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re: 4th and 15: The NFL Live Crew is as Dumb as Mike Smith
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:59 am to bbap
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:59 am to bbap
quote:Sure, but that's a very unlikely scenario IMO. We could probably dream up a scenario where the Saints get 4 1st downs and ATL can get the ball back with :20 left, but I'm thinking in more realistic terms.
what if it took all of 2 plays to get 2 first down. it would be 2-3 which is exactly what i said
The Saints are probably running on 1st down. If they get 10+, they're almost certainly running on the next 1st down. Odds of back to back 10+ yard plays when ATL knows they are most likely running and will sell out on the run? Super slim, not that realistic of an option to raelly consider it IMO.
And keeping in line with the premise I was going for, 2 1st downs gets NO near the 50, and with one of the best punters, even if ATL gets the ball back, it's probably at the 10 or so yard line, more reason not to kick the FG there.
This post was edited on 11/22/13 at 12:01 pm
0
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:04 pm to shel311
quote:
Probably more than once in the last few years.
When i looked at his stats, I only found 3 passing TDs in his career. Hard to find out if any ended with a running score. But he's had 23 GW drives in his career. Sorry but I put no faith in Matt Ryan under current management to score a gw TD. I'm a falcon's fan, FWIW.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:15 pm to C
So the saint's last drive was 8 plays btw. 2 1st downs.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 1:32 pm to shel311
quote:
And if they don't get a first down?
Then you start the drive 20-30 yards further back EASILY worth the opportunity to keep the ball back on the onside kick
quote:
and if they dont get a first down? Does it mean anything then? What if the saints picked up 1 first down on a big gain. Then the falcons stop them. But at that point the Saints are in FG range and can extend it to 4 again. We get it you think it was a MORONIC call. I'm not saying i would have necessarily kicked the field goal myself, but you really suck at trying to prove your point.
I don't think its a moronic call it IS a moronic call.
The moral of the story is the Possession>>>>>>>>>Field position
This post was edited on 11/22/13 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 11/22/13 at 1:46 pm to emmanuellewis
It was a terrible position for the Falcons one way or the other. The odds were stacked against them regardless of what they did. The decision was a tossup. Either decision can be justified rationally. It's just a matter of going with your gut at the moment. I would have gone for the field goal there as well, personally.
But to act as if only one decision can be considered "right" is an exemplification of the OP being a simpleton who is embracing a false dichotomy of right and wrong in a situation that is predicated on poor odds and chance either way.
But to act as if only one decision can be considered "right" is an exemplification of the OP being a simpleton who is embracing a false dichotomy of right and wrong in a situation that is predicated on poor odds and chance either way.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 2:38 pm to ChewyDante
what i don't get is why Sean Payton called a TO after the sack?
Posted on 11/22/13 at 2:40 pm to emmanuellewis
nah you kick the field goal and try for the on sides.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 3:34 pm to lsufan251875
quote:
That is reason enough to try and leave the game in their hands.
You really want to give Drew Brees the ball with time and the game on the line?
Posted on 11/22/13 at 3:58 pm to ChewyDante
I love how people on here emphatically throw out their opinions, as if it's a "no brainer" and you "never" do this or that, and it was the "worst decision ever." Like you said, there's arguments for both. I was surprised at the FG, but the more I think about it, it probably was the slightly better choice. But there's still a decent argument to the contrary.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 4:18 am to LSUJuice
the best part is people talking about an onsides kick which was clearly never going to happen.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 7:48 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:Which shows how dumb he is, if your are going to tard out and kick the FG you absolutely need to onside kick.
the best part is people talking about an onsides kick which was clearly never going to happen.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 7:54 am to LSUJuice
quote:
there's arguments for both. I was surprised at the FG, but the more I think about it, it probably was the slightly better choice. But there's still a decent argument to the contrary.
But there isn't a good argument one choice gives you an immensely greater chance of winning
This post was edited on 11/23/13 at 7:55 am
Posted on 11/23/13 at 10:01 am to Brettesaurus Rex
quote:
I agreed with the kick.
So did I. To call it a terrible decision or the worst of the season is pretty fricking stupid.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 10:04 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Which shows how dumb he is, if your are going to tard out and kick the FG you absolutely need to onside kick.
Huh??? Didn't Atlanta still have three timeouts plus the two minute warning to work with? There was no reason for an onsides kick and I am certain Mike Smith was not planning to call one.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 10:14 am to Rex
quote:
Huh??? Didn't Atlanta still have three timeouts plus the two minute warning to work with? There was no reason for an onsides kick and I am certain Mike Smith was not planning to call one.
They would still have those timeouts and 2 minute warning after the onside kick. The potential to get the ball back is worth more than 25 yards of field position.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 10:24 am to VerlanderBEAST
Naa it was probably 35 yds of field position. With the saints guarding against the onside kick they would have no return. So the starting position would go from the falcons 45 to the saints 20.
Eta: I don't know if either choice would be a bad call. You can always 2nd guess but I don't know if one is demonstrably worse than the others on its face. Mike smith may trust his team to execute one over the other.
Eta: I don't know if either choice would be a bad call. You can always 2nd guess but I don't know if one is demonstrably worse than the others on its face. Mike smith may trust his team to execute one over the other.
This post was edited on 11/23/13 at 10:27 am
Posted on 11/23/13 at 11:19 am to C
quote:Still worth the opportunity to get the ball back
Naa it was probably 35 yds of field position
quote:You are going to have to execute offensively no matter what.
Mike smith may trust his team to execute one over the other.
This post was edited on 11/23/13 at 11:22 am
Posted on 11/23/13 at 11:50 am to VerlanderBEAST
Moving the ball into fg range has been no problem for the falcons all year.
Posted on 11/23/13 at 12:05 pm to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Which shows how dumb he is, if your are going to tard out and kick the FG you absolutely need to onside kick.
There was 2:25 left on the clock, and they had 3 timeouts..
Posted on 11/25/13 at 11:55 am to afatgreekcat
Not that this "proves" anything, but I would like to point out that Mike Smith's decision was called the worst coaching decision of the week in Bill Barnwell's weekly coaching column:
LINK
quote:
To keep things simple, you're weighing two sides here. Side 1 is the probability that you will succeed on fourth-and-15 and then drive from the Saints' 20-yard line to score a game-winning touchdown with your four chances to stop the clock along the way. Not a fun option. But compare that to Side 2, where you'll need to hit a 52-yard field goal, stop Drew Brees from picking up one first down (or attempt an expected onside kick yourself, which has even worse odds), grab a punt, and then drive however many yards you need again to set yourself up for another field goal, this time to win the game. If you're the Jets, maybe Side 2 beats out Side 1. Maybe. If you're the Falcons? There's just no way. A 52-yard field goal is hard enough as it is, and sure enough, Bryant stopped Smith's plan in its tracks.
LINK
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