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Started By
Message
Anyone else think that Hinkie may run the risk of devaluing his biggest assets?
Posted on 2/21/15 at 9:47 am
Posted on 2/21/15 at 9:47 am
Nerlens Noel PF/C
Joel Embiid C
Dario Saric SF/PF
Draft picks:
2015:
Their own 1st (owed to Boston, but protected 1 through 14 – if not conveyed their own 2015 and 2016 seconds go instead)
1st from L.A. Lakers, possibly (protected 1 through 5 in 2015, 1 through 3 in both 2016 and 2017, and unprotected in 2018)
1st from Miami (top 10 protected)
1st from Oklahoma City, probably (protected 1 through 18 in 2015, then 1 through 15 in both 2016 and 2017; if still not conveyed, OKC’s 2018 and 2019 second rounders go instead)
2nd from Golden State (unprotected)
2nd from Denver, probably (if Denver finish with a worse record than Minnesota, which they won’t, then Minnesota’s 2nd is conveyed instead)
2nd from Houston (unprotected)
2nd from New Orleans (unprotected)
2nd from Orlando (unprotected)
I think most people would say these are their biggest assets, especially after trading MCW.
So let's say they win the lottery and get the 1st pick -- are they then forced to pass on Jahlil Okafor to grab Emmanuel Mudiay? What if Mudiay goes before they pick and the two BPA are Okafor and Towns?
For hypothetical sake, let's say the 76ers end up with Okafor in the draft. They now have Noel, Embiid and Okafor. Obviously you try to trade one right? But can you even get fair value on one of those guys when teams know you're not going to be able to play them all?
I guess the flipside is, the Lakers end up with the 6th pick so it goes to the 76ers and their best case scenario is ending up with Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell.
He obviously has a plan and if everything goes right, they could end up being a great team. His plan just also has a very high bust probability as well.
Joel Embiid C
Dario Saric SF/PF
Draft picks:
2015:
Their own 1st (owed to Boston, but protected 1 through 14 – if not conveyed their own 2015 and 2016 seconds go instead)
1st from L.A. Lakers, possibly (protected 1 through 5 in 2015, 1 through 3 in both 2016 and 2017, and unprotected in 2018)
1st from Miami (top 10 protected)
1st from Oklahoma City, probably (protected 1 through 18 in 2015, then 1 through 15 in both 2016 and 2017; if still not conveyed, OKC’s 2018 and 2019 second rounders go instead)
2nd from Golden State (unprotected)
2nd from Denver, probably (if Denver finish with a worse record than Minnesota, which they won’t, then Minnesota’s 2nd is conveyed instead)
2nd from Houston (unprotected)
2nd from New Orleans (unprotected)
2nd from Orlando (unprotected)
I think most people would say these are their biggest assets, especially after trading MCW.
So let's say they win the lottery and get the 1st pick -- are they then forced to pass on Jahlil Okafor to grab Emmanuel Mudiay? What if Mudiay goes before they pick and the two BPA are Okafor and Towns?
For hypothetical sake, let's say the 76ers end up with Okafor in the draft. They now have Noel, Embiid and Okafor. Obviously you try to trade one right? But can you even get fair value on one of those guys when teams know you're not going to be able to play them all?
I guess the flipside is, the Lakers end up with the 6th pick so it goes to the 76ers and their best case scenario is ending up with Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell.
He obviously has a plan and if everything goes right, they could end up being a great team. His plan just also has a very high bust probability as well.
6
Posted on 2/21/15 at 9:51 am to hendersonshands
They could always trade back if they needed to
Posted on 2/21/15 at 9:55 am to hendersonshands
quote:
Obviously you try to trade one right? But can you even get fair value on one of those guys when teams know you're not going to be able to play them all?
that's the problem with how they're going about this strategy. acquiring a bunch of young guys then dealing them before they really develop, or more young guys is just creating a cycle
houston let some guys develop (and got harden)
OKC let their guys (including harden) develop
you got to also factor in how much their brand has been tarnished, and how this will affect free agency
Posted on 2/21/15 at 9:57 am to RTR America
I guess but it's not like the NFL where you can trade back from 1 to 15 and get a great player still. They could always draft Okafor for someone else, you're right, but was this whole year worth it to end up with just a guy who's going number 6 in an average draft?
Posted on 2/21/15 at 9:59 am to hendersonshands
Hinkie is swinging for the fences, if okafor is his number one guy he's going to take him. Having him and embiid doubles your chances of having a game changing center. As much as I like noel, he's more of a potential star role player than true star player.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:01 am to SlowFlowPro
Right, if they do end up with a 3rd big man, how does development even work. Embiid isn't playing this year so they end up with Embiid and Okafor both trying to play in the NBA for the first time, matching up with Nerlens Noel at PF who isn't a great offensive player. What is reasonable to expect out of those guys?
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:02 am to floridatigah
quote:
As much as I like noel, he's more of a potential star role player than true star player.
the devaluation continues
every year it seems that the new "next big thing" will get hyped and hinkie's draft misses will be pushed aside like noel is
then revisionist history will commence and everyone will claim they really didn't think the devalued young player was that good
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:03 am to floridatigah
quote:
Having him and embiid doubles your chances of having a game changing center. As much as I like noel, he's more of a potential star role player than true star player.
But having him and Embiid would probably devalue one, if not both. Both guys are going to need to play a lot and neither are power forwards, unless I'm mistaken. How far in do you decide which is your player of the future and then what can you unload the other for?
Let's say Embiid ends up being a top-10 center, but every other asset flopped and they're stuck with just Embiid, a bunch of scrubs and role players, and cap space -- do you think it was worth it?
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:04 am to floridatigah
quote:
Hinkie is swinging for the fences
and this is wrong
if he were, he'd be acquiring legit NBA talent and not future mid-1st round picks. when is he going to do this?
until he takes that risk, i don't see it as "swinging for the fences". he's being really conservative and kicking the can down teh road
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:05 am to SlowFlowPro
Jrue Holiday being hurt so often now that he's in NOLA kind of softens the blow on that one but yeah you're right. He was a genius for getting Noel (even though I always thought he'd be a good defensive player with no offensive game) and now it seems like the shine has worn off of him.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:06 am to SlowFlowPro
I never heard anyone saying he was going to be an all around franchise cornerstone. He's a legitimately awesome defensive player already but I don't think he ever averages more than 10-12 points per game, which is how most had him pegged.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:09 am to hendersonshands
Noel almost had a triple double (pts, rebs, & blocks) last night along with 4 or 5 steals. I think he has a bright future as defensive stopper, but needs to develop other parts of his game massively.
I think missing on Wiggins and Parker set back their rebuild plan.
I think missing on Wiggins and Parker set back their rebuild plan.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:10 am to floridatigah
quote:
I never heard anyone saying he was going to be an all around franchise cornerstone.
tons of analysts were pushing him into the stratosphere b/c of his college metrics (i think some were better than ADs)
my pellies were CRUSHED for dealing the rights to noel for a vastly superior (and young, reasonably-priced) player
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:11 am to RTR America
quote:
Noel almost had a triple double (pts, rebs, & blocks) last night along with 4 or 5 steals. I think he has a bright future as defensive stopper, but needs to develop other parts of his game massively.
Yeah, he's a very good defensive player.
quote:
I think missing on Wiggins and Parker set back their rebuild plan.
That's the risk you run with this, though. You put all your eggs into the draft and most years, the draft will frick you without even taking you to dinner first. The Thunder got lucky with their draft picks. It became sexy to make your team terrible and to get superstars in the draft, but it's really not realistic.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:12 am to SlowFlowPro
Meaning he wants one of these top picks to be a Davis/Kyrie/wiggins/etc type hit. If he thinks okafor could be in that class and say mudiay isn't, he's not going to draft mudiay just because he had embiid already.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:12 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
my pellies were CRUSHED for dealing the rights to noel for a vastly superior (and young, reasonably-priced) player
Which is stupid because he doesn't fit next to AD anyway.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:13 am to hendersonshands
I don't see anything wrong with them just playing all their bigs together for a few years while they figure out which ones they wanna keep. It's not like each of them necessarily needs 40 minutes a night to develop and you can still get them all a bunch of minutes by going big and playing them together. Their spacing will be terrible and it will be hard to win, but they won't care about that for a few years anyway. And there's a big enough market for talented big men that I don't think they'll be forced to accept 50 cents on the dollar whenever they do decide to trade one of them.
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:14 am to RTR America
quote:
Noel almost had a triple double (pts, rebs, & blocks) last night along with 4 or 5 steals. I think he has a bright future as defensive stopper, but needs to develop other parts of his game massively.
noel has not lived up to his hype. this is his 3rd year out of HS and this is when you start to typically see a player's arc form
his offense has not come around at all yet and he doesn't look like he's a rim protector-rebounder just yet
he's obviously the odd man out if okafor is picked, which means the 76ers get...what for him? likely another mid-first round pick that may become a lotto pick in 3-5 years? so what was the point?
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:15 am to floridatigah
Davis, Kyrie, Wiggins all got to play the rookie years and learn on the job. Their franchises were all in right away with them. If you get Okafor -- now you have Embiid and Okafor, two guys playing the same position, and you're not sure which one of them is the cornerstone yet. Don't you think that could hinder development?
Posted on 2/21/15 at 10:17 am to hendersonshands
quote:
That's the risk you run with this, though. You put all your eggs into the draft and most years, the draft will frick you without even taking you to dinner first.
We don't know if that one did though. We haven't seen Saric or Embiid play yet.
Everything I've seen and read about Saric is super impressive. Apparently the metric's guys loved him (I think Pelton had him #1 in the draft).
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