Effect of Obamacare on doctor salaries?
will doctors' pay go up or down?
Many variables. e.g., To what extent will ObamaCare actually be enacted? Which portions will remain? Which portions won't?
Short answer: MD pay will probably fall off in most cases.
It's a complicated question though.
To be factual, albeit perhaps controversial, the intent of ObamaCare is to drive patients out of private insurance and into government controlled co-opts. Effort in these instances will be to run MD reimbursement through the floor. However, equilibrium usually develops between radical social goals and pragmatism (i.e., who's going to go into medicine if compensation sucks).
So in the long run it's hard to predict the extent of the effect on MD pay. We aren't currently far off many European models in terms of MD pay anyway. So that might also limit the push downward. Nonetheless, risks are there.