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GNC as a value stock investment

Posted on 10/2/16 at 3:26 pm
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
36763 posts
Posted on 10/2/16 at 3:26 pm
I'm new to this whole value stock picking thing and need some feedback on my choice and indicators.

I know that I should probably be picking an index fund and dumping my money away but quite frankly that's not what excites me about the stock market as that strategy doesn't need much discussion.

Market Cap is 1.4Billion
Enterprise value 2.9 billion

So that indicates a possible underpriced security

P/E 7.51
also indicates it's trading below.

I like the brand name recognition as well.

It doesn't seem like a very complicated business on the surface. They do whole sale, retail and online business selling workout and dietary supplements.

Dividend had an uptick this year as well which would all be a bonus for this stock to me as well sine I think it's price could increase greatly over the next years.

What else am I missing?
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12770 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 7:35 am to
gnc seems exactly like the type of company that amazon (or some other online nutrition stores) will kill off.
Posted by saderade
America's City
Member since Jul 2005
25741 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 8:03 am to
Agreed, a brick and mortar store selling overpriced supplements doesn't give me much optimism long term. I know they are doing some online stuff but it probably isn't enough.
Posted by Delacroix
Member since Oct 2008
3987 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 8:34 am to
quote:

gnc seems exactly like the type of company that amazon (or some other online nutrition stores) will kill off.


this. I dont see GNC surviving another 5 years
Posted by AUtigR24
Happy Hour
Member since Apr 2011
19755 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 7:23 pm to
Market space is too crowded. There are new supplement companies popping up every day. And like others said the brick and mortar locations will soon be gone
Posted by knowingabyss
Vermont
Member since Aug 2016
2700 posts
Posted on 10/3/16 at 8:06 pm to
How GNC is still in business is beyond me.
Posted by AU4real35
Member since Jan 2014
16065 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 5:31 am to
quote:

How GNC is still in business is beyond me.
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12770 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 8:22 am to
I'm shocked too that they are still in business. Their prices are higher than anywhere else.

GNC is a carbon copy of radio shack
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 9:59 am
Posted by baseballmind1212
Missouri City
Member since Feb 2011
3259 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 8:49 am to
as an avid amateur bodybuilder i can assure you GNC's market share will dwindle over the next 5-10 years. google bodybuilding.com. It is essentially GNC with a greater selection of brand names and cheaper pricing. They also have more bulk buying options and offer great sales.

I used to live in GNC in high school.now, I haven't stepped foot in one in probably 3 or 4 years. This is a common theme among the serious workout community
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
36763 posts
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:48 pm to
thanks everyone for the insight. I need to widen my view and really consider the market and the business more.

When I really think about it I haven't even seen a GNC outside of an empty shopping mall in a long time and hadn't heard anything about them at all.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:26 am to
P/E can be a good screen for value stocks, but isn't as complete as an EV-based metric such as EV/EBITDA. That's because a highly levered company could be cheap on a price basis but expensive on an enterprise value basis. Of course, if the company has only recently levered up and the benefits of said leverage are expected to be substantial, a stock priced cheaply on a P/E basis could see substantial returns on equity. The flip side, of course, is that the heavy debt could magnify losses as well.

If you're going to use P/E, at least cross-check against an EV-based metric and keep credit quality in mind before making any investment.

Consider:

Company A has $10 in equity and $90 in debt with $2 in net income and $4 in EBITDA

This company trades at a P/E of only 5 (20% earnings yield), but an EV/EBITDA of 25 (4% EBITDA yield). Is it cheap or expensive?

The answer is that it appears cheap on a P/E basis, but this could be due to the fact the company has significant debt such that the market has concerns about its viability. Were you acquiring the entire firm (equity and assumption of debt), you may assume it was expensive on the basis of EV/EBITDA.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
51910 posts
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:32 am to
You might be better off buying VTV, and letting it ride.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
75219 posts
Posted on 10/6/16 at 8:10 am to
GNC was hip in the late 90's and early 2000's with the advent of Hydroxycut and Xenadrine.
Posted by Jp1LSU
Fiji
Member since Oct 2005
2542 posts
Posted on 10/10/16 at 9:07 am to
Aside from anything to do with the financials of GNC, I just don't see the company around in 4-10 years. Maybe as a MLM. As others have said the rent space is too high and the products can be found anywhere. GNC may find some niche to evolve into something but I don't see it. Maybe medical/recreational marijuana? For me there is nothing attractive about this company at any price.
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