re: Metals, silver in particular, getting crushed.

Drill down in to JPM's short position on the COT. You need to make an educated guess, but it should be at least 24,000 short contracts given the open interest, and where JPM appears in the COT. So they're short about 12MM oz, and the total in Comex warehouses I last knew was about 182MM oz. What's not clear is out of the 182MM oz, what is allocated, and has a defacto lien on it. Otherwise pledged.

Then drill through this backing out their non proprietary accounts.

LINK

H = House account. S = Stopped.

I come to no other conclusion, given their concentrated short (some say it is now the largest in history in one single commodity) than they are driving the price down, and taking delivery for as cheap as possible.

You could go further about silver production the last five years etc, but suffice it to say, I like the fundamentals, and it sure looks like JPM does as well. At least at some point in the future. Again, based on reading some threads on here, I speculate I'm a smidge more patient watching things develop than some others might be.

I'm a buyer. Notwithstanding that it might go down to $12. Doesn't matter, because I see more upside, and I'm not smart enough to know when events lead to a silver run. Fanly I see more upside due to demand and usage. I think if had had people demand delivery in a run up, and shorts couldn't produce, and there is no way they can produce based on Comex warehouse inventory and open interest, there would be a cash settlement. So the entire JPM factor is only one small part of my thinking on silver. Which Warren Buffet doesn't like. Except he bought it. And then lied to his shareholders about it. But then released a statement which kinda sorta backed out of the lie. Anyway.

I've picked up a decent amount of pre-65 circulated US coinage lately both for myself and for several friends who know I've got a low-margin connection. The coin collector in me can't help but go through them for key dates. I've found several 32-D and S quarters, nice condition and dates of Standing Liberty Quarters and Walking Liberty Halves (pre-33), several semi-key dates in the Mercury Dime series (no 41/42 or 16-D ). A few Barber pieces to that were worth keeping. A really nice '07-O dime for one, I couldn't believe that one.

tl/dr: The high water mark of silver prices has flushed a bunch of formerly numismatic coins into the bullion market. Keep your eyes open.

I think you'll find some helpful threads in the guide at the top of the page.

Kitco and Jim Bullion ring a bell, but I'm not as well versed as the other guys in PMs.

ETA: also apmex and even Ebay
LINK /

Wasn't there talk around 3 years ago of JPM being caught upside down on a huge short bet on silver? That was around the time the reserve limits were being increased.

IIRC, they had to take Lehman's positions. I think they were upside down. Out of trust is probably more accurate. At least with respect to new regulations that basically said banks couldn't be blind short, they could only hedge their positions. Later it was interpreted they could hedge what they held. Later also hedge for customers. It is never really clear in JP's case if they are blind because I think they are either the custodian for SLV. It all sits in Comex warehouses, and when it is audited, wh is to know what is assigned to who? JPM keeps some in London as well.

Again, I'm not saying there is a conspiracy. It does appear JPM plays around a bit though. They had a lot of physical possession about five years ago as well. Sold a lot. And only recently started to acquire again.

The CFTC looked in to all of this and it never really went anywhere. IIRC, the oil run up (caused by speculators, and not supply demand fundamentals) triggered a lot of the inquiries.

Yes, I believe they are supposed to hold the silver that backs SLV. I think I remember the story as they were caught in a bad short so the CME or Fed (whoever is in charge of that) began raising margin requirements forcing people to sell thus driving the price down so JPM could unwind their bets.

Rosa Abrantes-Metz

I did well trading palladium futures way back in 1997/1998.

Not what I'd do. I'd go long calls today. I'd go short on a rebound. I'd use properly priced options. Probably on something like GLD, and likely not on a leveraged note or fund.

You could short a short. Although I'm told that is very expensive. But I have and would do this given the correct set up.

LINK