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re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 10/27/15 at 8:41 am to b-rab2
Posted on 10/27/15 at 8:41 am to b-rab2
Over reaction to warmer weather. At some point going long natty gas is going to be a good long term speculative play.
I'm not quite sure when and how yet, but I watched the predictable reaction yesterday with interest.
I'm not quite sure when and how yet, but I watched the predictable reaction yesterday with interest.
1
Posted on 10/27/15 at 1:19 pm to Iowa Golfer
Market chatter is that all of these north to south projects (Marcellus to Gulf Coast) are early in the sense that they are bringing in supply for demand (LNG) that hasn't really materialized yet. A mild winter would be a disaster for prices.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 6:57 pm to sneakytiger
frickin UGAZ is killing me
Posted on 10/27/15 at 9:28 pm to white perch
Long natty gas eventually. Sub 2 cash today if I'm not mistaken. A whole bunch of other fundamentals involved though.
I think I'll buy UNG outright to some extent, and probably options on forward contracts.
I don't think yet. I don't know exactly when.
So a buy and forget it in the best non deteriorating vehicle I can find when I pull the trigger.
Same as I did for brent crude. Can't time the exact bottom, but I always endeavor to buy as low as possible, and sell the inverse.
Frankly it's simple. It's becoming impatient and undisciplined that is the danger.
I think I'll buy UNG outright to some extent, and probably options on forward contracts.
I don't think yet. I don't know exactly when.
So a buy and forget it in the best non deteriorating vehicle I can find when I pull the trigger.
Same as I did for brent crude. Can't time the exact bottom, but I always endeavor to buy as low as possible, and sell the inverse.
Frankly it's simple. It's becoming impatient and undisciplined that is the danger.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 6:42 pm to Iowa Golfer
Hey, Hey, it's starting to start. No less than two analysts starting to think about going long natural gas. Then Credit Suisse. ALthough anything they say I'm inclined to do the opposite of, but I actually think they're serious here.
Still don't know when, but it seems to be getting closer.
Still don't know when, but it seems to be getting closer.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 9:41 pm to Iowa Golfer
Wish I had listened to myself months ago and waited out october. Cash at the hub is trading less than 2 dollars. Marcellus production is trading less than a buck. We need a strong, long winter. Any good winter projections from the weather services?
Posted on 11/3/15 at 4:39 am to sneakytiger
First Energy Financial is a decent source of this type of forecast.
Posted on 12/7/15 at 11:28 am to Iowa Golfer
Damn, UGAZ is trading at near pre reverse split levels already
Posted on 12/7/15 at 12:16 pm to white perch
Energy down bigtime
Posted on 12/7/15 at 2:13 pm to jimbeam
Painful. Not shocking, but still painful.
Posted on 12/7/15 at 3:13 pm to Grits N Shrimp
Purchased puts of USO on Friday and sold this afternoon for 35% gain. 
Posted on 12/7/15 at 3:15 pm to sneakytiger
quote:
We need a strong, long winter. Any good winter projections from the weather services?
Unless it's the next ice age weather isn't going to have a substantive affect on nat gas prices....there's simply too much coming out of the NE.
Posted on 12/15/15 at 6:12 pm to cwill
Lowest settlement today since 1999. At some point, and I have no idea when, this thing is going to be a good buy.
Trying to hash through the analysts, who are almost exclusively reactionary rather than proactive, seems to be almost worthless.
Believe it or not, every once in a while on CSPAN they have a panel on oil/natural gas, and I tend to be able to follow that better than some guy at some brokerage firm whose predictions for lower oil and gas came after the fact.
Trying to hash through the analysts, who are almost exclusively reactionary rather than proactive, seems to be almost worthless.
Believe it or not, every once in a while on CSPAN they have a panel on oil/natural gas, and I tend to be able to follow that better than some guy at some brokerage firm whose predictions for lower oil and gas came after the fact.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 8:52 am to Iowa Golfer
Bought UGAZ yesterday and sold this morning for a 2.9% gain
Posted on 5/17/16 at 9:41 am to white perch
Nice bump 
Is the UNG etf affected by contango?
Not the 3x leveraged one, the regular one.
Is the UNG etf affected by contango?
Not the 3x leveraged one, the regular one.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 3:59 pm to bayoubengals88
Would be subject to some extent to both contango and backwardation. Here is what they hold:
LINK
Without typing a novel, and based on the above holdings, they are obviously more stable with respect to tracking actual price as compared to one of the 2X or 3X instruments. The credit risk would be significantly less here as well. It's not a note. And the roll, and roll date are always mitigated as it holds the prompt month.
The next most stable in my opinion would be UNL becuase it would track a 12 mos rolling strip.
I've always maintained ETN's as opposed to ETF's are for traders, as are all the levered instruments. But I'm pretty conservative.
LINK
Without typing a novel, and based on the above holdings, they are obviously more stable with respect to tracking actual price as compared to one of the 2X or 3X instruments. The credit risk would be significantly less here as well. It's not a note. And the roll, and roll date are always mitigated as it holds the prompt month.
The next most stable in my opinion would be UNL becuase it would track a 12 mos rolling strip.
I've always maintained ETN's as opposed to ETF's are for traders, as are all the levered instruments. But I'm pretty conservative.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 12:44 pm to Iowa Golfer
I've been crushed by reverse splits.........still holding 100 shares though after the reverses........my gains have been reduced to a net of 3500 from 35000.....
One day I will tell the story about how I was going to retire in 3 years with ETFs after making 50K in one year to losing 38k in 3 months on the 2015 crash of oil and gas
I wouldn't change a thing.
One day I will tell the story about how I was going to retire in 3 years with ETFs after making 50K in one year to losing 38k in 3 months on the 2015 crash of oil and gas
I wouldn't change a thing.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 5/18/16 at 12:58 pm to L S Usetheforce
I think I still have 6 shares after the splits. 
Posted on 5/18/16 at 3:16 pm to Grits N Shrimp
BOIL stock splits?
UNG hasn't split since 2012?
UNG hasn't split since 2012?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 3:37 pm to Iowa Golfer
ugaz/uwti
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