUUCK. That's a shitload of energy available. No shear and we get to test the theoretical limits of hurricane strength in our basin. That's the sort of potential we all want to see.


But no shear at this time of year is rare, especially as you go further West into the Gulf. It is rare that fronts have not come through by October. So any storm moving north towards the coast will probably run into shear and major dry air.
This post was edited on 9/28 at 2:51 pm


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11057 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

A pro Met. Over on Storm2k says that the Euro is now forecasting a strong trough over most of the gulf by the time the forecast 'system' down in the Caribbean is in the gulf. This would keep whatever this is by then well in check.



Yea, pretty big flip on the Euro in the last 24 hrs. Yesterday, had a ridging across the East and today it flipped. That shift also totally switched up the upper levels across the Gulf.

12z yesterday:



12z today:




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40
MottLaneKid
LSU Fan
Gonzales
Member since Apr 2012
4170 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Dry air would almost be a certainty in October as a potential TC approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The outer circulation would act like a mid-latitude cyclone.


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Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
24613 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

But no shear at this time of year is rare


Certainly. That's why I noted no shear being necessary for the rest of my fear mongering.

quote:

So any storm moving north towards the coast will probably run into shear and major dry air.



Oh yeah. Looking for the specifics to become more in focus, but I expect the gulf to be pretty hostile to any system this time of year until I see otherwise. Furthermore, with the fronts swinging down you'd expect most systems that would end up in the gulf get the boot toward Florida.

These later season storms have been known to be a nightmare for central America if they don't catch a slap out NE as the water down in the W Caribbean is always quite warm and deep.


Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
82024 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
History shows once you get to mid october TX/LA/FL panhandle are pretty safe


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
24613 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Yeah. Only one I can remember hitting the central gulf in October was Lili and she hit really early in October.


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11057 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
99L



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20
lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
13321 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Hurricane Juan was in late October.


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11057 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:


Hurricane Juan was in late October.


Juan was obviously messed up. Showed up late and didn't know where to go


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11057 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Also, Louisiana is 2nd in October hurricane landfalls behind Florida.


NawlinsTiger9
New Orleans Saints Fan
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
17165 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Can I be the first to suggest that the models are all wrong and it's going to shift many hundreds of miles to the West?


This made me laugh so damn hard


Fat Harry
Tulane Fan
70115
Member since Mar 2005
1073 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
The Lilli comment got me thinking about that year. Isidore hit as a Cat 3 and Lilli was a few weeks later. Yet, I don't remember any real fear in NOLA or damage. My how things have changed.


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
24613 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Also, Louisiana is 2nd in October hurricane landfalls behind Florida.


Huh, always learning stuff in these threads. Need to brush up on my late season history looks like.


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00
lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
13321 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Isidore hit the Yucatan as a Cat 3, when it got to Louisiana it was a strong tropical storm.


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30
PsychTiger
LSU Fan
Charleston
Member since Jul 2004
48186 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

Breaking: Florida says they can't play the LSU game due to safety concerns.


LSU should step up and host the game in Baton Rouge. I'm sure Florida will be amenable to that solution.


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30
rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11057 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:


Juan was obviously messed up. Showed up late and didn't know where to go




FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
1684 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
quote:

If I knew where your trailer was, I would burn it down.



Thracken13
Auburn Fan
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
9803 posts

re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
i remember 4 years ago Oct 5th, a hurricane blew up in the middle gulf and was supposed to hit Mobile - same day I was getting married at Bellingrath gardens.

scrambled to change from outdoor to indoor - and then the damn thing pretty much dissipated.

fricking tropical weather systems :P


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