Self-driving cars -- untapped $2 trillion industry?

I guess it depends on how you look at it. I think it's inevitable, but who wins? I think if google or Uber tech ends up in the cars, they surely win. They don't profit in automotives right now in this way. However I don't know how traditional car makers win. If they make better automated cars they will gain market share, but I think automated cars means less cars on the road over time, as you gain efficiency.

So yes, like everything else, some will win and some will lose, but I don't know how long automated cars will be a "separate" industry until it IS the industry

I'm pretty sure you would be able to assume manual control at any time. Hazardous conditions, weather, or maybe you just want to drive.

Meh, before "technology" we spent 16 hours a day just trying to survive. This continued through the agricultural era. It wasnt until the last 150 years that anybody got any free time. I imagine people didn't bitch when they could start mindlessly drone off while collecting crops

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note, Elon Musk thinks there is an eventual moral imperative to have human driving effectively outlawed. H

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Now I'm gonna have Red Barchetta by Rush stuck in my head all day.

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On a moral/philosophical/ethical/etc. note, Elon Musk thinks there is an eventual moral imperative to have human driving effectively outlawed.

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He is probably right, at least for day to day activities. We would be so much better off as a society if no human drove. We would be able to get from point a to point b faster, and much safer, likely using significantly less energy.

But everyone is going to not want driverless cars.

First off, local municipalities will not want to lose the fat cash stream associated with traffic violations. Car companies are not going to want it, b.c they are not going to be the ones selling them. Plus, the eventual model would be a pool model for vehicles, i.e. rent time on a car. This is going to mean much fewer cars being sold and serviced.

Oil companies are going to hate it b.c these will likely be electric vehicles.

Not to mention other companies that draft off auto - insurance, tires, service, parts, driving schools, AAA.

Once driverless cars take over (2030-2040), its going to completely revolutionize society.

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Why would humans be more adept at handling this than a rational machine with a 360 degree view and a split second reaction time unencumbered by the elements?

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Just curious, the cars cameras can overcome intense rain or fog?

I believe, with the way the topology of the US is right now, we would see some type of hybrid car that is able to be put in manual mode.

No other way around it really.

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police

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They will hate the lack of tickets!!

Collect and Serve!

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A lot of them could be in cities, but barring a breakthrough in battery technology, which seems illusive, I have a hard time believing that will be the case for longer distances, especially when you consider the fuel efficiencies gained.

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But how much of car usage is for longer distances? And honestly a pool model for cars would work much better than what we do now, people will just have to learn to adjust to a different way of interacting. But the biggest hurdle getting the vehicle will be taken care of!

The model I see happening is like a subscription service which provides so much time of car usage per time period, plus the ability to buy extra/sell your time. You might have a regular vehicle you use, but others are going to use it too. You might also be able to rent a different vehicle for longer distances, which uses gas or is a hybrid.

Reality is that our cars sit unused most of the time. Its a pretty expensive asset to not full leverage. You already see sharing exploding in cities, its just going to make more and more sense.

We have had two friends go down to one car in the last 2 years, and just use the car sharing service when they need a 2nd car.

I've been pondering how to invest in this for a long time, because I think its coming. Dealing with Houston traffic day in and out has lead me to realize that humans are terribly inefficient drivers. I'm pretty sure on a per ton basis, a loaded freight train accelerate faster than an equivalent length of cars. We don't need more roadways in America, we need to use them more efficiently. I think we'll see it on congested city freeways first. Phillip K Dick was right again