re: Jimmy butler to Minnesota

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Wiggins shot like 46% and had 24 ppg in a season that was not very good for him

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But scoring is the only thing he does. His assist and rebounding totals are horrible for a wing player. He's a worse scoring, passing and rebounding version of Carmelo (even a young one).

And while he had the third highest PER on the team, he was 9th in WS/48, 12th in box plus minus, and 15th in VORP. ON HIS OWN 31 win team.

His PER is largely a function of usage though, with a 29 usage, he should have a PER of 20.4, his 16.5 is 3.9 points below the predicted value, and 319th out of 355 players who played more than 500 minutes.

In addition, out of the 355 players that played more than 500 minutes here are his rankings by the various metrics.

PER--94th
Real Plus Minus--234th (estimate since ESPN lists minutes per game)
WS/48--247th
Box Plus Minus--282nd
VORP--328

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I don't think you want to give up a guy like that on a rookie contract who is in his early 20s.

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VORP should track linearly with salary, and his VORP is worse than a replacement player, his value is worth league minimum (543,000), so he's getting paid (6,006,000), 11 times more than his value.

In other words, his rookie contract was actually a terrible value last season.

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What's with all the Wiggins hate? Dude is awaesome and rare as a two way player

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He's been far from awesome, and he's been far from a two-way player. In fact, he's hardly even a one way player--he's been an above average scorer and way below average everywhere else.

His defensive FG% is 49%, which puts him at about 382nd out of 482 players, and 3.3% worse than the team average (about 375th out of 482). And the 6.7 field goals made against him, is the 473rd out of 482 players (obviously minutes play a role).

Altogether, his defensive EFG% is 56.4% compared to the league average of 51.4%. In other words, he gave up 110 more points compared to the league average based on the 1116 shots defended.

His defensive real plus minus is (-3.16) was 460th in the league, his defensive box plus minus (-2.9) was 454th in the league, and his defensive rating (115) was 462nd in the league.

By every measure, Wiggins is one of the absolute worst defensive players in the league.

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And Portland, Utah, and Milwaukee were all playoff teams and younger.

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Minny top 3 players(KAT, Levine, Wigg) all played most of the season at 21yrs old


Utah featured 26yrd old Hayward, Gobert(24), George Hill (30), Favors (25) and veterans like Diaw and Joe Johnson


Portland Lillard (26) CJ (25) Plumlee (26) Nurkic (22)


graph looks off but like you said was from earlier in the year

Milwaukee was young but im not about to compare them to an east team

not saying Wiggins is great

but they had three 21 year olds play 37mpg. Not much more needs to be said other then their core players were prob the youngest in the league

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And Wiggins is arguably not even one of their top 5 or 6 players.

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He was 3rd on the team in PER. KAT was 1st. Levine was 5th. The guys in between were 26(Rubio) and Shabazz (24). They had 1 player over 30 on the roster. Again, young team

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they were really really really frickin young

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Young and dumb was who the Wolves were last year. I don't think Zach was ever going to grasp what Thibs was preaching on defense. Now he has a guy in Jimmy that knows exactly what he wants to do. Great trade for the Wolves.

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But not abnormally young.

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3rd youngest team according to this

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But LaVine only played 47 games so he was actually 5th in minutes behind Wiggins, Towns, Dieng, and Rubio (500 less than Rubio who was 4th).

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i was going off MPG. He was one of their key cogs, and losing him certainly didnt help their record even being as young as they were.

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Yes. Because he has such a high usage;

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PER measures efficiency, not usage or volume.

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i was going off MPG. He was one of their key cogs, and losing him certainly didnt help their record even being as young as they were.

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In the 44% of minutes he played, they had a net rating of -3.5. When he was off the court, they had a net rating of +0.8. So they were 4.3 points better when he was off the court per 100 possessions. In the 47 games he played, they were 16-31 (34%), they were 15-20 in the 35 games he didn't play (42.9%).

If anything, losing him helped their record.

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PER measures efficiency, not usage or volume.

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Usage is a major component of PER. I examined the players who had 500 minutes or more during the season, and over 50% (.71 correlation) of the variance in PER can be accounted for by the usage rate alone.

In other words, regressing usage on PER, and with a 29 usage rate, Wiggins had a predicted PER of 20.4, 3.9 points higher than his 16.5.

And I'm not the only one who has identified this relationship.
Fun With Stats: examining PER with usage rate and plus/minus

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but that it seems that in order to have a high PER, a player also needs to have a high usage rate.

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Now obviously with every relationship, the more extreme the predictor, the more extreme a regression to the mean, and thus, diminishing returns.

Diminishing Returns for Scoring - Usage vs. Efficiency

And I think the above article relates well to Wiggins since his efficiency is largely a function of his scoring, and nothing else.

You sure trying hard to come off as the Wiggins expert I'd bet you haven't seen him play even 5 games in his career.

i am way too stupid to understand any of that. You win, baw

C'mon man You've admitted to not even watching wiggins or the t-wolves end of discussion. If all your eveluations come from numbers you have no evaluation. Numbers are subjective without context and dependent upon many variables they tell about a 5th of the story if that. You're knocking a wing who shot over 48% lol that's insane. Plus you have guys like Dennis Rodman who've led the NBA in FG% you're gonna tell me he's an efficient offensive player or an offensive asset? The reality about Wiggins is he's an A++ athlete who is an advanced defensive player for his age he's 6-8 with an above avg wingspan super quick with great speed and his jump shot has developed 3 years faster than initially expected. He's outstanding running the wing on the break and while he isn't someone who's going to tie you in knots dribbling 10-15 time to get to the hole he has a quick first step and 2 bounce explosion. He's ahead of the curve for his age both offensively and defensively and will be a great weapon alongside Jimmy Butler. Compare Wiggins to the other wings in the past 4 years (Justice, Stanley Johnson, Ingram, Parker, Brown, McDermott) none of them are even within 2 levels of Wiggins except Parker who's had the advantage of playing for a solid team and hasn't had a big a sample size cause of the injuries.