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re: Are we teetering on the edge of a major pullback or crash in Real Estate?

Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:06 am to
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
39582 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:06 am to
Curious, where do you find your market forecasts and discussion? I'd be interested in reading that stuff if publicly available.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20461 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:11 am to
My neighbor across the street's lot was Model A for the bubble, it sold 4 freaking times in 1 year literally tripling! Those days were absurd. The top was what they sold the house for, and then the bubble popped. My neighbor bought it as a short sale for low $200s in mid 2012. Its now worth like $330k. It was the subject of a newspaper article about the bubble. This was just absurd, straight from the property appraisers:

5/16/2005 $575,000
9/10/2004 $223,900
5/28/2004 $157,000
4/19/2004 $105,000
1/30/2004 $72,500

This is a neighborhood that is now selling for $300-$425 or so.

So there could be a slight bubble, but again prices in my neighborhood are still 20-50% below what they were in 2004-2006. Now some areas of the country have increased over that for sure, but its absurd how high everywhere got back then.
This post was edited on 6/18/17 at 11:15 am
Posted by zatetic
Member since Nov 2015
5677 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 11:18 am to
Well the whole state of Illinois is about to lose a whole bunch of public services. That should boost prices across different areas as there is a mass exodus from Illinois. The ramifications of a failed state will be interesting.

Being from Missouri I am not looking forward to it.
Times like these I wish each state actually had citizenship so wouldn't have to deal with a bunch of voters from Illinois tipping the scale over to the failed state policy. I imagine St. Louis real estate will jump, but who knows.
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24154 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 12:27 pm to
$2k for a 2br in a happening city is pretty reasonable. Get a roommate and you get to live in a great area for $1k a month, or $12k annually.

A lot of recent college grads making $50k base, so about $35k take home. 12/35 = ~34% of take home. Plenty leftover to enjoy life.

Very few recent college grads are living by themselves.
Posted by ItNeverRains
37069
Member since Oct 2007
25469 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

re we teetering on the edge of a major pullback or crash in Real Estate?
Curious, where do you find your market forecasts and discussion? I'd be interested in reading that stuff if publicly available.



The local hero here is a guy named Edsel Charles. He called the last bubble to the month and his algorithm for our market has been amazingly accurate.

Edsel Charles
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 3:48 pm to
That what's going to kill me. All of my friends live together so I'll be living alone once I get a new job. 1brs are expensive as frick
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24154 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 4:01 pm to
Yeah, 1br can get pretty steep. In the heart of town you are looking in the $1,700+ range.

I moved to a cheaper area and rent on my own...I pay $1,200.
Posted by Fat Harry
70115
Member since Mar 2005
2216 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 4:20 pm to
I'm way more worried about commercial real estate properties. The retail bust is going to cause a lot of bankruptcies, which allows retailers to get out of their leases. If landlords cannot find new tenants, then the properties won't cash flow and a ton of commercial loans are highly leveraged CMBS loans that are non-recourse.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2473 posts
Posted on 6/18/17 at 6:58 pm to
Man I dunno. It's insane to me that there are as many $500k+ homes outside bw8 as there are, in what Iconsider non prime locations. It's not just one area either, expensive 5,000 sf mcmansions going up from Pearland, to Missouri City, Katy, cypress and spring, all seemingly with plenty of buyers. Who buys these
Posted by 3en
Member since May 2015
507 posts
Posted on 6/19/17 at 10:29 pm to
quote:

it's different now
Famous last words before irrational exuberance takes hold.

This is the 3rd longest expansion, and in ~6 months will be the 2nd longest. This isn't sustainable just like it wasn't the last time unemployment spiked during resession. Of course we're due for a correction. Over due.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
68279 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

I have 22-25 year old coworkers who make about 45k spending $1300 on rent. No thanks

You're correct. Suburbs would allow those dollars to go farther.
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