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Message
LSU's defense isn't on par with past Tiger title contenders
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:44 pm
but it might not matter... LINK
So, how does the 2015 team compare to the others? With the caveats that the season is only half over and LSU's remaining schedule is harder than the slate it has faced so far, here are the numbers.
Overall
Year F/+ Rating SRS Rating Sagarin Predictor Rating
2015 43.7% (8) 17.57 (9) 83.96 (17)
2011 68.3% (1) 24.27 (2) 98.31 (2)
2007 63.2% (2) 18.41 (2) 92.43 (4)
2003 N/A 20.85 (2) 96.33 (2)
Interesting article.
What's your thoughts?
So, how does the 2015 team compare to the others? With the caveats that the season is only half over and LSU's remaining schedule is harder than the slate it has faced so far, here are the numbers.
Overall
Year F/+ Rating SRS Rating Sagarin Predictor Rating
2015 43.7% (8) 17.57 (9) 83.96 (17)
2011 68.3% (1) 24.27 (2) 98.31 (2)
2007 63.2% (2) 18.41 (2) 92.43 (4)
2003 N/A 20.85 (2) 96.33 (2)
Interesting article.
What's your thoughts?
This post was edited on 10/21/15 at 3:48 pm
14
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:49 pm to jmcs68
I don't care what any numbers say, this defense is good enough to win us every football game that we will play in.
Take away the special teams play in the UF game and the score might have looked a whole lot more lopsided. This defense has come up with 100% of the stops that we needed them to make this season.
Take away the special teams play in the UF game and the score might have looked a whole lot more lopsided. This defense has come up with 100% of the stops that we needed them to make this season.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:50 pm to jmcs68
quote:
What's your thoughts?
Our secondary needs to perform better.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:51 pm to jmcs68
quote:
What's your thoughts?
ST will cause a loss at some point if it doesn't improve
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:52 pm to jmcs68
defense
total d - 15th ncaa (3rd in the SEC)
rushing d - 8th ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
passing d - 45th ncaa
sacks - 24th ncaa (17 sacks)
1st down d - 17th ncaa (4th in the SEC)
turnover margin - 20th ncaa (1st in the SEC)
offense
total o - 28th ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
rushing o - 4th ncaa (1st in the SEC)
sacks allowed - 23rd ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
scoring offense - 20th ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
passing efficiency - 50th ncaa
3rd down conversion - 39th ncaa (3rd in the SEC)
total d - 15th ncaa (3rd in the SEC)
rushing d - 8th ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
passing d - 45th ncaa
sacks - 24th ncaa (17 sacks)
1st down d - 17th ncaa (4th in the SEC)
turnover margin - 20th ncaa (1st in the SEC)
offense
total o - 28th ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
rushing o - 4th ncaa (1st in the SEC)
sacks allowed - 23rd ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
scoring offense - 20th ncaa (2nd in the SEC)
passing efficiency - 50th ncaa
3rd down conversion - 39th ncaa (3rd in the SEC)
This post was edited on 10/21/15 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:55 pm to jmcs68
Teams have won with worse defenses
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:56 pm to jmcs68
The '03 and '07 and '11 defenses come along either rarely or never for most programs not named LSU or Alabama. 2006 with LaRon, J Daniels, and M Oliver was pretty stout.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:58 pm to jmcs68
quote:
What's your thoughts?
Sagarin's algorithm will adjust once stronger teams are played.
Still a top 10 defense. I'd be curious to know how many snaps per game each side of the ball is taking.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:02 pm to jmcs68
I think special teams has set the defense up with shite field position all season, and that hasn't helped.
Pass defense will improve as Mills gets his sea legs back.
Our season pivots November 7th, and that game will pivot on turnovers and 3rd and long efficiency.
Pass defense will improve as Mills gets his sea legs back.
Our season pivots November 7th, and that game will pivot on turnovers and 3rd and long efficiency.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:04 pm to jmcs68
The 2007 defense struggled a lot in the 2nd half of the season. In the last 7 games of the regular season, outside of LA Tech, they gave up at least 24 to every team. 50 to Arky and 43 to KY in the losses. This 2015 defense isn't perfect, but's it good enough to win it all as long as the offense continues to be as efficient as they have been. Also, the special teams HAS to help out with field position.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:09 pm to beauchristopher
quote:
turnover margin - 20th ncaa (1st in the SEC)
this has everything to do with our Offense and not our defense forcing a ton of turnovers.
I expect our running backs to never fumble. I did not expect Harris to be this awesome at keeping the ball in our hands.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:10 pm to Rebel
quote:
Sagarin's algorithm will adjust once stronger teams are played
No doubt.
It's going to be a very interesting next couple of games.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:14 pm to jmcs68
Yes those are the cold hard facts OP. Maybe you should look at offensive numbers since 2012. Yes, a big increase.
Having said that, the LSU D doesn't have the depth of those other teams, but the recruiting is looking up.
Having said that, the LSU D doesn't have the depth of those other teams, but the recruiting is looking up.
This post was edited on 10/21/15 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:22 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
this has everything to do with our Offense and not our defense forcing a ton of turnovers.
We've actually gotten a lot less turnovers than I would expect based on the number of bad teams/QBs we've played against. We've caused 7 fumbles and only recovered 1, which is a crazy stat. By comparison, last year's team got 10 of 18, 2013 got 8 of 22, 2012 got 15 of 22, and 2011 got 12 of 29.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:24 pm to beauchristopher
quote:
scoring offense - 20th ncaa (1st in the SEC)
LSU is second in the SEC in scoring behind Ole Miss.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:25 pm to jmcs68
The article kind a makes our defense seem average (when it's above average) and our offense as pretty good (when it's very good).
In fact.. The difference between yards gained per rush and yards given up per opponents rush is 3.83.
That's, by far, the highest it's been since at least 2003. 2003 was the second highest at 2.1.
The defense should be plenty to keep us in any game that the offense isn't completely shut down in. Otherwise a 2003/2011 defense wouldn't even really help.
In fact.. The difference between yards gained per rush and yards given up per opponents rush is 3.83.
That's, by far, the highest it's been since at least 2003. 2003 was the second highest at 2.1.
The defense should be plenty to keep us in any game that the offense isn't completely shut down in. Otherwise a 2003/2011 defense wouldn't even really help.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:27 pm to tgerb8
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 12:04 am
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:32 pm to The Baker
Pleased with the D overall,
Love the pressure up front,but surprised that the back end isn't shutting it down, even with the push?
ST needs to be fixed !
Love the pressure up front,but surprised that the back end isn't shutting it down, even with the push?
ST needs to be fixed !
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:36 pm to trooploop
thank you! i missed them, still 20th in the ncaa 2nd in the sec in scoring O
pretty remarkable though
pretty remarkable though
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:41 pm to jmcs68
Jalen Mills should get a lot of time in the WKU game. A healthy Mills will be a boost to the defense.
I'm not going to comment on Steele yet, but I hope he throws out the Chavis book.
I didn't like Chavis at Tennessee, didn't like him at LSU... I love him at eaTme.
I'm not going to comment on Steele yet, but I hope he throws out the Chavis book.
I didn't like Chavis at Tennessee, didn't like him at LSU... I love him at eaTme.
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