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re: Yadier Molina 2nd best catcher in baseball at 34?
Posted on 3/15/17 at 9:58 am to iamAG
Posted on 3/15/17 at 9:58 am to iamAG
It truly blows my mind how this dude gets so much love. He had a great run from 2011-2013, but he isn't that guy anymore.
This is the same guy who had a .660 OPS in 2015. He has a career OPS+ under 100. Last season he was 81st in WAR (not counting pitchers), 9th for catchers. His WAR over the last three years is 6.7. 95th for hitters.
His defense isn't what it used to be. In his prime he was getting a fangraphs defensive rating of 15+ every season (usually the best or near the top for all catchers). His rating has dropped for 4 straight seasons. 20.2 - 17.1 - 14.4 - 10.7 - 4.7. His 4.7 last year was 29th for catchers.
At this point he's the most overrated player in baseball. And it's not even close.
This is the same guy who had a .660 OPS in 2015. He has a career OPS+ under 100. Last season he was 81st in WAR (not counting pitchers), 9th for catchers. His WAR over the last three years is 6.7. 95th for hitters.
His defense isn't what it used to be. In his prime he was getting a fangraphs defensive rating of 15+ every season (usually the best or near the top for all catchers). His rating has dropped for 4 straight seasons. 20.2 - 17.1 - 14.4 - 10.7 - 4.7. His 4.7 last year was 29th for catchers.
At this point he's the most overrated player in baseball. And it's not even close.
1
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:00 am to therick711
quote:
Because you cherry picked two stats from what so far can only be described as an outlier year for Grandal.
Grandal before 2016- 118 wRC+
Grandal in 2016- 122 wRC+
The idea that it was a crazy outlier year has been debunked.
Molina was a great player. Borderline MVP candidate in his prime, but I fail to see what he does better than Grandal now. Grandal is the better hitter, framer, and he even threw out a higher percentage of runners last year. I'm sure Molina calls a great game, but I doubt it makes up for all of that. Molina has been more durable, but at 34 that may change soon too.
This post was edited on 3/15/17 at 10:02 am
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:01 am to 1ranter1
quote:
It truly blows my mind how this dude gets so much love.
His rating in the twighlight of his career is largely driven by intangibles such as leadership and handling his pitching staff. They are tough things to quantify and even if you could, they probably don't atrophy with age. So people can justify treating him like the half-a-decade ago Molina rather than the current iteration.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:06 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
Cards and Cubs fans are two peas in a pod
shut up
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:09 am to The Seaward
quote:
The idea that it was a crazy outlier year has been debunked.
Are you aggregating his pre-2016 numbers? What exactly is your methodology. Want to make sure I'm looking at the same data. His big stretches in the majors prior to 2016 were worse than his part time numbers last year.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:10 am to therick711
I took his whole career except for 2016.
This post was edited on 3/15/17 at 10:10 am
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:10 am to The Seaward
You're using one stat to show it's not an outlier. Like any baseball stat wrc+ is far from perfect. His career slg% was 409 before last year when it was .477. Career OPS was .760 and last year it was .816. The best ISO he had was .175, last year it was .249. Anyone looking at it objectively can see he had a career year last year
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:12 am to The Seaward
quote:
I took his whole career except for 2016.
All of his partial seasons in the majors, his time in the minors, what exactly? Prior to 2016, Grandal bounced between the minors and majors a bit.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:13 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
You're using one stat to show it's not an outlier. Like any baseball stat wrc+ is far from perfect. His career slg% was 409 before last year when it was .477. Career OPS was .760 and last year it was .816. The best ISO he had was .175, last year it was .249. Anyone looking at it objectively can see he had a career year last year
wRC+ is as perfect as an offensive stat gets. It encompasses everything with proper weights and then adjusts to park and league environment. His raw numbers were decidedly more impressive last year, but so was the whole leagues. Power numbers went through the roof across the league. Relative to league, Grandal has consistently been around 20% better than league average.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:13 am to barry
You're delusional insinuating I said anything other than what I said. I didn't claim Molina was the second best catcher in baseball nor is Molina a bad hitter. He's definitely no superstar on the offensive end but he's is not bad offensively. Let's not put words in my mouth... you're not that dumb.
This post was edited on 3/15/17 at 10:19 am
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:14 am to therick711
quote:
All of his partial seasons in the majors, his time in the minors, what exactly? Prior to 2016, Grandal bounced between the minors and majors a bit.
All major league at-bats from 2012 when he debuted through 2015.
Here is the link from Fangraphs.
This post was edited on 3/15/17 at 10:20 am
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:24 am to The Seaward
Thanks for sharing. That's a pretty cool tool.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:33 am to therick711
Yeah, the splits tool from Fangraphs is awesome. You can get really granular with it.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:40 am to The Seaward
I still don't think it's anything close to perfect, you can still find some weird abberations in it with how it values players. I'm really interested to see what Grandal does this year though because of how gifted he is. He kind of gets forgotten about on that team but could be huge for their chances this year.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:42 am to The Seaward
Salvador Perez is clearly the best catcher right now
Posted on 3/15/17 at 10:44 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Salvador Perez is clearly the best catcher right now
At swinging in pitches in the dirt or at running sub .300 OBPs.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 11:13 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
Also lol. Cards and Cubs fans are two peas in a pod
He definitely is not the best catcher in baseball right now. But he could very well be one of the top 2-3 offensive catchers in the game before the end of the season.
You guys going to win another Spring Training Championship this year? Yalls trophy case must be getting pretty full by now...
Posted on 3/15/17 at 11:41 am to The Seaward
quote:Yeah and even with that he's still clearly the best
At swinging in pitches in the dirt or at running sub .300 OBPs.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 11:53 am to VerlanderBEAST
Ur not even mentioning his best asset, his handling of pitchers.
i'll take .220 ba from a catcher, who can handle a staff, call his own game, and give you the intangibles behind the plate.
I'm not a huge fan of Molina, Larussa let him and the Pujols gang get away with murder, but the guy can wield a pitching staff to wins.
Cardinals have the Top prospect at Catcher, Carson Kelly waiting in the wings, but i'l take Molina handling of the staff over Kellys upside right now. At least while Molina can still do the job.
i'll take .220 ba from a catcher, who can handle a staff, call his own game, and give you the intangibles behind the plate.
I'm not a huge fan of Molina, Larussa let him and the Pujols gang get away with murder, but the guy can wield a pitching staff to wins.
Cardinals have the Top prospect at Catcher, Carson Kelly waiting in the wings, but i'l take Molina handling of the staff over Kellys upside right now. At least while Molina can still do the job.
Posted on 3/15/17 at 12:18 pm to stlslick
quote:
call his own game
Are there full time major league catchers that don't call their own game?
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