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re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale oil well sets record (for TMS) - 1540

Posted on 6/2/14 at 9:48 am to
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52147 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 9:48 am to
quote:

HK up 14% today
Damn it. Got me all excited until I saw the date of the post
Posted by redstick13
Lower Saxony
Member since Feb 2007
38495 posts
Posted on 12/27/14 at 7:35 pm to
How's things going in the TMS these days?
Posted by Bayou Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
3658 posts
Posted on 12/27/14 at 7:53 pm to
Here's a look at the stock performance of the main publicly-traded TMS players over the last six months, sorted by approximate net acreage in the TMS:

Halcon (HK): Down 73% to 1.88
Goodrich (GDP): Down 82% to 4.88
Encana (ECA): Down 43% to 13.70
Sanchez (SN): Down 75% to 9.40
Comstock (CRK): Down 76% to 6.82
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7128 posts
Posted on 12/27/14 at 8:21 pm to
Looks like a buying opportunity
Posted by Bayou Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
3658 posts
Posted on 12/27/14 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

Looks like a buying opportunity
If the breakeven oil price in the TMS is north of $80/bbl, that's being generous.

More like a gambling opportunity
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 4/17/15 at 9:55 am to
Reports of a new king of the TMS out there. I believe its an EnCana well southeast of Liberty MS

Longleaf 29-h2
This post was edited on 4/17/15 at 10:07 am
Posted by NBR_Exile
Houston via Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2012
949 posts
Posted on 4/17/15 at 2:04 pm to
We own land just east of Centreville, Maybe we're about to get paid

Posted by TheIndulger
Member since Sep 2011
19239 posts
Posted on 4/17/15 at 4:50 pm to
Posted by eng08
Member since Jan 2013
5997 posts
Posted on 4/17/15 at 8:03 pm to
Good I got a bunch of HK
Posted by TigerV
Member since Feb 2007
2505 posts
Posted on 4/17/15 at 9:33 pm to
probably best to stay away from TMS players. Stick to the Permian and EGFD players.
Posted by eng08
Member since Jan 2013
5997 posts
Posted on 4/18/15 at 8:20 pm to
Well I bought it a year ago so I'm kind of just sitting on it..
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 7:50 am to
quote:



Good I got a bunch of HK




Prayers sent.
Posted by eng08
Member since Jan 2013
5997 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 9:29 am to
Yeah I know...
Posted by RGV AG
Managua, Nicaragua
Member since Mar 2013
34 posts
Posted on 4/22/15 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

The EnCana Lawson 25-13H-1 began producing on March 18, 2015. The well has the longest later in the TMS at 9,800 foot. It was fracked with 29 stages.

This well was drilled north from the same pad as the south drilled Lawson 25H-1 in downtown Gillsburg.

The Mississippi Oil and Gas Board performed a 24 hour flow back test on April 1, 2015 (no fooling), the 15th day of flow back.

Using a 15/64 choke the production was 1,294 barrels of oil for this test day.

The production had not peaked at this point and rumors are that the 30 day production was likely in excess of 35,000 barrels.

Peak production was around 1,400 barrels of oil based on a Goodrich Petroleum presentation on April 20 that rated this well as having the 2nd highest 24 hour production of any well in the TMS. Specifically, the presentation listed this well as having 1,600 boe. Boe is barrels of oil equivalent, meaning gas production is included. I estimate the barrels of oil would have been in excess of 1,400
Posted by lsugradman
Member since Sep 2003
8545 posts
Posted on 4/22/15 at 10:54 pm to
quote:

The well has the longest lateral in the TMS at 9,800 foot. It was fracked with 29 stages.



Good lord. I would hope they could get over 1k bopd with a completion interval that long w those many stages. How much did that well cost?
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:49 am to
I don't know the cost but I would guess they'll never make their money back in this price environment.
Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8274 posts
Posted on 4/23/15 at 10:04 am to
Looked at some cumulative production numbers on all the Mississippi TMS wells the other day and I believe that none of them will come close to some of the EUR's being thrown around by the operators. The best wells have made in the range of 185-190K bbls in close to two years time and are down to 1,000 barrels a month give or take. I'm not sure that would work at $100 oil.

Posted by RGV AG
Managua, Nicaragua
Member since Mar 2013
34 posts
Posted on 4/23/15 at 12:51 pm to
Tiger Dog:

Thanks for the info, I have oft wondered about the numbers myself, as I know very little about it I have been curious as to where the operators get those numbers.

A few of the wells are still holding above 1500 barrels per month, but to get some of the EUR's that are being thrown around they would have to average 3600 or so barrels a month for 15 years. I have always wondered what the life expectancy of these wells is? Any info would be appreciated.
Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8274 posts
Posted on 4/23/15 at 1:01 pm to
MS OGB TMS Data

Try this out and peruse it for a while. It's never been a secret that the TMS is a tricky zone to drill in that area anyhow but these numbers really make somebody wonder how it will ever work.

Posted by RGV AG
Managua, Nicaragua
Member since Mar 2013
34 posts
Posted on 4/23/15 at 3:24 pm to
TigerDog:

Yes sir, I look at that every month. We have acreage in several wells permitted, and two that are now being fracked. That is the gist of my curiosity.

When I look at the MSOGB data I also take a pause in the sense that unless these wells last between 15-20 years I do not believe they will reach the EUR projections either. Now, what GDP/ECA/HK and others have listed as their EUR's also includes gas, but the TMS is mostly oil with not all that much gas.

Many of the wells, especially Halcon's, are very poor. I know very, very little about the O&G business, but when I run some brief numbers I figure that in order for the TMS to reasonably viable oil has to be about $80 or above and the well costs have to come down to around no more than $9mm per well.

The TMS has a very low land cost and lower royalty burdens compared to some of the other areas. So there is that slight positive. But unless the wells are repeatably good, better than the most of the last 10-12 I don't see there being long term viability in the TMS given the oil prices.
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