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Interesting perceptions vs. reality regarding the Miles and Orgeron offenses
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:44 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:44 am
Total yards, yards per play, and scoring offense are hugely in favor of Orgeron so far in 2016. However, reading other threads it I find it interesting how perception has become reality with respect to HOW LSU is getting to those numbers.
I've seen people suggest it is the result of significantly more plays, yet LSU is averaging less than 4 plays more with Orgeron than they did with Miles - hardly a noticeable number over the course of a game.
Others have suggested it is more passing plays - LSU is averaging less than half an attempt more with Orgeron than Miles. In fact, LSU is actually passing the ball 40.4% of the time with Orgeron and passed it 41.9% of the time with Miles.
This offense is still as run oriented as ever. The biggest change in personnel groupings has been that Orgeron uses the single-back, double TE set much more frequently than Les did. Orgeron also, and surprisingly, uses the 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB set much less frequently than Les did. The lauded 4 WR set was used early but is statistically insignificant at this point.
Even if you get down to situational play calling, the numbers aren't nearly as different as they feel. Orgeron runs the ball on 62% of first downs. Miles ran it on 66% of first downs.
Granted, the defenses we've played in the last 3 games aren't as good as the group from the first 4, but that doesn't explain ALL of the massive improvements in total yards, yards per play, and points. However, when you dig into the more advanced stats the numbers aren't all that different, even though it feels much different when watching the game. We line up in double TE sets more now than ever. We used 3+ WRs more with Les than we've done with Orgeron. Where are the tangible, significant differences in the two systems? I know Orgeron can't exactly overhaul the entire offensive side of the ball, but are all the impressive numbers really the result of such relatively minor tweaks?
I've seen people suggest it is the result of significantly more plays, yet LSU is averaging less than 4 plays more with Orgeron than they did with Miles - hardly a noticeable number over the course of a game.
Others have suggested it is more passing plays - LSU is averaging less than half an attempt more with Orgeron than Miles. In fact, LSU is actually passing the ball 40.4% of the time with Orgeron and passed it 41.9% of the time with Miles.
This offense is still as run oriented as ever. The biggest change in personnel groupings has been that Orgeron uses the single-back, double TE set much more frequently than Les did. Orgeron also, and surprisingly, uses the 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB set much less frequently than Les did. The lauded 4 WR set was used early but is statistically insignificant at this point.
Even if you get down to situational play calling, the numbers aren't nearly as different as they feel. Orgeron runs the ball on 62% of first downs. Miles ran it on 66% of first downs.
Granted, the defenses we've played in the last 3 games aren't as good as the group from the first 4, but that doesn't explain ALL of the massive improvements in total yards, yards per play, and points. However, when you dig into the more advanced stats the numbers aren't all that different, even though it feels much different when watching the game. We line up in double TE sets more now than ever. We used 3+ WRs more with Les than we've done with Orgeron. Where are the tangible, significant differences in the two systems? I know Orgeron can't exactly overhaul the entire offensive side of the ball, but are all the impressive numbers really the result of such relatively minor tweaks?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:48 am to slackster
quote:
Even if you get down to situational play calling, the numbers aren't nearly as different as they feel. Orgeron runs the ball on 62% of first downs. Miles ran it on 66% of first downs.
I would say those numbers are a little off because in Coach O's game we've had big leads in the 4th and running the clock out. I'd like to see the numbers for just the first half of games. We are certainly throwing the ball on first down more early in the game.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:48 am to slackster
Good post. I think one of the big difference makers in the last three games is the defensive performance and their ability to adjust at halftime. Until the last Ole Miss possession on Saturday, the D held them to 37 total yards and 0 points in the second half. When the D is playing lights out it takes some pressure off the offense and allows them to relax a little, which I believe translates to better execution.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 10:51 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:48 am to slackster
We're not running it any less than before. We are just less predicable and spreading the ball out.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:49 am to slackster
a quarterback that can hit short and intermediate targets helps a lot. Just to get the defense honest.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:50 am to slackster
Scheme!! It's about play selection out of same sets!
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:50 am to slackster
Look at who those passes are being targeted to. Under miles it was 15 and 83 95%. We are distributing around more and making the defense cover all of the field.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 10:53 am to slackster
quote:
I've seen people suggest it is the result of significantly more plays, yet LSU is averaging less than 4 plays more with Orgeron than they did with Miles - hardly a noticeable number over the course of a game.
It's a given when you consider the yards LF7 has been getting as a result of more open running lanes, as well as more production from the passing game, which has given us fewer plays to score with than up the middle off tackle right, off tackle left, and failed bombs to Dupre.
The fact we're putting more points on the board makes this a difficult indicator to follow.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 10:56 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:00 am to redfishfan
quote:
I would say those numbers are a little off because in Coach O's game we've had big leads in the 4th and running the clock out. I'd like to see the numbers for just the first half of games. We are certainly throwing the ball on first down more early in the game.
Tough to break it down by just first downs in the first half, but overall on first half plays we are throwing the ball 46% of the time with Orgeron and 42% of the time with Miles this year.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:02 am to slackster
I think a lot of it is the TYPE of plays being called/run. For instance, Saturday we had a 10 point lead, 8 minutes to play in the 4th, 3rd down and 4 on the OM 13. Les NEVER does anything but run Leonard up the middle. If he gets 4, we keep running until the end zone or throw a fade if we get 3rd-goal. Instead, we ran a slant to Dupre over the middle of the field. Granted, it was a poor pass and great catch by Malachi, but the point is we went against tendencies and converted the 1st. That led to a TD, 17 point lead and game over.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:04 am to OldManRiver
3 turnovers by LSU made that game way closer than it should have been.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:04 am to slackster
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/12/21 at 7:35 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:04 am to slackster
quote:
We line up in double TE sets more now than ever.
But we actually throw to those tight ends and our fullbacks now. We're running formations that scream traditional power run play, but passing out of them which is huge. Keeps the defense guessing when we line up like that and allows us to run more effectively out of it.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:05 am to sjmabry
quote:
We're not running it any less than before. We are just less predicable and spreading the ball out.
I think this is my biggest gripe with Les. We are still very much a running team and the core identity is still there. We only needed a few tweaks but he was so damn stubborn
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:05 am to slackster
The stats don't have to tell me what I can see....we are primarily not attacking the interior of a defense selectively.
We are choosing mismatches in defensive alignment, changing play calls at the line, and dictating a pace on offense. Running to the weakside, using counter and misdirection more frequently....
In addition, we have longer sustained drives leading to a fresher defense which in turn has produced better results in the 4th quarter.
We didn't score a td in the 4th quarter this year until Miles left....most important stat.
We are choosing mismatches in defensive alignment, changing play calls at the line, and dictating a pace on offense. Running to the weakside, using counter and misdirection more frequently....
In addition, we have longer sustained drives leading to a fresher defense which in turn has produced better results in the 4th quarter.
We didn't score a td in the 4th quarter this year until Miles left....most important stat.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 11:07 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:07 am to slackster
We might be throwing it the same amount of times percentage wise, but the difference is we are COMPLETING a greater percentage for more yards. A very welcome change
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:07 am to slackster
Speaking of groupings, is JD Moore injured? The times I noticed we had a FB it was Mouton last weekend.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:10 am to slackster
Run run pass
We're not seeing this anymore. It's also not ONLY deep bombs. We also have a competent QB now who can move in the pocket, complete short passes, is allowed to throw to the middle of the field
Statistically it may look the same, but the play on the field says it all.
We're not seeing this anymore. It's also not ONLY deep bombs. We also have a competent QB now who can move in the pocket, complete short passes, is allowed to throw to the middle of the field
Statistically it may look the same, but the play on the field says it all.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:10 am to slackster
Interestingly, we've had 9 TDs (3 pass, 6 rush) of 35 or more yards in the 3 games under Orgeron, and 2 TDs (1 pass, 1 rush) of 35 or more yards in the 4 games under Miles. Obviously that impacts the number of plays run, as well as play selection versus a scoring drive that culminates in a shorter TD.
Whatever the case may be, I like it.
Whatever the case may be, I like it.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 11:13 am to slackster
I know you're solid on posts like these, but what is your source/methods for getting these figures?
These numbers make it hard to pinpoint what's new/better, but something definitely is. I agree with the poster that said predicting the play based on the formation is harder now than it was. TEs have come alive. Dupre seems to be almost exclusively slot now, which is a great position for him. Gice and Fournette on the field at the same time is a no brainer that didn't seem to happen much if at all before O/Ens.
I'm sure Etling has a lot to do with it too. He has so much better pocket presence and is excellent on his reads. He plays less timid, which I think was the root of Harris' issues.
These numbers make it hard to pinpoint what's new/better, but something definitely is. I agree with the poster that said predicting the play based on the formation is harder now than it was. TEs have come alive. Dupre seems to be almost exclusively slot now, which is a great position for him. Gice and Fournette on the field at the same time is a no brainer that didn't seem to happen much if at all before O/Ens.
I'm sure Etling has a lot to do with it too. He has so much better pocket presence and is excellent on his reads. He plays less timid, which I think was the root of Harris' issues.
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