- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: 4th and 15: The NFL Live Crew is as Dumb as Mike Smith
Posted on 11/22/13 at 10:11 am to emmanuellewis
Posted on 11/22/13 at 10:11 am to emmanuellewis
quote:
There is no way you can kick there and hope to get an onside kick (likely < 10% chance) or a stop AND drive to FG range again.
first off, it's ridiculous to say they would even try an onside kick
secondly, there was a decent chance at a stop…in fact, I'd say much greater than 8%…probably more like 25-35% with 4 chances to stop the clock.
and would you rather have the ball with 30 seconds left needing a touchdown or 30 seconds left needing just 3 points?
the play is only questionable because atlanta's season is a dumpster fire…just go for it because it doesn't even matter anymore
This post was edited on 11/22/13 at 10:12 am
3
Posted on 11/22/13 at 10:46 am to lsufan251875
quote:
Statistically, a 4th and 15 is similar to an onside kick, about a 20% success rate.
I can't think making a 52 yard field goal, getting the saints to go 3 and out, then driving down for another field goal would yield a higher percentage.
quote:You don't know that at all. 3 timeouts and the 2 minute warning, zero chance the saints just run 3 straight times, unless they're gaining good yardage.
You know the Saints are just going to run it and force TOs, so stop them.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 10:49 am to Captain Ron
quote:That's why you go for it
and they had 3 TOs and 2:30 left on the clock.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 10:55 am to LSUzealot
quote:That's like me simplifying it and saying would you rather try a 50 yard field goal, stop, then another field goal or just scoring a TD lol.
and would you rather have the ball with 30 seconds left needing a touchdown or 30 seconds left needing just 3 points?
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:13 am to LSUzealot
quote:
first off, it's ridiculous to say they would even try an onside kick
Not going for an onside kick would be even more moronic. Field position doesn't mean shite If they get a first down or 2 the games over This post was edited on 11/22/13 at 11:16 am
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:20 am to emmanuellewis
quote:
On the other hand, with the 4th and 15 you have a shot at the first down, which would put you in the red zone. You still have to score the TD and the odds of picking up 4th and 15 are against you, but I'd argue it is significantly higher than either of the two above scenarios. PLUS... even if you don't pick the 1st down up, the game isn't over. You are basically in the same situation as scenario two in terms of field position. The difference is you need a TD instead of a FG. I'd like to see the counter argument, but I can't see how this was anything other than a terrible decision.
I love how you put odds on everything but this option.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:20 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:And if they don't get a first down?
Field position doesn't mean shite If they get a first down or 2 the games over
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:21 am to VerlanderBEAST
field position does mean shite when a FG wouldve won the game. they wouldve kicked deep. some of u guys lack of strategy is appalling
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:37 am to LSUzealot
quote:
first off, it's ridiculous to say they would even try an onside kick
Which is why I didn't say it. I CLEARLY provided two scenarios if they tried the FG (these were identified with a '1' and a '2' next to them).
quote:
secondly, there was a decent chance at a stop…in fact, I'd say much greater than 8%…probably more like 25-35% with 4 chances to stop the clock.
I never said this option was 8%. Again, I said, pretty clearly, that this was the percentage of getting an expected onside kick ONLY (i.e., does not account for hitting the first FG, driving back into FG range, and hitting another FG).
quote:
and would you rather have the ball with 30 seconds left needing a touchdown or 30 seconds left needing just 3 points?
A ridiculous simplification. In this crazy world you are proposing where I get to dictate how the scenarios play out, I'd rather score the TD on 4th and 15, force a fumble on the kickoff, score another TD, then switch records with the Saints while time is frozen.
quote:
the play is only questionable because atlanta's season is a dumpster fire…just go for it because it doesn't even matter anymore
No it is a bad play because of the situation. Mike Smith gave his team a lower probability to win.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:41 am to sgallo3
How often has matt ryan drove down the field for a game winning TD? Mike Smith knows his QB. He knows he has trouble putting it in the endzone. He can move the length of the field but the last step is a big one. And a 50 yd FG in a dome is not that difficult. That was only Matt Bryants 2nd miss from 50 yds in his 5 years in atl (10/12). The falcons defense did a pretty good job all night. It wasn't great but good enough to put some faith in them to make a stop. I don't think the falcons onside kick if they would have made the FG. Maybe, but it wouldn't have been necessary. Also being down just 1 pt gives you a lot of options. If the saints are putting a drive together you can just let them score a td and you are still within 8 pts. Sell out on the run adn short passes. If you get beat deep, so be it.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:46 am to castorinho
quote:
I love how you put odds on everything but this option
I love how you didn't actually debate anything I said, but took one section and made an incorrect statement about it.
I didn't put odds on scenario 2 either (Falcons hit FG, get a 3 and out, drive down field, kick a FG).
I was actually hoping someone might estimate at the odds of the given situations. Instead, it is a lot of people saying "No, he made the right call." I'd love to see one person explain how trying the FG there improved the Falcons chances of winning. IMO, it has nothing to do with them being 2-7; Mike Smith lowered their odds of winning the game with the decision to kick a FG. I think he did so by a significant margin.* I'm open to evidence that counters this.
*Disclaimer: This does not mean the Falcons were going to win if they went for it. All three scenarios had below average probabilities of a Falcons win. Going for it on 4th and 15 was the best chance of those scenarios by a wide margin. Again, I'm happy for someone to show evidence otherwise. Like you pointed out, I don't know each probability, but would be interested in seeing them if someone else has an estimate.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:46 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Not going for an onside kick would be even more moronic. Field position doesn't mean shite If they get a first down or 2 the games over
and if they dont get a first down? Does it mean anything then? What if the saints picked up 1 first down on a big gain. Then the falcons stop them. But at that point the Saints are in FG range and can extend it to 4 again. We get it you think it was a MORONIC call. I'm not saying i would have necessarily kicked the field goal myself, but you really suck at trying to prove your point.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:46 am to C
quote:Not really, only 1 legit option.
Also being down just 1 pt gives you a lot of options.
quote:How often does that happen? And the Saints can counter that by taking a knee, game over. It had nothing to do with whether the Saints would drive or not, it was whether the Saints would make 1 first down.
If the saints are putting a drive together you can just let them score a td and you are still within 8 pts
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:50 am to shel311
quote:
it was whether the Saints would make 1 first down.
naw with 4 clock stops they would probably need 3 first downs (perhaps 2 if they got both on 3rd down and all plays were runs/completed passes in bounds...i.e. ideal plays for saints).
This post was edited on 11/22/13 at 11:51 am
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:51 am to shel311
quote:
it was whether the Saints would make 1 first down.
There was more than 2 minutes left, 3 timeouts and 1 2-minute warning. Saints, as they experienced in still giving the ball back to the falcons, weren't icing the game with a single 1st down.
quote:
Not really, only 1 legit option.
quote:
How often does that happen?
I think GB did it a few years ago.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:52 am to shel311
quote:
How often does that happen?
How often has Matt Ryan scored a game winning TD?
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:53 am to bbap
quote:I'll concede on possibly 2, but no way 3 lol.
naw with 4 clock stops they would probably need 3 first downs (perhaps 2 if they got both on 3rd down and all plays were runs/completed passes in bounds...i.e. ideal plays for saints
Even with 2, the Falcons are then looking at getting the ball back with less than minute and no timeouts, and probably starting a drive inside their own 20 or around there.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:54 am to C
quote:Like I said, not really a legit option.
I think GB did it a few years ago
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:54 am to C
quote:Probably more than once in the last few years.
How often has Matt Ryan scored a game winning TD?
Posted on 11/22/13 at 11:55 am to shel311
quote:
I'll concede on possibly 2, but no way 3 lol.
what if it took all of 2 plays to get 2 first down. it would be 2-3 which is exactly what i said.
Page 3 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News