I saw the 42/49 figures in an article yesterday, but previously I had saw some estimates differing from this.
Doesn't matter. I don't think the story is how far below last year's levels and five year levels we are, I believe the story is actually when do the producers think they have enough stores to maintain their price level.
I also believe Use The Force Be With The Us is correct. When injections ramp up, at any significant level, the ETF's move more quickly then the cash and future's prices will. I'd anticipate they move dramatically.
I think July is becoming more questionable, at least by July expiry, but with respect to shorting the paper, the month of July has little to do with the various etf and etn prices at that point.
There is a lot of future's monies on the sidelines right now. UNG backwardation would not be factual today, instead it would be a contangoed roll of near months contracts into higher priced 2 mos out contracts.
The market will eventually, I hope at least, understand that even with lower stored levels, the present pricing model is unsustainable. I think the money on the sidelines has figured it out. The bulls are largely hoping that the replenishment numbers keep getting compared to 5 year's ago. I would hope smarter head prevail. My bet is against the popular sentiment of today. It remains to be seen if fundamentals and adults win the day. They don't always in the commodities markets. The argument, ongoing, has always been chart readers outperform those that trade on fundamentals. This argument is especially strong in the futures market.
DGAZ is 100% NYN June. They don't disclose what they paid, but presumably they paid what it was trading for settlement date. Presumably they sold it. They don't disclose too much information on their website.
so, no? Not sure I followed alot of the response. As I understand, KOLD is double bear natural gas so if natural gas prices are supposed to go down this summer, it stands to reason KOLD will see 2x that effect, right?
Generally KOLD should go down. KOLD wouldn't be my choice. It's a ETN. It is leveraged. It is really designed for short term plays. Mostly to be in and out of in one day.
Having said this, some guys on here seem to have done ok playing the etfs and etns that are designed for day trading by holding longer as the natural gas market has been unusual as of late. Most of these products suffer from contango, but given futures prices are higher in later months, recently the backwardation has helped them. They need to constantly roll their contracts prior to contract settlement.
If you look at the futures chain as of last night, contango is clearly back in play.