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Message
When will the oil bust hit real estate in Texas' big cities.
Posted on 3/28/16 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 3/28/16 at 7:30 pm
Whats with that, over here in houston,I've been waiting and waiting for foreclosures to pile up and opportunity to arise with this big drop in oil but im honestly not seeing anything in the good areas for cheap, everything is still listing at record highs. Obviously properties are now sitting for months vs selling overnight 2 years ago, but still whats up with the market. Are people just not facing reality and lowering prices or what? Do you think we will see a big price reduction. FWIW Im looking constantly inside the loop I want to grab something prime in memorial,west u,montrose,river oaks area. Are the suburbs getting hit but not inside the loop? I mean commercial properties are literally asking 3.75%-5% cap rates for prime stuff like chick fil-a,walgreens,etc. The residential side is still asking insane levels as well.
The market has definitely cooled down, but when will it turn into a buyers market if ever. Does this possibly have to do with everyone refinancing and financing at insanely cheap rates over the last few years and not having to just cut and run now? Im just lost bc oil has been down since late 2014 and all you hear is about how houston is going to get ugly, well its been almost 18 months and its still not ugly.
The market has definitely cooled down, but when will it turn into a buyers market if ever. Does this possibly have to do with everyone refinancing and financing at insanely cheap rates over the last few years and not having to just cut and run now? Im just lost bc oil has been down since late 2014 and all you hear is about how houston is going to get ugly, well its been almost 18 months and its still not ugly.
7
Posted on 3/28/16 at 7:49 pm to dabigfella
Just went to Austin a few days ago and there is absolutely zero sign of any slowdown. I hear Dallas is doing well also.
Posted on 3/28/16 at 7:53 pm to Paul Allen
Well Austin has the tech scene so thats expected, but everyone I know was looking for a big correction in houston with all the layoffs looming from oil, but the opposite has happened. Its not that prices have risen, its just that listings are still going up at all time highs and nobody is budging. Homes are still selling but at a much slower pace, but still its got me still confused bc I've been eager to add something for a while now and I was thinking there would be steals everywhere
Posted on 3/28/16 at 9:06 pm to dabigfella
The Houston market was incredibly under developed before the drop in prices. There wasn't anywhere near enough inventory, so there hasn't been as far to fall. Also Houston is much more diversified than in has been in previous crashes.
You won't find anything cheap in the areas you listed
You won't find anything cheap in the areas you listed
Posted on 3/28/16 at 9:07 pm to barry
Barry I already own a home there, but I was planning on adding either something commercial or a couple cheaper rental homes but yes you are correct, houston is still incredibly cheap compared to most other major markets.
Posted on 3/28/16 at 9:17 pm to dabigfella
You're not the only one wondering how long these prices can hold up. I've been hunting for an investment property inside the loop for the past 18 months. You're correct that people aren't really budging, I figured there would be many more desperate sellers at this point.
Posted on 3/28/16 at 9:38 pm to Frugal
Housing in the woodlands has seen a fall of about 10-20% from 2014, IMO. But it rose about 30-40% in the 5 years prior. I imagine most have decent equity built up. I'm looking to buy a bigger home so following pretty closely the past 6 months. I'm holding off till late summer when reality sets in for those looking to move.
Posted on 3/28/16 at 9:43 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Just went to Austin a few days ago and there is absolutely zero sign of any slowdown. I hear Dallas is doing well also.
We were rent/house purchase exploring in both the last few months.
We were in Austin this weekend as well to scope it out and secure our rental.
Our rent is
Posted on 3/28/16 at 9:55 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
Austin and Dallas are just fine, Houston will see the worst of the 3.
there is a 1 mile strip in north Plano(DFW) where Toyota, Liberty Mutual, Fannie Mae, FedEx and others are building corporate offices. they said over 15,000 people will be working in that one area within 2 years that arent there today.
State farm just relocated 4000 people to the new richardson office. buddy is a real estate agent in DFW, he said if a new home is on the market more than a week then something is wrong with it.
he said some Toyota employees relocating from California have already bought houses and are paying mortgages for homes they wont even live in for another 8-10 months, just to get the home they want because they arent lasting more than a day of two
we sold our house in Frisco in 2014 and it sold in 2 hours. 3 bids first day, took 5k over asking
there is a 1 mile strip in north Plano(DFW) where Toyota, Liberty Mutual, Fannie Mae, FedEx and others are building corporate offices. they said over 15,000 people will be working in that one area within 2 years that arent there today.
State farm just relocated 4000 people to the new richardson office. buddy is a real estate agent in DFW, he said if a new home is on the market more than a week then something is wrong with it.
he said some Toyota employees relocating from California have already bought houses and are paying mortgages for homes they wont even live in for another 8-10 months, just to get the home they want because they arent lasting more than a day of two
we sold our house in Frisco in 2014 and it sold in 2 hours. 3 bids first day, took 5k over asking
This post was edited on 3/28/16 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 3/28/16 at 10:00 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
Houston will see the worst of the 3.
A shame, I prefer Houston over Dallas.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 12:07 am to dabigfella
I don't think you're ever going to find any significant deals inside the loop, certainly not in the neighborhoods you name. There are too many diversified buyers these days. The suburbs that have exploded in the past decade may not fare as well.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 12:34 am to GaryMyMan
Yeah, the only "deals" you'll see inside the loop are the $10 million homes dropping to $6.5 million.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 7:14 am to Golfer
Fort Worth hasn't slowed at all.
Landmen, etc are scrambling, but the big oil guys are just shifting gears like they do in any downturn. Acquiring sideline assets as quickly as they can.
Landmen, etc are scrambling, but the big oil guys are just shifting gears like they do in any downturn. Acquiring sideline assets as quickly as they can.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 7:27 am to Panny Crickets
Golfer, Im looking for something expensive but not in the $6.5 range. In 2009 during the great recession a family friend bought a house in memorial for $1.9 that was 9500 sq ft on a 45000 sq ft lot, thats probably $5M+ today. It wasn't even a foreclosure or anything, I just assumed we'd dip a little, homes like that are not even dipping period they're all still $4M+ and whats even more just bare land in those inner loop areas is insane still people want $2.7M for an acre in memorial today or $4.5M for .7 acres in river oaks, none of it is selling, but its what they're asking. I was just curious if maybe these west U homes the standard 3500 sq ft on a 5000 sq ft lot which in the last 3-4 years ran from say $850,000 to $1.3M come back down to earth a little and they havent. I have a regular house in West U and my neighbors house/lot is for sale, its a 1930s house thats unlivable and they want $800,000 for the 5700 sq ft lot basically. Id love to buy it but those homes were $500k not that long ago.
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 7:30 am
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:05 am to C
quote:
Housing in the woodlands has seen a fall of about 10-20% from 2014
One of my fears, since I bought it 2014
. But, I have heard that houses 300k and under are still selling (although not nearly as quickly as before). It's the stuff over that which is sitting on the market. There are 3 houses around me that have been on the market for a good while. I'm hoping that if I get in a bind and need to sell, the fact that my house is ~100k less than those will be beneficial. 
Posted on 3/29/16 at 10:31 am to dabigfella
quote:
Whats with that, over here in houston,I've been waiting and waiting for foreclosures to pile up and opportunity to arise with this big drop in o
Yeah you and everyone else. I wouldn't expect prices to fall too much when you have so many sharks looking to buy
Posted on 3/29/16 at 11:29 am to dabigfella
Just because there is a downturn and people are being laid off doesn't mean that money and buyers will evaporate. Inside the loop is more desirable than ever. I live in the Heights and at least 3 of the residents on my street are retirees from the oil industry that sold their home in the suburbs and moved in to town. To add to that, the end of our street had a house listed for $1.5mil that slowly dropped to $1.2mil over several months on the market. A foreign family came in and bought it, sight unseen, for the $1.2mil asking price and took 5 months to move in to it...the point is, there's still plenty of money from all different sources buying up high end homes inside the loop.
Where you'll see the biggest effects of the downturn will be in the suburbs and with low occupancy in the crazy amount of office space and apartments that are/were being built.
Just to add...Houston's GDP is roughly 10% O&G mining as opposed to close to 25% in the mid 80's. The Houston economy is much more diversified than people seem to think.
Where you'll see the biggest effects of the downturn will be in the suburbs and with low occupancy in the crazy amount of office space and apartments that are/were being built.
Just to add...Houston's GDP is roughly 10% O&G mining as opposed to close to 25% in the mid 80's. The Houston economy is much more diversified than people seem to think.
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 11:37 am
Posted on 3/29/16 at 11:42 am to TheChosenOne
Those are all valid points but the reality is listings are still going up at incredibly high levels and listings are stagnating, so there just aren't as many buyers at these levels anymore. Homes in my area that literally sold overnight 2 years ago are sitting up to 6 months now before they just pull them. So is the market still overpriced? A good friend of mine is a big realtor in town and said if a listing doesnt sell in 2 weeks its overpriced. He actually told me he's having to turn down listings bc people are just unrealistic these days about asking prices and he has no desire to waste time doing showings and investing in marketing properties at levels people want to sell for. So I'd say its overpriced but nobody seems desperate which is really odd bc even those 10% you mention thats what 200,00+ people in a city like houston? None of those guys that were laid off are inside the loop?
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 11:51 am
Posted on 3/29/16 at 11:57 am to dabigfella
Texas is in much better shape than the 80s, but it's still early in the down cycle. Austin and Dallas aren't going to slow down. Houston is slowing down, but it's still out performing many peer cities across the US. Small cities with high energy concentration will suffer the biggest economic burden.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 2:13 pm to dabigfella
Census Data
"Four Texas metro areas together added more people last year than any state in the country except for Texas as a whole, according to new U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released today. The population in these four metro areas increased by more than 400,000 people from July 1, 2014, to July 1, 2015.
The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro areas added about 159,000 and 145,000 residents, respectively — the largest gains of any metro areas in the nation. Two additional Texas metro areas adjacent to each other — Austin-Round Rock and San Antonio-New Braunfels — were each also among the 16 nationwide to gain 50,000 or more people over the period.
These four Texas metro areas collectively added about 412,000 people. Texas as a whole gained about 490,000."
Texas metropolitan areas are growing at staggering pace. The housing may have temporarily slowed due to oil bust, but all of these new citizens have to live somewhere.
"Four Texas metro areas together added more people last year than any state in the country except for Texas as a whole, according to new U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released today. The population in these four metro areas increased by more than 400,000 people from July 1, 2014, to July 1, 2015.
The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro areas added about 159,000 and 145,000 residents, respectively — the largest gains of any metro areas in the nation. Two additional Texas metro areas adjacent to each other — Austin-Round Rock and San Antonio-New Braunfels — were each also among the 16 nationwide to gain 50,000 or more people over the period.
These four Texas metro areas collectively added about 412,000 people. Texas as a whole gained about 490,000."
Texas metropolitan areas are growing at staggering pace. The housing may have temporarily slowed due to oil bust, but all of these new citizens have to live somewhere.
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