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re: Tesla - Buy or Sell?
Posted on 8/26/13 at 2:26 pm to kennypowers816
Posted on 8/26/13 at 2:26 pm to kennypowers816
A take on Tesla:
LINK
LINK
quote:
Shares of Tesla Motors are now overextended, Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital said Monday.....
this is complete bubble territory in terms of their valuation .
1
Posted on 8/26/13 at 2:46 pm to dewster
quote:
dewster
We get it, you think TSLA is overvalued. No need to post the opinion of a guy who seems more concerned with selling books than investing.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 10:36 am to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Vols&Shaft83
You haven't posted in a few weeks... are you banned? Curious to see your thoughts on Tesla now. Honestly, no bullshite.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 10:46 am to Korkstand
I have noticed vols and Bigfella have been missing. What's the deal?
Posted on 9/20/13 at 10:50 am to LSUTOM07
I told my roommate yesterday that I should have bought tesla in like may when I thought about it 
Posted on 9/21/13 at 9:10 am to jimbeam
Interesting read: Putting Tesla Motor's Gargantuan Battery Supply Problem Into Perspective
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Even if Tesla could lock up 100% the world's lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity, it could only build a few hundred thousand cars a year. There is absolutely no chance that Tesla can accomplish that feat of monopolistic magic because:
quote:
•All of the idle plants were designed to produce cells using specific chemistries that can't be changed to suit Tesla's requirements without significant refurbishing;
quote:
•Most of the idle plants were designed to manufacture large-format automotive grade cells instead of small-format consumer grade 18650 cells;
quote:
•All of the companies that own idle plants are actively seeking alternative markets for their products that don't have the price sensitivity of automotive; and
quote:
•Several other industries, like portable electronics, that need lithium-ion batteries are willing to pay higher prices because it's easier to pass a nickel per watt-hour through to a customer that needs 10 to 50 watt-hours than it is to pass the same nickel per watt-hour through to a customer who needs 85,000 watt-hours.
This post was edited on 9/21/13 at 9:50 am
Posted on 9/21/13 at 12:47 pm to Spawn
Seeking alpha really has shitty reporting. It's like bleacher report for investors.
Posted on 9/21/13 at 6:53 pm to C
Posted on 9/21/13 at 11:58 pm to League Champs
quote:
Uh, Tesla sees the coming storm
Tesla worries about battery supply
Is Tesla's battery running out of charge
Tesla Model S could use all the world's laptop batteries
Could battery shortage stall electric cars sales?
To think that Musk hasn't considered this issue really discredits the man. I look forward to whatever solution he dreams up. Cheers to innovation.
Posted on 9/22/13 at 2:33 am to League Champs
quote:
League Champs
One of the articles you linked tries to make the argument that a new type of battery (one that can store 5-10x as much as li-ion, and be cheaper to manufacture) could somehow spell trouble for Tesla. How could a new technology that lowers costs and massively extends the range of their cars possibly be a problem?!
As for the supposed li-ion shortage looming, I'll believe it when I see it. Tesla will sell around 20k cars this year, and at 7k cells apiece, that is in the neighborhood of 150million cells. By comparison, the laptop industry consumed well in excess of a billion cells. Why do these people think the industry won't be able to keep up with demand? Didn't production scale gracefully with the laptop market? How about the explosion of the smartphone market?
If there is a shortage, it will be short-lived. Shortages happen all the time in the tech world, and the temporary price increases are rarely noticed by the end consumers. As long as there is money to be made, production will keep up with demand as it always has. The shortage and corresponding price increase will be a tiny blip on the chart of ever-falling prices.
TL;DR: The supposed battery shortage is a non-issue. The industry has seen extreme demand growth in the past. This is nothing new, and has been foreseen and planned for.
Posted on 9/23/13 at 11:32 am to Tigah in the ATL
quote:
There may be electric car companies one day. Only time will tell if Tesla is one of them.
And there will be big competition from BMW and the like. I think that plug-in cars are here to stay and a lot of us will be buying them in the next 10 years. What's much less clear is if Tesla will be good at doing so. I say do not invest in this type of stuff.
Posted on 11/10/13 at 8:40 am to HortensePowdermaker
thinking about pulling the trigger on some TSLA on Monday after its recent downturn. Any thoughts on it rebounding?
Posted on 11/10/13 at 3:05 pm to baytiger
quote:
thinking about pulling the trigger on some TSLA on Monday after its recent downturn. Any thoughts on it rebounding?
Musk has already admitted that they are caught in a battery shortage for at least a year
The safety board is now investigating the recent fires. A recall could be devastating
And the next fire will half the current stock price
My advice is no
Posted on 11/10/13 at 11:41 pm to League Champs
quote:
Musk has already admitted that they are caught in a battery shortage for at least a year
Would you stop spreading this FUD? A new deal has already been struck with Panasonic, there is no shortage.
If you aren't an oil industry shill, then you shorted TSLA earlier this year like an idiot. You must be pretty worried about your retirement to keep spewing the same tired garbage over and over, regardless of how silly it makes you look.
Posted on 11/11/13 at 10:38 am to Korkstand
quote:
Would you stop spreading this FUD? A new deal has already been struck with Panasonic, there is no shortage.
Are you just dumb, or stupid?
Tesla shares hit by battery shortage
I'm not the one saying it, the OWNER of Tesla said it!!!
quote:
Elon Musk said the shortage is likely to continue until next year when a new deal with supplier Panasonic starts.
quote:
Those concerns were prompted after Mr Musk said the firm had been struggling to ramp up production.
"We really are production-constrained, not demand-constrained," Mr Musk had told reporters after the earnings release.
quote:
some analysts said the model continues to remain popular with customers and the firm is likely to see further growth in sales once it can resolve its production issues.
Good Lord, son, no one will take you seriously if you cant accept facts when presented
Posted on 11/11/13 at 1:37 pm to League Champs
You think that there is some looming worldwide battery shortage. The reality is that Tesla sold more cars than anticipated when the deal was made years ago, and also they have been able to ramp up production faster than the estimates from years ago. So they have gone through more batteries than their contracts had allotted them. And a new deal has already been made that will supply them with more batteries starting next year. There is no shortage for "at least a year". It's not like the Tesla plant is shut down waiting on batteries.
Posted on 11/11/13 at 4:54 pm to Korkstand
quote:
The reality is that Tesla sold more cars than anticipated
Wrong, again. They knew exactly how many were expected, but had to divert some to Europe due to a waiting list created by lack of BATTERIES
quote:
The company announced after the market closed Tuesday that it sold about 5,500 Model S sedans in the quarter, a record. But Tesla failed to rev the engines of some analysts who were looking for more. Barclays had predicted the company would deliver 5,820 cars.
Do I also need to remind you that selling DOES NOT mean building and delivering. They cannot deliver the 5500 they have already sold!! Look for yourself here
LINK
quote:
CEO Elon Musk on Tuesday blamed a shortage of lithium-ion battery cells for trouble meeting demand for Tesla's lone vehicle, the Model S. There won't be any relief until next year, when a deal to get more batteries from supplier Panasonic kicks in, he said.
Some potential buyers in North America were left out as cars were diverted to Europe for sale to customers on a waiting list there, Musk said on a conference call
LINK
Posted on 11/11/13 at 5:37 pm to League Champs
quote:
They cannot deliver the 5500 they have already sold!! Look for yourself here
LINK
What am I looking at on the Tesla site? Don't tell me you think that because the Signature series is sold out that it means there's a shortage.
It was a limited series that they only built 1000 of, on purpose. quote:
There won't be any relief until next year
How many times do I have to say that "next year" does not mean "at least a year" as you have stated? Next year starts in less than 2 months.
And that is beside the fact that they still have batteries and cars are still being built.
Posted on 11/11/13 at 10:04 pm to Korkstand
You make me sad. Again, from the owner of Tesla
Leaving no batteries for cell phones, laptops, etc
quote:
While I hate to say "I told you so," CNBC recently aired an extraordinary video clip from an interview with Tesla Motors' CEO Elon Musk who described the cell manufacturing process in some detail and then went on to explain that all the lithium-ion battery production capacity in the world could only support a few hundred thousand cars a year.
Leaving no batteries for cell phones, laptops, etc
Posted on 11/11/13 at 11:15 pm to League Champs
quote:
You make me sad. Again, from the owner of Tesla
You keep quoting Musk on the negative things as if they are the word of god, yet you don't believe a goddamned word he says about anything positive. On top of that, you keep quoting things out of context and intentionally misrepresenting their meaning.
No fricking shite that today's cell production could only support a few hundred thousand cars. Why would any battery producers make more batteries than they could sell? They wouldn't, you don't want batteries sitting on the shelf. Why would they have more capacity than required to produce the amount of batteries they can sell? They wouldn't, what's the point of unused capital? Obviously, Tesla is giving them good reason to increase capacity, and they are doing just that. In 2010, Panasonic could only produce 100,000 automotive cells per month. Today they can make 2 million cells per month. That's how quickly capacity can be ramped up.
If, for some reason, you think production capacity might be able to keep up but raw material supply will be a problem, well that's not the case either. Lithium is plentiful and infinitely recyclable.
Please stop taking quotes out of context and using them to build some fake case as to why Tesla will fail.
Please stop rooting for an American company to fail in the first place, especially one which could help usher in a new era of American innovation.
Like I told you, go ahead and buy to cover your short position and take your losses. You will sleep better knowing your nightmare is over.
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