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re: Are we teetering on the edge of a major pullback or crash in Real Estate?
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:06 am to ItNeverRains
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:06 am to ItNeverRains
Curious, where do you find your market forecasts and discussion? I'd be interested in reading that stuff if publicly available.
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:11 am to crazycubes
My neighbor across the street's lot was Model A for the bubble, it sold 4 freaking times in 1 year literally tripling! Those days were absurd. The top was what they sold the house for, and then the bubble popped. My neighbor bought it as a short sale for low $200s in mid 2012. Its now worth like $330k. It was the subject of a newspaper article about the bubble. This was just absurd, straight from the property appraisers:
5/16/2005 $575,000
9/10/2004 $223,900
5/28/2004 $157,000
4/19/2004 $105,000
1/30/2004 $72,500
This is a neighborhood that is now selling for $300-$425 or so.
So there could be a slight bubble, but again prices in my neighborhood are still 20-50% below what they were in 2004-2006. Now some areas of the country have increased over that for sure, but its absurd how high everywhere got back then.
5/16/2005 $575,000
9/10/2004 $223,900
5/28/2004 $157,000
4/19/2004 $105,000
1/30/2004 $72,500
This is a neighborhood that is now selling for $300-$425 or so.
So there could be a slight bubble, but again prices in my neighborhood are still 20-50% below what they were in 2004-2006. Now some areas of the country have increased over that for sure, but its absurd how high everywhere got back then.
This post was edited on 6/18/17 at 11:15 am
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:18 am to baldona
Well the whole state of Illinois is about to lose a whole bunch of public services. That should boost prices across different areas as there is a mass exodus from Illinois. The ramifications of a failed state will be interesting.
Being from Missouri I am not looking forward to it.
Times like these I wish each state actually had citizenship so wouldn't have to deal with a bunch of voters from Illinois tipping the scale over to the failed state policy. I imagine St. Louis real estate will jump, but who knows.
Being from Missouri I am not looking forward to it.
Times like these I wish each state actually had citizenship so wouldn't have to deal with a bunch of voters from Illinois tipping the scale over to the failed state policy. I imagine St. Louis real estate will jump, but who knows.
Posted on 6/18/17 at 12:27 pm to Serraneaux
$2k for a 2br in a happening city is pretty reasonable. Get a roommate and you get to live in a great area for $1k a month, or $12k annually.
A lot of recent college grads making $50k base, so about $35k take home. 12/35 = ~34% of take home. Plenty leftover to enjoy life.
Very few recent college grads are living by themselves.
A lot of recent college grads making $50k base, so about $35k take home. 12/35 = ~34% of take home. Plenty leftover to enjoy life.
Very few recent college grads are living by themselves.
Posted on 6/18/17 at 3:19 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
re we teetering on the edge of a major pullback or crash in Real Estate?
Curious, where do you find your market forecasts and discussion? I'd be interested in reading that stuff if publicly available.
The local hero here is a guy named Edsel Charles. He called the last bubble to the month and his algorithm for our market has been amazingly accurate.
Edsel Charles
Posted on 6/18/17 at 3:48 pm to lynxcat
That what's going to kill me. All of my friends live together so I'll be living alone once I get a new job. 1brs are expensive as frick
Posted on 6/18/17 at 4:01 pm to jimbeam
Yeah, 1br can get pretty steep. In the heart of town you are looking in the $1,700+ range.
I moved to a cheaper area and rent on my own...I pay $1,200.
I moved to a cheaper area and rent on my own...I pay $1,200.
Posted on 6/18/17 at 4:20 pm to lynxcat
I'm way more worried about commercial real estate properties. The retail bust is going to cause a lot of bankruptcies, which allows retailers to get out of their leases. If landlords cannot find new tenants, then the properties won't cash flow and a ton of commercial loans are highly leveraged CMBS loans that are non-recourse.
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:58 pm to crazycubes
Man I dunno. It's insane to me that there are as many $500k+ homes outside bw8 as there are, in what Iconsider non prime locations. It's not just one area either, expensive 5,000 sf mcmansions going up from Pearland, to Missouri City, Katy, cypress and spring, all seemingly with plenty of buyers. Who buys these
Posted on 6/19/17 at 10:29 pm to racknreel
quote:Famous last words before irrational exuberance takes hold.
it's different now
This is the 3rd longest expansion, and in ~6 months will be the 2nd longest. This isn't sustainable just like it wasn't the last time unemployment spiked during resession. Of course we're due for a correction. Over due.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 7:46 pm to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
I have 22-25 year old coworkers who make about 45k spending $1300 on rent. No thanks
You're correct. Suburbs would allow those dollars to go farther.
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