BOIL has become predictable | Page 12 | TigerDroppings.com
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sneakytiger
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
1472 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable

I would love to see a hot summer with record injections... show the market that power producers can and will switch back to coal at the drop of the hat.


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TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
672 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
LEGEAUX RECORD PROFITS THEN!!!


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Futures trading up slightly this evening in anticipation to tomorrow's report presumably.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
672 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
So how was this weeks report?


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Within the estimates, but higher storage injections than some bulls had anticipated. The estimated injection range was very broad, so it didn't take much to be within that range.

I haven't read through it all, but I will later on this evening.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17241 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
49 In vs 42 projected........

Only gonna get better from here.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17241 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
899 bcf in storage..........when we get to 1000 bcf ung gonna drop lock a rock.

I expect 1000 bcf 2nd week of May.
This post was edited on 4/25 at 9:16 am


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I saw the 42/49 figures in an article yesterday, but previously I had saw some estimates differing from this.

Doesn't matter. I don't think the story is how far below last year's levels and five year levels we are, I believe the story is actually when do the producers think they have enough stores to maintain their price level.

I also believe Use The Force Be With The Us is correct. When injections ramp up, at any significant level, the ETF's move more quickly then the cash and future's prices will. I'd anticipate they move dramatically.


rintintin
New Orleans Saints Fan
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
8837 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Every time I think the collapse has begun, it runs back up.

Argggggghhhhhh!!!!


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17241 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable


TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3901 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Call me crazy, but I'm thinking of snagging some more DGAZ this afternoon.


rintintin
New Orleans Saints Fan
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
8837 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
It is looking tempting back down at these levels. I wouldn't mind lowering my price average, although I feel like I already have enough invested in this play. Kinda torn.


Crbello4Hiceman
LSU Fan
Lurking
Member since May 2011
488 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Is this a good time to buy some KOLD? I've been watching it through this thread... it has been ranging as high as the low 40's lately....


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I think July is becoming more questionable, at least by July expiry, but with respect to shorting the paper, the month of July has little to do with the various etf and etn prices at that point.

There is a lot of future's monies on the sidelines right now. UNG backwardation would not be factual today, instead it would be a contangoed roll of near months contracts into higher priced 2 mos out contracts.

The market will eventually, I hope at least, understand that even with lower stored levels, the present pricing model is unsustainable. I think the money on the sidelines has figured it out. The bulls are largely hoping that the replenishment numbers keep getting compared to 5 year's ago. I would hope smarter head prevail. My bet is against the popular sentiment of today. It remains to be seen if fundamentals and adults win the day. They don't always in the commodities markets. The argument, ongoing, has always been chart readers outperform those that trade on fundamentals. This argument is especially strong in the futures market.


TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3901 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

It is looking tempting back down at these levels. I wouldn't mind lowering my price average, although I feel like I already have enough invested in this play. Kinda torn.


I ended up grabbing some more at $2.62. My basis should be around $3 now.
This post was edited on 4/29 at 7:55 pm


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
LINK

DGAZ is 100% NYN June. They don't disclose what they paid, but presumably they paid what it was trading for settlement date. Presumably they sold it. They don't disclose too much information on their website.
This post was edited on 4/29 at 8:58 pm


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Crbello4Hiceman
LSU Fan
Lurking
Member since May 2011
488 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
so, no? Not sure I followed alot of the response. As I understand, KOLD is double bear natural gas so if natural gas prices are supposed to go down this summer, it stands to reason KOLD will see 2x that effect, right?


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Generally KOLD should go down. KOLD wouldn't be my choice. It's a ETN. It is leveraged. It is really designed for short term plays. Mostly to be in and out of in one day.

Having said this, some guys on here seem to have done ok playing the etfs and etns that are designed for day trading by holding longer as the natural gas market has been unusual as of late. Most of these products suffer from contango, but given futures prices are higher in later months, recently the backwardation has helped them. They need to constantly roll their contracts prior to contract settlement.

If you look at the futures chain as of last night, contango is clearly back in play.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2210 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I bought a bunch more July puts.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17241 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Pretty sure injection will bet the 75 bcf suggested.... Lets see how fear mongers warrant our capabilities to produce.


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