re: 2015 Season-Long Hurricane Thread - Watching Invest 96L

my weather app is showing highs in upper 80s and lows in mid 60s for this weekend in cenla, is this happening ??

the entire eastern US should be unseasonably cool next week.

I'm personally looking forward to highs in the low 70s here in Boston

What does MJO mean and what does the second graph represent?

Still no Atlantic action?

saw this image, also, about the Pacific.
Imagine if this were the Atlantic and GOM.

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This morning's Crown Weather update:

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Tuesday 7/14/2015 - 9:35 am ET/8:35 am CT: Tropical Storm Claudette will track to the south of Nova Scotia today and will quickly weaken as we head into later today and Wednesday.

Now, I don’t think we are done with tropical development in close to the United States this month and in fact, I think we will see the formation of Danny within the next 2 weeks or so. This means that I am going to be keeping close tabs on any convective complexes that move offshore over the next couple of weeks and will also be closely eyeing frontal boundaries as they move offshore. My main concern area for potential tropical development from now to the end of this month is from the North and South Carolina coastline to Florida’s East Coast to the northern Gulf of Mexico.

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I think we will see the formation of Danny within the next 2 weeks or so.

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The pattern that would allow this continues but nothing has really gotten going. One interesting thing is that some of the ensemble models are showing a chance of something tracking W under the ridge. However, the equatorial wave pattern would appear to work against anything that tried that. So that leaves the most likely scenario being that anything that could form would move off to the NE and out to sea.

Im just trying to figure out how long it will be before another major hits the US, 10 years now is amazing

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a weak low pressure system is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for
some slow development through the weekend while the disturbance
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

It sure looks impressive today. It's the first of the cape verde season waves so let's be patient and see how the rest of the season unfolds. It's only July 29th and the peak is August 11th thru September 11th.

Peak for Louisiana is the same time period.






By the way, models:

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NHC must be bored... none of the models are developing this Cape Verde wave at all.

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It looks like they aren't even bothering with running the HWRF or GFDL for it

If, and this is a big if, the timing of the equatorial waves was faster than this might have had a chance and we might have seen something in the Gulf or off the SE already.



The TUTT is relaxing and SAL isn't going crazy, so there was actually a brief window but the forcing looks to suppress everything for the next few days.