re: Tesla - Buy or Sell?

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Tesla would have been dead years ago if they hadn't received $450 Million in federal aid.

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Loans are aid? And a loan paid off in half the time as agreed, at that.

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Tesla has lost $750 Million since its inception

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Is that all? In 10 years? I would have expected more.

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The first electric car was in 1912 and the first hybrid came along in 1917. They were popular with women because driving an electric car required no cranking to start the engine. When electric starters came along, women abandoned electric.... The issues with electric cars is battery efficiency and replacement costs of batteries. Add a lacking of any real charger infrastructure and long waits for recharging, and you can see these too as reasons for electric car failure. The US Navy has spent billions of dollars since WWII desperately trying to find a state-of-the-art breakthrough in battery efficiency and they have come up a loser.

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Well, luckily, battery tech has improved quite a bit in the last 100 years. Energy density has improved drastically, and continues to do so in part thanks to Tesla. Battery costs continue to drop as well. We will soon, if we haven't already, cross the point where total cost of ownership of electric vehicles will be lower than gas or diesel vehicles. As for charging infrastructure, I have already mentioned that Tesla is already building it out. I mean, we already have electricity everywhere... the additional infrastructure needed is minimal and cheap and fast to implement. Battery swap stations are similarly easy to build out, and can be faster than refilling a gas tank. Although, neither is required for 90+% of the miles we put on our cars. I agree that the infrastructure is needed for real mainstream adoption, but I don't think getting to that point will take very long, nor will it be very expensive.

But, I know none of this matters to you. You seem to be able to perfectly value a company, even while ignoring future prospects, products, plans, direction, market shifts, technological advances, and a host of other signs that indicate where the future of the industry is headed, and that point to one company in particular leading the way.

I will bookmark this thread, too, and I'll be sure to come back to eat my crow if TSLA is in the tank next year.

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Short the living shite out of this.

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Well, I thought it would take a year to double, but it only took 3 months. I sincerely hope you didn't act on your own advice.

I will bump again next May, no matter how high or low it is at that point.

the aftermarket for this stock was unreal today.

guy at work has about 70% of his portfolio in tesla right now and is making a fortune

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?? Electric motors, batteries, and cars are all 100+ year old technologies. Tesla is making money where others don't or can't because it is managed very well, they squeeze every bit of potential out of technology, and their production methods are constantly optimized.

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and the foreign markets are more capable and more willing to support such vehicles. They're into China now, gateway to a lot of other markets. They're not going anywhere.

ETA: and Buffett owns stock in electric cars, just not this company.

Yeah, the Tesla car has left the charging station.

It's time to sell, not buy.

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Not in the niche market they cater to

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Key phrase. Smaller, lighter vehicles with smaller, more efficient gas and diesel engines is where the vast majority of the market is headed. Battery tech has a looonnnng way to go to make them practical for the general populace.

TSLA is a sell.

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Not in the niche market they cater to, and they have Toyota and AMG/Benz backing them. Their reach into the foreign markets has more potential than GM (and GM is all we're talking about really).

And GM's electrics are crap, same bare minimum, corner-cutting bullshite they've been at for 100 years.

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It's a niche market. That's the operative word. Absolutely nothing is stopping competitors from entering such a market, and battery techonlogy is moving incredibly fast now.

Massive competitors like Toyota, VW, Ford and GM will build cars in this niche segement that Tesla exposed. Those companies are simply better, more competitive and have much deeper R&D resources than Tesla, thus much better equipped to stay ahead of the curve in rapidly changing battery techonlogy..

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And GM's electrics are crap, same bare minimum, corner-cutting bullshite they've been at for 100 years

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The Volt has outsold the Leaf last year LINK , and the battery costs of those cars are going down industry wide, driving a decrease in price for all electric vehicles. GM (and Nissan) are also introducing several new electric cars within the next 12 months, and anticpates the next generation Volt to undercut the existing model in price significantly. LINK

GM is far from the only big shark circling Tesla's lunch either. Nissan, VW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and BMW are all investing in plug in hybrids and alternative fuels as well as high mileage diesel vehicles. All of those companies are better equipped to develop this rapidly changing technolgy than Tesla.

The niche market you are talking about is getting more crowded by the second. I think Tesla's rapid rise is nearing its end and its appeal as a short term investment is gone.

I would buy a Tesla car, but I would sell their stock now if I had any.

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It's a niche market. That's the operative word. Absolutely nothing is stopping competitors from entering such a market, and battery techonlogy is moving incredibly fast now.

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Their current development is a joke compared to Tesla. They're still operating on the faulty assumption that people get them just to be socially-conscious, and producing the same underpowered crap as a result. Also, Tesla is miles ahead in the interior interface and overall tech-centered nature of their appeal. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they blew everyone away and partnered or were acquired by Apple or someone similar. GM's only forthcoming product that competes in the same market is the electric Cadillac. Good luck affording that if you complain about Tesla prices.

Anyway, with Toyota and Benz backing them, I don't see them falling behind in the development department. And the fact that they have turned a profit for the quarter despite having paid the govt. back over 3 years instead of the scheduled 13, speaks to their future earning potential. Their sales have far from "hit the wall" as they have only begun to tap foreign markets like China, Korea etc.

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GM is far from the only big shark circling Tesla's lunch either. Nissan, VW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and BMW are all investing in plug in hybrids and alternative fuels as well as high mileage diesel vehicles. All of those companies are better equipped to develop this rapidly changing technolgy than Tesla.

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Simply being electric is not competitive. The Leaf and Volt have been a failure, for the most part. Tesla offers ungodly performance and off-the-wall style and cool factors. The others just want you to be a good citizen and think green. Not nearly good enough. The Tesla is the first electric car that people want because it's "cool" or "modern," not to make Al Gore happy.

We'll see. I got in at $52 after my brother and his GF (got in at $23), but I'm in for the long haul. Major product placements in entertainment are on the way, and as most Americans seem unaware of their capabilities, that should be a huge marketing critical mass for them.

I was debating between adding to my position in V or starting a position in TSLA a few weeks ago.

TSLA is up 21% since then
V is up 1.7%

I chose V.

Luckily, I'm very long on V. But it would have been nice to make a few quick bucks on TSLA and jump out.

Oh well.