re: Red Sox sign Porcello to a 4 year extension

Age

All that being said you pay 20m for an ace not a #3

We most certainly overpaid.

Ben Buchanan over at Over the Monster explains it perfectly.

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It’s not a proprietary model that tells us grounders are good. In fact saying that grounders are "good" is misleading to some extent. Strikeouts are good. No walks is good. Ground balls are simply something that can be worked with in a way fly balls can’t be. The Red Sox cannot generally rely on pure fly ball pitchers (which is to say, pitchers who have fly balls as their defining characteristic rather than, say, strikeouts) because of Fenway Park. Where a team plays largely determines whether that route is or is not open to them.

The widely desirable quality of Rick Porcello is that he doesn’t walk batters. He’ll throw strikes, putting the onus on the batter to punish him for it and the defense behind him to protect him. The ground ball tendency is more of a secondary quality, but for pitchers who are low-K, low-BB, that secondary quality is magnified. For a team like the Tigers with terrible infielders, Rick Porcello is a good pitcher with a terrible fit. For the Red Sox, who have Pablo Sandoval, Dustin Pedroia, and Mike Napoli, he is a good pitcher with a good fit.

A pitcher like this is obviously not as desirable as the high-strikeout variety because of how much more work is required to let them shine. If you put Clayton Kershaw on a high school team against the Red Sox, he’s still Clayton effing Kershaw, and can take most of the load onto his own shoulders. If you put Rick Porcello on a high school team against the Red Sox, it’s not going to go well.

If we’re being idealistic and principled about things, then we might not want to pay Rick Porcello a whole bunch of money based on what the rest of Boston’s players can make him. You might say if he only contributes 60% of the equation he only deserves 60% of the money. But that’s not a practical way to approach this because Rick Porcello is not easy to replicate. If he’s only great for teams like the Red Sox, once he starts performing as well as the Red Sox expect him to, there are going to be teams out there who either think they can put him in that same position or that he can perform that well independent of the Red Sox infield. Think Cody Ross if you have to. Sure, maybe Arizona was stupid to give him what they gave him, but at the end of the day it’s a good fit the Red Sox don’t have anymore, and no amount of "I told you so" makes up for that lost production.

The Red Sox have already done the infield work. They’ve signed Pablo Sandoval for five years, they have Dustin Pedroia locked up, and if Mike Napoli will not last forever, the Red Sox just spent $62 million on a kid named Moncada who might be ready to take over third in a few years and push Sandoval to first if the situation calls for it. So now that means Porcello is worth to the Red Sox whatever level of pitcher he is in front of a good infield defense. And that’s a pretty damn high level.

This isn’t some wild experiment from the Red Sox. It’s not Theo Epstein going to OBP when everyone was looking at batting average and RBI (assuming the ignorance of the rest of the baseball world at the time for the sake of the comparison). It’s the Red Sox betting that—and hold onto your teacups here because this analogy is going to shite in a hurry—if rocks sink, and Rick Porcello is a rock, then if you throw him in water he’ll sink. They just hope they didn’t stumble across the one piece of pumice in the pile.

Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 6, 2015 | 7:47 PM up reply rec (16) flag

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You can't defend the money.. shite, the guy has a career ERA of 4.30

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He's a groundball pitcher that doesn't walk people. With Boston's elite defense, that is valuable.

The floor on this contract is scary, honestly if last year isn't at least the average of what he can do it'll be terrible. That being said, his production was so much better when the defense improved. Going from Detroit's abysmal defense to Boston's elite defense should help quite a bit in that regard.

I'm not sure how I feel about that extension. Porcello is only 26, but boy does he have a lot of mileage on that arm. But, then again he is a workhorse and will give you innings. The one thing I worry with him is he is really inconsistent.

damn...they paid a premium keeping that deal to only 4 years, which is pretty smart. Good for Rick though. Gets another big pay day at 30.

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I'd rather pay 20 mil on what might happen than 25 mil on what already happened and will probably not continue to happen (Lester).

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that's how baseball is these days. At least you know he has ace potential, and has pitched great in big games.


The Cubs didnt pay him hoping he could induce groundballs to an infield that might be good

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Still, I think a 15m-17m per year contract would've been more suitable for Porcello. He is young and is a workhorse. he'll give you a shitton of innings.

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still would have been too much based on his body of work

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but young pitchers (<30) who can stay healthy and give you innings is a rarity

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not $20mil rare. when your career ERA is 4.30

$20mil a year