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James Hurst's curious retirement announcement timing + Jeremiah's rumors = surprise?
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:12 pm
I have concocted a conspiracy theory that I think makes sense, but kind of goes against the Saints' drafting philosophy (maybe not, though) and would take a certain level of competence that most of you think Mickey does not possess. Still, here goes:
--Hurst's retirement announcement could not have come at a worse time for the Saints if we are looking to take an OT at 14 (or higher). Makes us look even more desperate than we already did (which was pretty damn desperate). Why would he do that? The Saints picked him up off the trash heap and resurrected his career. Why would he hose us like that? Unless, perhaps we asked him to.
--Along with the Hurst announcement, now we've got Daniel Jeremiah reporting we're looking at trading up for an OT. Why let that leak?
--This draft is full of "good to really good" OLs, but not "elite." Unless you think Alt is elite, and there's no real consensus on that. There's Alt, a gap, then a group of 4 or so (the 3 "F"s and Latham). Then another gap, then the next group (Mims from UGA, dudes from Oklahoma, BYU, and a couple more I'm forgetting). If you bunch both groups together, it's like 8-10 guys after Alt before a huge drop off. Maybe the Saints like the 8th guy as much as the 2nd.
--rumors starting to get louder about us trading Latt. But due to cap reasons, it has to be after June 1st (I think). Regardless of exactly when it is, it can't be for picks in this draft, it will have to be for picks in '25.
--it appears Adebo will be a free agent after the '24 season as there have been no rumors of an extension. Either we offered one and he didn't take it and is betting on himself or we want to see him string together a 2nd good year in a row before making that commitment. Another good to great season, and he probably prices himself out of New Orleans, leaving a decent chance we go into the '25 season without either Latt or Adebo.
The conspiracy:
We got Hurst to announce his retirement the day before the draft and leaked to DJ we're making calls to trade up in order for teams looking for OTs to have to jump us at 14. But we don't like the value of any OT at 14. So we're trying to get more OT picks before 14 in hopes that the top CB on our board will still be there. Or maybe we like a couple the same (guy from Toledo, the 2 Bama guys, and the Clemson guy) and are willing to--gasp!!--even trade back a couple of spots to get a little more draft capital in order to trade back in to the late 1st or early 2nd and take our OT there, where we think the value is much better and can still get a guy we have ranked about the same as anybody that we could have taken at 14. And, loathe as we all are to trade away next year's picks, it's a lot more palatable if we know we're going to recoup some of them in the potential Lattimore trade.
So we come away with a starting corner AND a starting OT, just in a different order than everyone expects, and with better value for each player at 2 premium positions. And though we may have to give up next year's 2nd or 3rd (or both), expect to recoup those from whoever we wind up trading Latt to. And if Adebo leaves in free agency, we can slide Alontae from slot corner to his more natural position outside, where he prefers to play anyway, and figure out slot corner through developing guys already on the roster, the '25 draft, or free agency.
--Hurst's retirement announcement could not have come at a worse time for the Saints if we are looking to take an OT at 14 (or higher). Makes us look even more desperate than we already did (which was pretty damn desperate). Why would he do that? The Saints picked him up off the trash heap and resurrected his career. Why would he hose us like that? Unless, perhaps we asked him to.
--Along with the Hurst announcement, now we've got Daniel Jeremiah reporting we're looking at trading up for an OT. Why let that leak?
--This draft is full of "good to really good" OLs, but not "elite." Unless you think Alt is elite, and there's no real consensus on that. There's Alt, a gap, then a group of 4 or so (the 3 "F"s and Latham). Then another gap, then the next group (Mims from UGA, dudes from Oklahoma, BYU, and a couple more I'm forgetting). If you bunch both groups together, it's like 8-10 guys after Alt before a huge drop off. Maybe the Saints like the 8th guy as much as the 2nd.
--rumors starting to get louder about us trading Latt. But due to cap reasons, it has to be after June 1st (I think). Regardless of exactly when it is, it can't be for picks in this draft, it will have to be for picks in '25.
--it appears Adebo will be a free agent after the '24 season as there have been no rumors of an extension. Either we offered one and he didn't take it and is betting on himself or we want to see him string together a 2nd good year in a row before making that commitment. Another good to great season, and he probably prices himself out of New Orleans, leaving a decent chance we go into the '25 season without either Latt or Adebo.
The conspiracy:
We got Hurst to announce his retirement the day before the draft and leaked to DJ we're making calls to trade up in order for teams looking for OTs to have to jump us at 14. But we don't like the value of any OT at 14. So we're trying to get more OT picks before 14 in hopes that the top CB on our board will still be there. Or maybe we like a couple the same (guy from Toledo, the 2 Bama guys, and the Clemson guy) and are willing to--gasp!!--even trade back a couple of spots to get a little more draft capital in order to trade back in to the late 1st or early 2nd and take our OT there, where we think the value is much better and can still get a guy we have ranked about the same as anybody that we could have taken at 14. And, loathe as we all are to trade away next year's picks, it's a lot more palatable if we know we're going to recoup some of them in the potential Lattimore trade.
So we come away with a starting corner AND a starting OT, just in a different order than everyone expects, and with better value for each player at 2 premium positions. And though we may have to give up next year's 2nd or 3rd (or both), expect to recoup those from whoever we wind up trading Latt to. And if Adebo leaves in free agency, we can slide Alontae from slot corner to his more natural position outside, where he prefers to play anyway, and figure out slot corner through developing guys already on the roster, the '25 draft, or free agency.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:18 pm to Hot Carl
I wonder if we're actually more interested in one of murphy, verse, latu, or Turner and we need more offensive players to be taken.
As bad as our OL situation is, our DL is worse.
As bad as our OL situation is, our DL is worse.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:22 pm to Hot Carl
I always find a good conspiracy entertaining, but a few potential flaws here.
There was nothing to leak to Jeremiah, it is a known fact around the league that Loomis uses the week before to work through scenarios with other teams about the potential costs to move up. He discussed this in a pre-draft interview a few years ago (2022?) and hinted at the fact that its a common theme around the league. Basically, figure out values to move up and minimize negotiation time while the clock is ticking
This is the first year Adebo's contract could have been extended. Saints rarely extend anyone in their last year, and considering the cap constraints they probably didn't want to do much with a guy only counting $3.6M against this year's cap.
If they were trying to leak info out to get some teams to jump up, wouldn't we be also hearing negative news about Ram right about now?
There was nothing to leak to Jeremiah, it is a known fact around the league that Loomis uses the week before to work through scenarios with other teams about the potential costs to move up. He discussed this in a pre-draft interview a few years ago (2022?) and hinted at the fact that its a common theme around the league. Basically, figure out values to move up and minimize negotiation time while the clock is ticking
This is the first year Adebo's contract could have been extended. Saints rarely extend anyone in their last year, and considering the cap constraints they probably didn't want to do much with a guy only counting $3.6M against this year's cap.
If they were trying to leak info out to get some teams to jump up, wouldn't we be also hearing negative news about Ram right about now?
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:23 pm to htran90
Just take the best player you can.
Passing on Bowers for a reach at OT could be a disaster
Passing on Bowers for a reach at OT could be a disaster
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:25 pm to VA LSU fan
quote:
Passing on Bowers for a reach at OT could be a disaster
Or not getting an olineman where we dont even have average starters and have absolutely no depth could also be a disaster.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:35 pm to htran90
quote:
I wonder if we're actually more interested in one of murphy, verse, latu, or Turner and we need more offensive players to be taken.
I think this is actually more likely than a corner, specifically. I don't believe in what I wrote in the OP, I was just having fun. I don't think they'd pigeon hole themselves into having to take a corner like that. But I do think they'd try to get more offensive picks in front of them, hoping to get the BPA on defense. Maybe a guy they covet drops to 14 if a couple teams trade up to get an OL, WR, or Bowers.
Or maybe they covet Bowers or Odunze themselves. We'll see. I'm sure we'll all come away from tonight disappointed, but we'll at the very least be entertained.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:36 pm to Pels_Yaz
I heard the Hurst interview and he said Saints have known for a while that he was retiring. It does seem odd that Mickey is allowing us to go into a draft with such a giant hole, when his philosophy has ALWAYS been sign FAs to plug the holes, draft for best player available.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:38 pm to saints5021
quote:
Mickey is allowing us to go into a draft with such a giant hole, when his philosophy has ALWAYS been sign FAs to plug the holes
You need actual money to do that. Maybe someone finally told him stop hemorrhaging the salary cap.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:40 pm to Hot Carl
quote:
So we're trying to get more OT picks before 14 in hopes that the top CB on our board will still be there
If this is the case then, like I pointed out last year during the draft and quite a few times during the season, Loomis really shite the bed not picking Branch in the 2nd. Both our corners could play the outside where they are best at with Branch at the nickel corner.
So now we gonna waste a prime spot and pass on maybe a top talent like Bowers because Loomis has no vision for the future…..
Sounds about right and exactly why this franchise is not going anywhere fast…
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 4/25/24 at 3:59 pm to Hot Carl
quote:This is good to read. I was going to say Carl is high as a kite thinking Loomis is that crafty.
I don't believe in what I wrote in the OP, I was just having fun.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 4:48 pm to Hot Carl
Seriously Carl…ease up on the adderall
Posted on 4/25/24 at 5:07 pm to Hot Carl
I agree with u. It had me thinking conspiracy,too
Posted on 4/25/24 at 5:09 pm to Hot Carl
Had to bring in Randy Mueller to pull the trigger, Mickey just couldn't do it...
Posted on 4/25/24 at 5:11 pm to Hot Carl
If we give up future draft capital to move up 4 spots in a deep OL draft I might find Loomis and scalp him. Just take the best OL on your board at 14 and move on. There will be a quality starter there. Then you can double up at 45 for OL or get a WR or DT.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 5:13 pm to Hot Carl
No shot Mickey is that slick.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 5:13 pm to Weekend Warrior79
still think Hurst announcement time was orchestrated--thats my bet. we aren't taking a tackle at 14. But, then agan, I'd call an end around to Josh Hill on 4th and one. We will take the other Washington tackle later..
Posted on 4/25/24 at 6:10 pm to gsmith5651
quote:
still think Hurst announcement time was orchestrated-
It had to have been, right? Probably not for the scenario in the OP, but he could have announced that at any time, but he does it literally the day before the draft when it could most frick (or help, depending) the team that resurrected his career, gave him a 2nd chance, got him vested in the league and made him a multi-millionaire? I just can't believe it's a coincidence. He's either really stupid, or is trying to either frick or help the Saints. Right?
quote:
Bilj
quote:
DBG
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 6:10 pm
Posted on 4/25/24 at 6:19 pm to Hot Carl
It came out today that the Saints were well aware of Hurst’s retirement plans and I do believe that. It’s not something he just randomly sprung on them yesterday.
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