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Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 3/13/15 at 10:36 pm to L S Usetheforce
Posted on 3/13/15 at 10:36 pm to L S Usetheforce
JMO but I think the spike on Wednesday was a reflection of the map you have up.
My thought process is that after Wednesday, people received better information and realized temps will not be that cold. Historical average temps for the NE is mid 50s(highs) and upper 30s(lows)for late March. Even if the temps are below average it wouldn't be a big gas draw. Temps would have to go way below the average for this map to make a major difference in the price of Nat Gas and I'm not seeing that in the forecast.
My prediction is that Nat Gas breaks through the 2.70ish support level this week which will send it "tanking" as I stated earlier. I'm a buyer of DGAZ and holding tight on my April UNG 13 Puts. Not a long term holder though as things change quickly.
My thought process is that after Wednesday, people received better information and realized temps will not be that cold. Historical average temps for the NE is mid 50s(highs) and upper 30s(lows)for late March. Even if the temps are below average it wouldn't be a big gas draw. Temps would have to go way below the average for this map to make a major difference in the price of Nat Gas and I'm not seeing that in the forecast.
My prediction is that Nat Gas breaks through the 2.70ish support level this week which will send it "tanking" as I stated earlier. I'm a buyer of DGAZ and holding tight on my April UNG 13 Puts. Not a long term holder though as things change quickly.
2
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:00 pm to L S Usetheforce
Rig count was released on Thursday per the report you have linked.
See link which specifically states Wednesday was due to weather... LINK
See link which specifically states Wednesday was due to weather... LINK
Posted on 3/13/15 at 11:11 pm to jlu03
I'm in line with your thinking - record production with weak demand and storage levels at the 5 year average could spell trouble for prices. The biggest unkown is gas fired generation, which set all time highs this winter. Does gas consumed for power generation dwindle with mild spring temps? Probably. Also, NE cash prices might move on some late season cold, but NE demand hasn't really moved the needle on NYMEX like in years past.
Posted on 3/14/15 at 11:33 am to sneakytiger
Here is what my experts from Henry Hub say........They say that if NG is going for 2.50, then wells are gonna get shut down. Much like the current problem with oil......They will cut supply let summer demand eat the glut and then starting pulling again come winter.........
Posted on 3/14/15 at 10:40 pm to L S Usetheforce
I don't doubt it. I'm a NG bull long term, would love to pick up UGAZ at $2 a share
Posted on 3/17/15 at 4:53 pm to sneakytiger
Still short DGAZ.
Posted on 3/18/15 at 12:53 pm to L S Usetheforce
quote:
L S Usetheforce
Damn you and your experts. My option getting killed right now.
This post was edited on 3/18/15 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 3/18/15 at 3:01 pm to jlu03
Early spring seems to be a natty gas bull market for reasons that make no sense to me. I'm up on my DGAZ short. I'm really on the fence as to whether I should buy to cover, or see if we get the typical early spring run.
Posted on 3/18/15 at 4:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
I would have to think tomorrows report drags NG down. How much it drops is the question.
Posted on 3/18/15 at 5:00 pm to Iowa Golfer
I'm scratching my head too. NG was down after hours into today, then energy shoots up across the board today. Is it the dollar? Weather? Storage? There is some late season cold forecast ed for the end of the month, but I also read yesterday that we'll probably see the first injection of the season next week.
Posted on 3/19/15 at 8:30 am to L S Usetheforce
Ok let's get down to brass tacks, what do you think NG does for the spring months and into Summer?
Do you think it's been beat down enough from the mild winter, and a hot summer should increase demand, thus increase price?
How comfortable are you with UGAZ at these levels?
Do you think it's been beat down enough from the mild winter, and a hot summer should increase demand, thus increase price?
How comfortable are you with UGAZ at these levels?
Posted on 3/19/15 at 8:39 am to rintintin
What are the estimates for today's report??
Posted on 3/19/15 at 8:40 am to jlu03
45-50
Posted on 3/19/15 at 8:44 am to sneakytiger
Hope that helps my PutsPosted on 3/19/15 at 8:57 am to rintintin
quote:
How comfortable are you with UGAZ at these levels?
I think UGaz hangs between 2.20 and 2.80 all summer........I don't think NG will creep below 2.50 per because like I said, it won't be worth it to pull it at those #s..........
Now HVAC and energy companies may have a say so in supply arena because last summer was mild by our standards..........if the summer is hot and AC's run them into supply you could see bulls running amuck.
In any instance, the NG market right now is more unpredictable to me that oil........I have my eyes set on utwi and a price per barrel of 39 on U.S. crude.......once that hits I'm gonna buy at least 20000 shares of UWTI and cross my fingers.
P.S. and by cross my fingers I mean fill up my buddies 32 foot contender, drive my truck fast, and run my AC at 69 all summer.
This post was edited on 3/19/15 at 9:03 am
Posted on 3/19/15 at 10:26 am to L S Usetheforce
bought:
UWTI at 1.93
sold:
UWTI at 2.00
profit of 3.63%
(but I'm still holding some UWTI DCA'd at 2.89)
UWTI at 1.93
sold:
UWTI at 2.00
profit of 3.63%
(but I'm still holding some UWTI DCA'd at 2.89)
Posted on 3/20/15 at 11:22 am to white perch
Just another day of insanity
Posted on 3/23/15 at 9:20 am to Iowa Golfer
Anyone think UGAZ is a buy at 2.50 or will it keep dropping?
Posted on 3/23/15 at 9:36 am to sneakytiger
quote:
Just another day of insanity
Just a heads up and I guess a neat feature, but that looks like a yahoo chart you linked. Whenever you open the thread, the chart changes. At least for me it said it was last updated at 10:34 EDT. That is the time.
I remember when you posted the chart it was down big and went up nicely.
Just interesting that the chart you posted will update in real time. Carry on.
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